This weekend, the Iowa Hawkeyes have their first road game of the 2026 season against the Michigan Wolverines.
On paper, these two teams are similar. Both are defense-first teams. Iowa is the No. 1 ranked scoring defense and points-per-game defense. Michigan is No. 21 scoring and No. 10 ppg. Both have questions on offense though for different reasons: Iowa for its history of offensive ineptitude and Michigan for talent that hasn’t lived up to its potential.
Both have faced similar schedules with one
challenging opponent—by the end of the season, I predict ISU and Oklahoma will look similar on paper—and two patsies.
And both are 3-0–though the Wolverines needed an extra play to do it—and have their whole seasons ahead of them.
It’s early in the season, but make no mistake; in many ways, both teams’ playoff hopes are riding on this game.
3 Questions
Can Hank Brown and the Iowa Passing Game Overcome the Intangibles?
Iowa quarterback Hank Brown has started the year on a tear. Through three games he has completed 72.6% of his passes. The last time an Iowa quarterback did that through the first three games of the season? Never. The thing is, between both Iowa and his time at Auburn, he has taken meaningful snaps in exactly zero away games. And he’s never started an away game.
Iowa’s phenom wide receiver Tony Diaz has a similar story. He transferred to Iowa from University of Texas – Rio Grande Valley. He has taken snaps and started in meaningful away games, but those away games were at, among other places, Stephen F Austin and Lamar. A far cry from the Big House.
Along with that Diaz, and most of the Iowa pass catchers, have never played meaningful snaps in a Big Ten game against competition with the history of Michigan. And the last time Brown played meaningful snaps against Big Ten competition…well, we’d rather not think about that.
And then there are Iowa’s playoff hopes. Yeah, I know the season is young and one-game-at-a-time, but the way the Big Ten has fared so far this season, any team hoping to make the playoffs would need 10 wins, maybe 11. Next week, Iowa plays Ohio State, and the Hawkeyes are decidedly not favored to win that game. Lose against Michigan, and couple that with a probable loss to OSU, and the road to the playoffs becomes very narrow, maybe even impossible.
Does Tim Lester Fully Open the Playbook?
It’s standard tradition in football: open the playbook up slowly as the year progresses; don’t allow your opponent to see too much, so that when you get to
This season, Iowa has had as successful an offense as it’s had in a long time. But I don’t think offensive coordinator Tim Lester has really opened things up yet. Even in a close game against Iowa State, the Hawkeye OC played it pretty close to the vest. That’s not going to be enough against Michigan.
It seems evident that Hank Brown’s comfort zone is in the short and intermediate passing game, and Lester has largely been happy keeping him in that comfort zone. And that’s fine; you can live there.
But Michigan is going to look to shut down Iowa’s run game first, as will every opponent until the Hawkeyes prove they can win with passing. In order to neutralize what is likely the second-best defense the Hawkeyes will face all season, Brown will have to throw long to keep the safeties honest. And to make that happen, Lester will have to call those plays.
Can the Iowa Defensive Ends Keep Contain While Generating Pressure?
Michigan’s top rusher is its quarterback Bryce Underwood. The Wolverine’s longest rush of the season, by Underwood, is 38 yards. Underwood is easily the Wolverine’s most dangerous player.
In fact, nobody else on the Wolverines has really established himself as a serious threat. Running back Jordan Marshall was pretty good last year, but he’s been dinged up. And wide receiver JJ Buchanan looks good on paper, but if you look closer you notice most of his receptions and yards, and both of his touchdowns, came against Western Michigan and UTEP. Against Oklahoma…eh.
So, if you keep Underwood in the pocket and pressure him this one seems pretty straightforward.
Thankfully, Iowa had a dress rehearsal against Iowa State. The Cyclones’ quarterback, Jaylen Raynor, is kind of a Bryce Underwood light. And against the Hawkeyes, he had eight rushes for only 18 yards. However, he didn’t get sacked, he had time in the pocket, and he didn’t throw an interception.
I’m confident that the Iowa front four can contain Underwood, but if they don’t pressure him as well, he is capable of torching the Hawkeyes with his arm.
2 Things to Watch
The Margins
One of the biggest surprises this year has been the Hawkeyes’ special teams. Iowa replaced its kicker, punter, punt returner and kick returner, not to mention its special teams coordinator. The departed kicker and punt/kick returner are both playing on Sundays, so there were big shoes to fill.
Yet, the new kicker—Caden Buhr—has shown up in high-pressure situations and made some long kicks. Meanwhile, the new punter—Boston Everitt—has been, dare I say, an improvement over last year’s punter who transferred to Michigan State.
The punt return duties, which have been split between wide receivers Evan James and Reece Vander Zee, have been solid and occasionally spectacular.
Then there are turnovers. Hank Brown has yet to throw a pick, and the Hawkeyes have yet to lose a fumble. The only turnover has come via Jeremy Hecklinski on a fourth down play where he had to get rid of the ball. On the other side of the ball, the Hawkeyes have recovered one fumble and picked one off for a net +1 turnover differential.
Michigan is second-worst in the conference with a net -3 turnover differential.
Lastly, Iowa is tied for 10th in the Big Ten in penalties per game, and that number is bloated because Iowa had an uncharacteristically sloppy game against UNI. Michigan is tied for third.
All in all, every one of the above points to a sizable advantage for Iowa in the margins.
Strength on Strength: Iowa’s Offensive Line vs Michigan’s Defensive Line
Before the season began, Phil Steele ranked the Iowa offensive line 15th in the country. He also ranked the Michigan defensive line seventh in the country.
The Hawkeyes are anchored by left tackle Trevor Lauck and right guard Kade Pieper. NFL Draft Buzz ranks Lauck as the fifth best offensive linemen potentially available for the 2027 draft. Pieper is seventh best.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan defensive end, John Henry Daley, is ranked as the seventh-best defensive lineman/edge. Daley, a Utah transfer, has not disappointed. So far this season, he has 2.5 sacks, 1.5 of them against Oklahoma. Last year, he had 11.5 sacks. The other end, Dom Nichols, maybe more talented if less accomplished than Daley, has two sacks. Overall, Michigan has ten sacks which is tied for third in the Big Ten.
Hank Brown has yet to be sacked in 2026. He has barely been pressured, even against Iowa State, and ISU has a good line. That is a testament to Iowa’s offensive line. But as previously mentioned, against Michigan, Iowa will have to dial up some long passes. And long passes require time in the pocket, and time in the pocket will require protection.
1 Wild Prediction
Michigan is currently ranked 91st in the country in yards-rushing-per-game. As previously mentioned, their most dangerous runner is their quarterback. And remember, that has been against Western Michigan, Oklahoma and Texas-El Paso.
Iowa’s defense is currently ranked 12th in rushing-yards-allowed-per-game. Again, Iowa hasn’t faced a murderer’s row of rushing teams, but it’s a similar schedule to Michigan’s.
I like Iowa to hold UM under 125 total rushing yards which, for the Iowa defense, is a winning number.
Go Hawks!
