The stage is set for the 2026 Stanley Cup now that only Vegas and Carolina remain.
The Hurricanes bulled into the final by dropping Montreal in five games in the Eastern Conference Final. Carolina spotted the Canadiens the first game following a 12-day layoff in between series. Once the Canes got back in with the program, it was just a matter of time until they folded up the Habs based on the domination. Goalie Jakub Dobes put up a heck of a fight to keep some of the games close, by the end there
was nothing more he could do to stop the mismatch from ending in a one-sided result.
On the other side of the bracket out west, the process wasn’t as one-sided but the results were perhaps even more shocking for the Golden Knights to sweep away the regular season champ Colorado Avalanche. Vegas won one-goal contests in Games 1-3 (until late empty net goals sealed the deal) and then jumped up 2-0 in Game 4 and held onto win 2-1. Game 3 was probably their finest moment, erasing a 3-0 deficit and coming back to score five unanswered goals to shock Colorado all the way out of it. (In a way, the Avs conference final appearance mirrored the Penguins in ‘13 against the Bruins. A couple close games didn’t go their way, then before they knew what happened the hole got so deep there was no way out).
Three different models see this ultimately this matchup with the exact same result on a 56-44 split in favor of the Hurricanes. It’s hard to argue against the 12-1 path they’ve cut through the Eastern Conference. The gambling market is in close step with that analysis, the Knights at +130 to win is an implied probability of 43.5% (Carolina’s line of -155 is at 60%. That math doesn’t add up to 100%, because no matter what happens the house always wins).
That sounds like a good baseline to think about when trying to predict or analyze this one. Both teams obviously have reason to be confident heading into the final round of the playoffs, either is capable of winning four more games if the next few days/weeks go the right way. The Hurricanes are probably a marginally stronger side on paper, with home ice advantage to boot. Games, of course, won’t be decided on paper so they’ll play them to see what happens.
One area to watch – and potentially challenge previous results – will be what happens with the power play for Vegas. The Golden Knights have a 23.6% power play (2nd best in the playoffs for teams that won a round). That’s going to have to be a difference-maker and will have quite the challenge. Carolina has the penalty kill working to the tune of four goals allowed this playoff on 53 chances (92.5%) and beyond that are yielding 4v5 expected goal rates per 60 in the 3.7-4.2 range in their first three series. By contrast, the Vegas power play has 8.71 actual goals/60 on the power play this playoff to show the stark difference of this strength-on-strength area.
That will put an onus on Mitch Marner (seven power play points this playoff) and Jack Eichel (6 PPP) to create something that can hit the back of the net to throw the games off schedule for what Carolina has been doing this spring. The stars have to shine bright at this time of year, and with how stingy the Hurricanes have been that will be a huge telling point for just how much of a chance the slight underdogs have to make noise.
Both teams have been excellent late when they have a lead, Carolina is 7-0 in the playoffs when leading going into the second intermission, Vegas is 8-0. The Hurricanes have scored first in a shocking 11 out of their 13 games, and are 10-1 when they do take that first lead. The first goal has been important for Vegas, they’re 7-1 in playoff games when they strike first, but still an impressive 5-3 when they trail 1-0.
That too could be a crucial piece of information; the Hurricanes aren’t used to giving up goals while shorthanded and they’re not used to falling behind. Vegas has more experience in terms of dealing with adversity to get to this point, starting with the fact they only won 39 regular season games, had a late coaching change and have had to be in a clawing/survival type of mode for quite a while.
The question becomes is Carolina able to perform so well that they don’t even have to figure out how to deal with falling behind in a game or series? Or can Vegas take advantage of planting some seeds of doubts and putting the Canes in an unaccustomed tough spot?
We’ll shake up the ball a little and say that the Hurricanes won’t cruise to the championship, though there’s a decent possibility that they will. All of their lines are clicking, including the impressive second line of Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake that’s helped push Nik Ehlers into the ‘Phil Kessel type of ’third’ liner’ territory. Carolina is built to suppress their opponents, the missing piece for them has seemingly been found to get enough production to make it count. That means we’ll say that Jordan Staal gets a successful trip back to the SCF, his first since being with the Penguins in 2009.
Prediction: Carolina in 6
