Why is it so hard to find good outfield help these days?
Since 2012, the Phillies have struggled mightily to find quality baseball players to man that vast expanse of green. There have been 83 players who played at least 30% of their games in the Phils’ outfield since the 102-win, 2011 season. It’s a fascinating list.
While he’s no longer primarily an outfielder, Bryce Harper unsurprisingly leads the pack with 29.2 WAR and a 143 OPS+, and Kyle Schwarber is No. 2 at 13.4 WAR. Odubel Herrera, despite
not playing for the Phillies since being released during the 2022 season, is still at No. 3, with 13.3 WAR. Brandon Marsh is No. 4, at 9.2 WAR and Ben Revere, their starting center fielder from 2013-15, is No. 5, at 4.9.
That’s right. Ben Revere. The 5th-best Phillies outfielder of the last 15 years. Soak it in.
Here are some other highlights from the list:
- Johan Rojas (3.4), Marlon Byrd (3.3), Andrew McCutchen (2.8), Aaron Altherr (2.2) and Juan Pierre (2.1) are the only other outfielders to amass more than 2.0 WAR since 2012. Byrd and Pierre compiled theirs in just one season.
- Derek Hill, a bench outfielder this year, was tied with former first round bust Adam Haseley for 12th with 1.4 WAR.
- Daniel Nava (1.2), who played 80 games as a part-timer with the 2017 Phils, was worth more than Nick Castellanos (1.1).
- Just 20 of the 83 players listed was worth at least 1.0 WAR.
- Remember Bradley Zimmer? He played nine games for the ‘22 NL champs and put up 0.3 WAR, tied with Pedro Florimon, Peter Bourjos and David Dahl for 30th.
- Darin Ruf is 9th on this list in HRs (35), but with a -0.6 WAR.
- Corey Dickerson has the 2nd-highest OPS (.886) among outfielders with at least 100 PAs. The player with the lowest is Moniak (.386). Yep, that’s lower than Michael Martinez (.432) and Tony Gwynn Jr. (.455)
- Odubel Herrera is 2nd in hits (791), Domonic Brown is 7th (333), Scott Kingery is 9th (239).
- Nick Williams is the worst outfielder over the last 15 years in terms of WAR (-1.5). Tyler Goeddel (-1.3) and Cody Asche (-1.0), are the others with at least -1.0 WAR.
- These 8 players played less than 10 games in the outfield: Oscar Mercado (1), Steve Susdorf (3), Jordan Danks (4), Steward Berroa (6), Jorge Bonifacio (7), Simon Muzziotti (9), Jason Pridie (9), Zimmer (9).
- Remember these guys? Kyle Garlick, Casper Wells, Jose Pirela, Ezequiel Carrera, Brian Bogusevic, Dylan Cozens, Darnell Sweeney, Cameron Perkins, Matt Joyce, Ty kelly, Jimmy Paredes, Tony Gwynn Jr., Phil Gosselin.
The situation isn’t getting any better.
The minor leagues provide little hope of internal improvements. The Phillies tried to promote Felix Reyes and Gabriel Rincones this season and, to their credit, both made a pretty fun initial splash.
Unfortunately, neither proved they could handle big league pitching and were shuttled to Lehigh Valley not long after their arrival. They’re not in the plans for 2027.
The Phillies received just 1.1 fWAR from their outfielders last year. Only two teams got less production from that position: the Rockies (0.7) and Reds (0.4). Harper’s 1.1 fWAR while playing outfield saved them, otherwise Hill’s 0.7 would have led all Phillies outfielders last year. Their .686 OPS ranked 5th-worst and, again, that was only aided by Harper’s inclusion (.867) over the final two months.
Of all the areas on the field, this is the area that needs the most improvement but also has the greatest opportunity to see change. That being said, Dave Dombrowski needs to make some tough calls over the next few weeks.
What do they do with Brandon Marsh?
After starting in right field for the NL All Stars, Marsh’s end-of-year numbers ended up being the worst of his career (.260/.304/.408, 0.3 fWAR). His second half struggles have been well-chronicled and he’s due to see a raise in arbitration this year to around $8.3 million, which is a hefty price tag for a player 28-year-old coming off his worst season.
The Phillies have been trying to make a platoon with Marsh work for more than four years now. It’s not working. Time to shake things up.
Is Justin Crawford strictly a platoon player? And is he a long-term plan in center?
Crawford’s rookie season was… fine. He was not a disaster defensively in center field, but his -8 Defensive Runs Saved ranked 16th out of 17 qualified players at that position, and his -2 Outs Above Average was 14th. His 82 wRC+ ranked 37th out of 54 players with at least 100 plate appearances as a center fielder, but his one great attribute (that isn’t likely repeatable) was his ability to hit with runners in scoring position (35-for-100, .350 AVG).
He will never be a productive enough offensive player to shift to a corner spot, unless the Phillies were somehow to acquire an offense-first center fielder. Which means, you have to find major contributors in the corners and platoon Crawford in center, hoping his defense improves.
Bottom line, Crawford is not going to be an impact player, even if he hits his ceiling. He’s Ben Revere. Maybe.
Do they keep Bryan de la Cruz and/or Derek Hill?
If so, what are their rolls? Both played better than expected when called upon last year. De la Cruz actually had better numbers against right-handers (.333/.378/.513, .891 OPS) than he did lefties (.222/.317/.306, .623 OPS). Hill was better against southpaws (.781 OPS) compared to righties (.647), and would make for a decent pairing with Justin Crawford in center next year as a platoon-mate. Hill’s defense is well above average, as we saw on numerous occasions last season. But both could be solid bench contributors.
Are there answers in free agency?
Surprisingly, there are a couple. Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki checks a lot of the boxes for a corner outfielder. He was worth 5.1 WAR in 143 games his season, with 26 HRs, 31 doubles, 86 RBIs and an .841 OPS. He’s a very disciplined hitter who routinely has one of the lowest chase rates in the Majors. He’ll be 32 next season.
Seattle’s Randy Arozarena had an even better year, in a more difficult park in which to hit. He led the AL in runs scored (113) and piled up 5.7 WAR for the Mariners, putting up an .865 OPS and 148 OPS+, the best season of his career. He will also be 32 in 2027. Both are right-handed hitters, something this Phillies lineup desperately needs.
What about Trea Turner?
The most likely landing spot for the veteran shortstop is a shift to second base, which would push Bryson Stott back to shortstop or third base. However, Turner has played center field in the Majors before (10 years ago).
If he turned into a good defensive center fielder, his .675 OPS would be a bit easier to swallow, although it would still fall short of what one would come to expect from a corner outfielder.
That being said, Turner is going to have to play somewhere in 2027, and it’s not going to be shortstop. If the Phillies decide to put him in the outfield, it’s likely you’ll see Marsh traded, Crawford/Hill sharing center, and one of Arozarena/Suzuki in the other corner. If they do put Turner in center, Crawford probably has to be moved. He’s not productive enough to be the strong side of a corner outfield platoon.
Are there any possible solutions in the minors?
Not for 2027. After Aidan Miller, Francisco Renteria, the team’s top international free agent signing this year, is the team’s top position prospect. He’s already a top 100 prospect at just 17 years old, but he’s still at least a couple years away from playing in the Majors. Like, 2029 or 2030. Dante Nori burst onto the scene during last year’s World Baseball Classic for Team Italy, but it turned out to be nothing more than an amusement. Nori dealt with injuries for most of the year, and didn’t play all that well when he was on the field.
Caden Bogenpohl is a 21-year-old outfielder drafted out of Missouri State and put up a .742 OPS in 20 games for Clearwater this year. Griffin Burkholder is a 20-year-old prospect who played for Clearwater and Jersey Shore last year and had a .674 OPS in 87 games. Again, both players, if they ever progress, are a couple years away.
So, no. There are no answers coming from the current prospect pool for 2027, and probably not ‘28 either.
Lots for Dombrowski to work on ahead of the work stoppage on December 1!
