While the Denver Broncos were enjoying their BYE week and still riding high on their big win over the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday, there were some developments in the AFC playoff picture. Unfortunately, the Broncos’ reign as the number one seed in the AFC lasted just one week due to the New England Patriots improving to 10-2 with a victory over the Bengals. However, the Broncos are the 2 seed due to the Colts blowing a 4th quarter lead to the Chiefs
and falling to them overtime.We also had a change in the AFC North with the Ravens jumping the Steelers as the division winner, while the Texans and Chiefs keep their postseason hopes alive with big wins.
With all that said, let us take a look at the playoff picture in the AFC and how things may shake out as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday.
Division Leaders
1. New England Patriots (10-2)
With a win over the Bengals, the Patriots are the first team in the NFL to reach 10 wins, and for now at least, jumped the Broncos in the AFC standings as the number one seed.
Second-year quarterback Drake Maye is playing at a high level, their defense is playing well, and Head Coach Mike Vrabel has this team playing good football. On top of that, they have a favorable schedule and have been taking care of business all season, and now are one of the favorites to be the number one seed in the AFC for the playoffs.
Next up for the Patriots is a two-win Giants team before their much-needed BYE, followed by two big games vs. the Bills and at the Ravens, before finishing up their year against the Jets and Dolphins. How they handle the Bills and Ravens may decide how the top of the AFC shakes out at the end of the season.
Remaining Games: vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, and vs. Dolphins
2. Denver Broncos (9-2)
The Broncos players, coaches, and fan base were riding high this week after their big win vs. the Chiefs last Sunday and were enjoying their time off this week before their second-half postseason run. As I mentioned prior, they did fall from the 1 seed to the 2 seed due to the Patriots winning, but are still very much in the conversation.
Coming out of the bye, they should be getting back All-Pro and reigning Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Patrick Surtain II, along with linebacker Alex Singleton, tight end Nate Adkins, and hopefully, edge rusher Jonah Elliss. These additions will help an already elite defense while giving the offense a key blocking specialist back.
They have back-to-back road games vs. the Commanders and Raiders, followed by back-to-back home games vs. the Packers and Jaguars. After that, they have a Christmas Night game vs. the Chiefs and finish out the year with a game vs. the Chargers. It won’t be an easy road ahead, but the Broncos should be favored and competitive in all their remaining games and have a good shot at being the number one seed in the AFC.
Remaining Games: at Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs (Christmas Night), and vs. Chargers
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
The Colts looked set to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead and end their postseason hopes, but they blew a two-score 4th quarter lead and lost in overtime. They had a 20-9 lead in the 4th quarter and had multiple chances to put the game away, but blew it. The offense failed to do much at all while the defense gave up multiple big chunks to Patrick Mahomes and allowed him to lead a classic comeback to beat them in overtime.
With a win, they would have moved back to the number one seed, but a loss knocked them to the 3 seed. On top of that, they fell a game closer to the Jaguars and Texans, who both won this week and have two games each upcoming with the Colts. It’s safe to say that the AFC South is far from decided despite the Colts’ hot start.
I say this because the Colts started a brutal stretch of games this week, starting in Arrowhead, that includes two vs. the Jaguars, two vs. the Texans, a road game vs. the Seahawks, and hosting the 49ers. This loss, added with their brutal stretch of games, likely knocks them out of the running for the number one seed in the AFC, and we could even see them lose their division lead.
Remaining Games: vs. Texans, at Jags, at Seattle, vs. Niners, vs. Jags, and at Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Welcome to the party, Baltimore!
After starting the year 1-5, the Ravens have now won 5 straight games, including a win over the Jets this past week, and found themselves back at the top of the AFC North. The return of Lamar Jackson sparked this 5-game win streak, and they now appear to be the favorites in the AFC North.
While the Steelers are free-falling and dealing with injuries to quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Ravens are ascending, and now, both teams sit at 6-5 at the top of the AFC North. This is a division race that is likely far from over and one that could be decided during the regular season finale when the Ravens will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
With that said, the road ahead will not be easy for the Ravens. They will host the return of Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Thanksgiving Night before a home game vs. the rival Steelers. After that, they face Burrow and the Bengals again on the road, host Drake Maye and the Patriots, before back-to-back road games vs. the Packers and Steelers.
This division race is far from over.
Remaining Games: vs. Bengals, vs. Steelers, at Bengals, vs. Patriots, at Packers, and at Steelers
Wildcard Teams
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Last week, the Chargers were blown out by the Jaguars and had an extra week to think about it due to being on their BYE this past week. Despite this, they saw themselves move up from the 6th seed to the 5th seed in the AFC thanks to the Bills losing on Thursday Night.
The Chargers have dealt with their typical injuries this season and now have lost both starting tackles for the year. This has led to quarterback Justin Herbert being pressured and hot constantly, and was a big reason why they were blown out vs. the Jaguars. They should be getting back rookie Omarion Hampton, but we’ll see if they can overcome these injuries to two key players on their offensive line.
Coming out of the BYE, they will host the struggling Raiders before they start a brutal stretch of games they will decide if they make the postseason or not. After the Raiders, they will host the Eagles, then have back-to-back road games vs. the Chiefs and Cowboys, a home game vs. the Texans, before finishing out the year on the road vs. the Broncos.
Good Luck.
Remaining Games: vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, and at Broncos
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
The Jags followed their blowout victory over the Chargers with an overtime victory over the Cardinals. The scrappy Jaguars are now just a game back of the Colts, a team they still have to place twice, and have a real shot at winning the AFC South.
Head Coach Liam Coen has this team playing good football right now while leaning on quarterback Trevor Lawrence, a strong run game, and a good defense. They have big wins over the Chargers and Chiefs and have their eyes set on the Colts and the AFC South division title.
Next week, they have a road game vs. the Titans, followed by a key home game vs. the division-leading Colts. After that, they host the Jets, have key road games vs. the Broncos and Colts before ending the year vs. the Titans.
Remaining Games: at Titans, vs. Colts, vs. Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, and vs. Titans
7. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
The Bills are coming off a tough Thursday Night loss to the Texans and don’t look like the Super Bowl contenders that we are used to seeing. Quarterback Josh Allen is great, but his lack of playmakers and a defense decimated by injuries has the Bills on the verge of being out of the playoffs.
Their hopes of winning the AFC East are slim right now, and they have the Texans, Steelers, and Chiefs on their backs looking to jump them for the final playoff spot. They’ll need Allen to carry them to a postseason berth and hope their defense and playmakers can step up enough during these final six games of the season.
Things don’t get easier for the Bills as they will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a game that will have some important postseason stakes on the line. After that, they host Joe Burrow and the Bengals, have a key road game vs. the Patriots, face the Browns on the road, and then finish out the year with home games vs. the Eagles and Jets.
Remaining Games: at Pittsburgh, vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, and vs. Jets
The Rest
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5): With Aaron Rodgers sidelined, backup Mason Rudolph struggled to get much going vs. the Bears and failed to lead a 4th quarter comeback. Now, they fell from the 4 seed all the way to the 8 seed and out of the playoffs due to the Ravens winning. The AFC North race is far from over, but they first have a big game vs. the Bills this Sunday, which could be a bit of a “must-win” for them.
9. Houston Texans (6-5): Despite being down quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans have won three straight games and are just two games back of the Colts in the AFC South. They have an elite defense and should be getting back Stroud this coming week and figure to make some noise in the AFC before all is settled. They play the Colts twice and face the Chiefs and Chargers on the road. If they want to make the playoffs, they’ll need to win these games.
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5): They were down 20-9 in the 4th quarter to the Colts, and things were looking bleak. However, the Colts choked the game away, and Patrick Mahomes led one of his signature comebacks to keep the Chiefs’ postseason hopes alive. Despite that, they fell a spot in the standings and are currently the 10th seed in the AFC and are coming up on a short week. They will face the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in what figures to be another must-win game for them, followed by games vs. the Chargers and Texans. They have little room for error, but if they can go on a bit of a winning streak here, they probably find themselves back in the postseason conversation.
