Perspective Check: Four teams with more wins than the Cubs, 91.6 win pace. The Cubs and Phillies had been matching each other, seemingly daily. But the Phillies finally lost on a day when the Cubs won and so the Cubs now lead them by 1.5 games for the top Wild Card spot (though they own the tiebreaker with the Phillies anyway). The Cubs are 3.5 games clear of the Cardinals who sit fourth in the WC race. The Cub run differential sits fifth, behind the three NL division leaders and the Yankees. The Yankees largely
gave up on winning games a couple of weeks ago, so it’s hard to imagine they will stay up there. Of course, the Cubs have no pitching, so it’s hard to imagine them staying up there either.
This game was a familiar “shape.” The two most common types of wins for the Cubs this year are late team at-bat wins and games where they score nine or more. So this was another nine or more run outburst. The Cubs are now 15-0 when they score nine runs (and 21-1 when they score at least 8). The story isn’t how good the record is, even at seven runs, you should win the overwhelming majority of the time. The story is how often they’ve had these huge games. The Cubs are 29-3 when scoring seven or more runs. So 32 of 92 games, more than a third, have seen seven or more runs. They are 36-4 when scoring six or more. You get the picture. When the offense finds that higher gear, the team wins. But you can flip it, if the team doesn’t score six runs, they are just 16-36. You want that equilibrium point lower. But that’s a sign of how shaky the pitching staff is.
This game displayed so much of 2026 baseball. Colin Rea got knocked around a little bit, though he was only charged with three runs. He ends up coming away with a win because the offense was outstanding, riding a barrage of homers to a win. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit two of those homers, becoming the first 20/20 player in 2026 and looking like a near lock for 30/30 if he’s healthy. I saw someone describe PCA as the highest ceiling Cub player he’s ever seen. I find no faults in that argument. We have seen some amazing Cub seasons through the years. But we haven’t really seen an all-around gifted Cub player like PCA is, maybe ever. And I say that with someone who was whole heartedly on the Kris Bryant bandwagon a decade ago.
When asked, I’ve said this on social media. I do think at some point there is a path for PCA to be in the MVP conversation. It will always be Shohei Ohtani’s to lose. When you are a once in several generations player, you should probably win the MVP every year. I hated it when they used to pass around the MVP in the NBA when it was clear that Michael Jordan was the best player on the planet every year. At some point, being able to hit and field has to have some measurement against being able to hit and pitch. That said, Ohtani has been a very good pitcher and one of the best hitters on the planet for a while. I feel like the “at some point” involves Pete getting way beyond Ohtani’s hitting numbers. People generally don’t go beyond Ohtani’s hitting numbers, but if he could do that and play platinum glove defense, I would think it isn’t crazy to have the discussion.
At the end of the day I don’t care. I mean I’d love for Pete to grab some hardware along the way. But I want to see the Cubs win championships. An MVP trophy does nothing to make that happen. I do very much want to see Pete play the next two and a half months the way he’s played the last month and a half. What should be a 35/35/100/90 type of season helps buoy an entire offense. Besides, Platinum Gloves and Silver Sluggers are hardware too. Go get those awards.
Getting back to the game, Cub lefties had a rough night. Drew Pomeranz allowed two runs on three hits, one a homer. Caleb Thielbar allowed a pair of homers. I know they were both in strike throwing mode with a growing lead. But any way you slice it, not optimal. The two lefties combined to face 13 batters, allow six hits, four runs, three homers. Ouch. Most nights, that gets your brains beat in.
The Cubs only had eight hits, though they drew four walks. The offensive output was what it was because the team slugged five homers. Rough night for Alex Bregman after coming away with a couple of RBI in the series opener. But he did hit two very long, loud outs. You do ultimately need to see his power effect games, so I’ll take the loud outs.
Three Positives:
- Obligatory Pete in the top spot. Two hits and a walk. Three runs scored. Oh yeah, both hits were homers.
- Jacob Webb had a very mundane ninth inning, getting three ground outs for his third save to tie the team lead.
- Carson Kelly had a homer and a walk, scored twice.
Game 92, July 8: Cubs 9, Orioles 7 (52-40)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.296). 2-4, 2 HR, BB, 2 RBI, 3 R
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.129). 1-3, HR, BB, RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.091). IP, 3 BF (Sv 4)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.049). 5.1 IP, 22 BF, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 2 K (W 7-5)
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.040). 1-4, K
- Kid: Caleb Thielbar (-.031). IP, 6 BF, 3 H, 2 R, 2 K
WPA Notes: Thielbar’s inning is a reminder of how improbable large comebacks are. He allows two homers, cutting a four run lead to two. That feels like a massive swing, but in the eighth inning, that moved a 4 percent chance to win to 7.2 percent.
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Alonso’s two-run homer in the fourth inning gave the Orioles a brief two-run lead. (.190)
Cubs Play of the Game: A minor oddity in that this is the third straight game where the Cubs have won and not recorded the biggest WPA play. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s tie-breaking, fifth inning homer. (.150)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 91 Winner: Matthew Boyd received 97 percent of 73 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Michael Busch +14
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Dansby Swanson -9
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Caleb Thielbar -15
- Seiya Suzuki -16.5
This is what this list looks like when you have one dominant player and a wide supporting cast.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series was moved to this afternoon (12:35 p.m. CT) due to anticipated evening storms in the Baltimore area. The Cubs can pick up another sweep. A battle of lefties. Newcomer David Peterson (4-7, 6.75) tries to bounce back from getting rocked last time out (10 ER in 3.2 IP). Former 2017 first round pick of the Marlins (13th overall) Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.70) goes for the Orioles. Trevor has really turned things around, he is 4-1 with a 2.38 over his last seven starts (41.2 IP). For the third straight game, I’ll note this is not am optimal matchup on paper.
