With Lebron James deciding on the Philadelphia 76ers as the final destination of his legendary career, the other suitors for his talents move on to their offseason backup plans. Of those teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers appear to be in a tough spot. After being demolished and swept in the eastern conference finals, they missed out on their hopeful Hollywood ending of Lebron returning home to Ohio and his original team.
Could the Portland Trail Blazers take turn some other franchise’s lemons into their
own lemonade?
Cavalier Spending
The Cavs have strong talent but are very expensive. This spring’s playoffs may have just shown they’ve peaked with their current group. In the middle of this is talented power forward, Evan Mobley. The 6’11” forward is among the NBA’s defensive elite, but his offensive production (while really good!) seems to have plateaued over the previous three seasons. His averages of 18.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.4 stocks (combined steals and blocks) per game are excellent for someone so locked in with the committed energy that outstanding defense requires. He’s a tremendous all-around player close to entering his prime, but questions have been arising if his contributions are enough to justify his compensation.
The former Defensive Player of the Year recently turned 25 and just finished the first year of a 5-year, $269 million maximum rookie scale contract. The final year in 2029-30 will earn him $61.2M million, about 32% of the salary cap. His contract also comes with a 15% trade kicker, which is calculated by (and added to) the remaining contract amount for a team that may trade for him. This is one of those contracts the NBA wants for elite homegrown talent – heavily incentivized for the player to stay a long time in one market.
However, as we’ve seen with the Boston Celtics trade of Jaylen Brown this summer, having two max-level players with looming extensions is making front offices sweat about long-term roster building. Franchises are very challenged to keep a sustainably successful roster around two $50M+ anchor contracts. There’s the fear of punishing salary cap taxes when crossing the luxury tax aprons, and/or having to trade dump players they’d prefer to keep in order to stay under the apron thresholds.
Cleveland locked themselves into this conundrum this summer when they extended franchise superstar guard Donovan Mitchell to the tune of four years and $273 million. This extension doesn’t kick in until 2027-28, when he’ll be 31 years old. The Cavaliers have Mitchell and Mobley locked in for the next five years for about the cost of the Moda Center renovation.
The question becomes: is the law office of Mitchell and Mobley a good enough max contract duo to win a title with a great supporting cast? They appear to be a complementary pair of stars who bring important contrasting elements to a winning team. Much like Mitchell’s Utah Jazz teams, he and Mobley are good enough to make this a perennial playoff team, but the roster around them doesn’t look like it’s enough to catapult the team any further. They have been trying to clear that castle wall for a few seasons, but guys keep splatting along the outside of it. Perhaps being tied for the 4th shortest team in the league has something to do with it?
Cleveland… Rocks?
Looking at the Cavs financial situation, they currently sit $14.3 million below the salary cap tax and $33 million below the 2nd apron, plus have one roster spot left to fill. Incumbent free agent James Harden is waiting (and expecting) a deal worth more than $42 million in totality, after opting out of his final year where he was due $42.3M. The original plan appeared to be keeping their cap flexibility to sign Lebron first, and then re-sign Harden to a two or three-year deal in the $55-65M range.
At a minimum, this would have put them in redline territory of the dreaded second apron tax. Even without Lebron, Harden’s expected deal will still land them pretty close. It should be noted that Cleveland was the only NBA team to finish the 2025-26 season over the second apron. Their tax bill was a whopping $68.7 million, leading to a total roster cost of over $280 million! Hey, at least they advanced to the east finals… only to not be very competitive in it.
The Cavs’ offseason doesn’t resemble a team trying to get better, but rather hang on. Aside from Mitchell’s extension, their only personnel addition was signing former Portland Trail Blazer, Mario Hezonja, who’s returning after six years of playing professionally in Europe. Blazers fans remember that excitement from the summer of 2019, and fresh off a conference finals sweep themselves. Cleveland also lost starting forward, Dean Wade, in free agency. Next up, they should be close to re-signing soon-to-be 37-year-old James Harden for at least two seasons, perhaps three.
Along with having a financial headache that limits their flexibility for dealmaking, their stock of draft picks feels Olsheylian. They didn’t have a first round pick in June’s draft, and don’t have any first or second round picks in 2027 and 2029. Their 2028 first will be the worst of theirs, Atlanta’s, and Utah’s. The only tradable second rounder is 2032. They drafted Maleek Thomas in the second round in June, and he went on to lead the Las Vegas Summer League in scoring. So there’s that…
They hit with their draft picks in 2019 and 2021 in Mobley and point guard Darius Garland, and then went all in by trading for Mitchell and signing center Jarrett Allen to round out their core. After dealing the oft-injured Garland for Harden (who was looking to be extended), they appear to have hit a talent and financial ceiling.
Fans in Portland are wringing their hands over their guard situation, but look at the projected guard room in Cleveland next season: Donovan Mitchell ($50M), James Harden ($20M+), Dennis Shroeder ($14.8M), Max Strus ($16.6M), Sam Merrill ($9.1M), Jaylon Tyson ($3.8M), and three more end of the bench players ($6M). That’s an approximate $119-129 million of the $165 million salary cap spent across nine players standing 6’5” or smaller. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have very little help in the big man department.
What Does This All Mean?
The Cavaliers have a high floor whose ceiling is beginning to shrink like the hallway in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory on the way to the glorious Chocolate Room. The Golden Ticket for the Cavs though, may have just come in the form of a 4-game shellacking by the New York Knicks in the ECF. It might not get better than that for them when you look at the east. Philadelphia has passed them. The Indiana Pacers are expected to bounce back and be among the conference leaders. Charlotte has had a really good offseason after a great second half close to last season. Toronto with Kawhi (potentially?) will be dangerous. Who knows what to expect from the hydra monster that is the Miami Heat?
Cleveland will be fighting to stay among that group, let alone get past it for the foreseeable future. They are wedded to Mitchell because of his age and contract. He’ll be making a staggering $75.5 million at age 35. If they have to sign Harden for three seasons, it’s bound to get weird at some point because when have things ever not gotten weird with him after being in one place for several seasons?
Then there’s Mobley. Our sweet Evan. Can he elevate his offensive game? His three-point shooting regressed from 37% to 30% on the same volume last year. He’s an excellent finisher at the rim, but his midrange game isn’t a strength like the power forwards of yore. He’s a solid playmaker, rebounder, and shot blocker, while his numbers in those categories have stayed mostly flat for a few years. If he has another level to unlock that can make him a 25 and 10 guy to go with elite defense, now we’re talking about a potential brighter future in Cleveland.
He’s very consistent though with his 18 and 9 and outstanding defense. Consistency to deliver is a major skill to have when you’re trying to win. I’m just not confident Cleveland is going to have the resources to make it work with Mobley making $50-60M along with Mitchell, Harden, and Allen gobbling up the rest of the cap. I expect this time next year, things won’t be as rosy as realities set in with an unbalanced roster. It needs a better long-term third option than Harden. It needs a lot more help in the frontcourt. If one of Mobley or Allen goes down for extended time, the Cavs are cooked.
Blazers Lurking?
The Blazers are coming off a front row seat to the series premiere of the Wemby Show. Every team is going to need to load up in unique ways to find their “Wemby-Slower-Downer,” as there’s no “stopper” for him until an Optimus Prime arrives to meet his Megatron. With Jrue Holiday’s chair pulling aside, Evan Mobley might rank in the Top 3 players most prepared and equipped to bother Wembanyama.
If he and the Spurs are the new perennial gold standard, then targeting Mobley might be a good idea if you’re still well-balanced after the trade. With Deni Avdija due a new contract in a couple seasons that might rival Mobley’s, Portland would then be making the same “Two Max Star” pact as Cleveland is currently, only you’re replacing Mitchell with the much larger two-way presence of Deni. Would Portland then encounter the same roster building issues as the Cavs are now facing?
First, there’s that 15% trade kicker. On the other end of that financial equation is Tom Dundon. He has said he’s all about spending on players, so a trade of this magnitude would be a testament to that. Mobley and Avdija could be making 60-70% of the cap, while Ja Morant will be hitting free agency. If he ends up in Portland’s long-term plans to form a Big 3, you’re looking at a capped out team that is going to have to nail almost the rest of the roster on a shoestring budget.
What Would It Take to Land Mobley?
The Cavs were rumored to like Jrue Holiday this past trade deadline. He likely would have been a more impactful fit next to Mitchell. It’s tough to tell what Holiday’s value will be next summer, but he will be on an expiring contract. Since Mitchell could be locked in for the long haul, retooling around him by trading Mobley (and perhaps Allen), for a slew of younger players and draft picks would be prudent if it appears they’ve peaked.
There’s no reason to stay as expensive as they are if they keep getting rebuffed in the playoffs with the current roster. I’d guess at the least, the Blazers would be sending Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, and Donovan Clingan to match financially, and several first round picks. This gives the Cavs increased positional versatility and depth, and they can financially begin to rebalance their roster, and restock much needed draft capital.
If Portland was to transition to an Avdija, Lillard, Holiday, Morant, Mobley, Sharpe core a year from now, they would have the full MLE to use, then would turn to a parade of veteran minimum contracts to round out the team. The summer of 2028 would be a pivotal point in what direction that roster ultimately goes. Mobley and Sharpe would be the only core players under contract. Portland could attempt to take a big swing in free agency before circling back to max out Deni and make decisions on the other guards.
Ultimately, while I like the idea of Mobley as a Blazer, I think they have the Michelob Ultra version of him in Camara. Both as a player and the associated cost. Mobley for sure raises Portland’s salary cap, I’m just not sure he raises the win ceiling without a Donovan Clingan next to him in the trenches. Clingan would be a likely casualty either as part of the trade going out, or he’d become a Walker Kessler level of unaffordable with the rest of the roster still needing to be filled out. 2028 is going to be a very expensive summer for the Blazers. They may want to stay patient and try to draft their own cost-controlled Evan Mobley with the upcoming Milwaukee Bucks assets they control. Currently, I fall on that side of the ledger.
What’s your take, Blazer’s Edge community? Should Portland aggressively pursue Mobley as the next franchise cornerstone next to Deni? Is he worth what it would cost? What assets would you be willing to give? Which of Portland’s guards would you want to be their third amigo?
