Much like the Doomsday clock Disney/Marvel has put in place to count down to the new IP they want to put on screen, the clock is counting down to the trade deadline for MLB. Once the All-Star festivities completed and the season started back up, teams turned their attention back to making deals to put their teams into position for the stretch run and, hopefully, beyond. What the Phillies actually need to acquire and how it should be prioritized is a matter of opinion. The focus has been on bats that
can get on base and/or relievers to add to the bullpen, but this weekend also showed us how much they might need someone to create a sense of calm in the fifth starter’s position if they even want to get into the postseason at all.
In order to facilitate those trades, the Phillies will have to surrender something in return, no easy task. Baseball America recently ranked the farm system the team has as the 29th best in the game, something that might make it difficult to make a deal to give them the impact bat/relief arm many would prefer they get. Yet trades will happen and the Phillies will be involved in some capacity, so let’s take a stab at ranking some of their prospects in terms of their trade value and what they might be able to command on the open market. This isn’t necessarily a ranking of what their farm system is as it stands. Rather, it’s look at prospects and how they might rank if we’re talking about those most likely to be dealt.
Note: any scouting reports used here will come from Matt Winkelman’s outstanding work covering the system unless otherwise noted. All stats through Wednesday’s games.
7. Alirio Ferrebus, C, Clearwater
Ferrebus has been one of the few breakouts the Phillies’ system has had this year. Fangraphs had him ranked 20th on the Phillies list coming into the season and all he has done is hit. A .328/.379/.511 line on the year with 11 home runs and 56 RBI is going to get the attention of people, as will the striking out less than 14% of the time he is at the plate. Yet it’s also the way he’s hitting that is going to be enticing. He’s maxed out with a 111.7 mph exit velocity, so the power is there and showing up in game.
He’s making good swing decisions, basically doing all the things the team wants him to do. His staying as a catcher is still something of a question mark, but the way he is swinging the bat, he simply needs to get to something a tic below average to have a lot of value. This might be a little low of a ranking, but with catchers, development isn’t really linear. Some might be hesitant to give up a lot for him if he can’t stay as a catcher, which adds to the wild card-ness of his profile.
What would be able to bring the Phillies: Ferrebus likely wouldn’t be enough to be the lead of any significant deal, but he’s a solid second piece in a trade.
6. Bryan Rincon, SS, Jersey Shore
Another breakout for the Phillies, Rincon is healthy and producing. He had 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases, showing more power than he has in the past and regaining the speed that made him an intriguing up the middle prospect. The question is – is there more development left for him, or is this pretty much what he is? If that’s the case, the consideration must be made that his trade value is somewhat small, which brings us to…
What would be able to bring the Phillies: For now, he seems to be very much in the boat of “third piece in a deal” if they were looking to acquire someone fairly significant, as reports seem to be. However, Rincon also has that whiff about him of a player that would be a fine return for a team looking at a one-for-one deal for a bullpen addition. His value might vacillate quite a bit.
5. Marty Gair, RHP, Clearwater
Does 102 do it for you?
Teams love bringing back wild card arms in trades and Gair is one that would qualify. He has had a solid season down in Clearwater, clearly demonstrating the ability to throw the baseball past hitters at that level. Does it play as he moves up the minor league ladder? Well, looking at at least one game to see his metrics on the fastball, there is something here that teams would be interested in working with. Seeing as how he has an induced vertical break on the fastball of 19 inches with some cut to it, that’s a major league fastball. Maybe it needs some refinement, which he clearly does with that and his secondary stuff, but this is a definite player teams would have interest in.
What would be able to bring the Phillies: Let’s also be realistic here. Gair is a reliever. Teams aren’t going to make a pitcher like that a priority in a deal unless it is similar to Rincon, a one-for-one move for a bullpen arm. Yet this is something that is tantalizing, a piece that could bring some teams something maybe they don’t have in their current system, an arm that can rush it up to the plate with pitch characteristics that play in higher levels
4. Brad Pacheco, RHP, Clearwater
The Phillies seem to be able to develop right handed pitching rather well in their minor league system and it’s beginning to look like Pacheco is going to be another. He had thrown strikes this year and done so with a fastball that reaches into the high nineties, all complemented by a changeup that grades out as plus.
These are the stepping stones teams that can develop pitchers well seek out when looking at prospects to acquire in a deal. Pachecho may have developed into that.
What would be able to bring the Phillies: As all the scouting reports you read about him talk about, being six feet tall has his profile at risk of being a reliever. He’s been developed by the Phillies as a starter and he has shown success, so teams would likely continue that path with him. Does he lead a trade package? Probably not, but he’s a darn good second piece.
3. Aroon Escobar, 2B, Reading
Players in the minors go through down parts of their development as we all know that that development is rarely linear. Escobar is one that is in the down part. He has not had a good season this year as he’s hitting for significantly less power than he did just a year ago. There are some bright spots to see as he’s walking a bit more and striking out a bit less, but even then, there is bit of a line of demarcation with his season. As Winkelman quotes:
Escobar has struggled at Reading, with an overly aggressive approach leading to poor contact quality. He has swung the other way towards passivity in June, and he needs to find a balance between the two approaches.
To me, that screams a player that needs a new voice in his development and perhaps an outside organization will see what he did last year and think they have the solutions to get him back on track.
What would be able to bring the Phillies: It’s probably a lock that Escobar is someone who is dealt at the deadline. What he commands in a deal will probably be the biggest delta of them all. If a team thinks they can fix his issues, he might be someone that is targeted in a deal. They’ll probably try to buy low on him based on his season though.
2. Juan Villavicencio, SS, Jersey Shore
This is where we get into the part of the list where, in my opinion, things are going to start to get interesting. Villavicencio has had a great season so far in Jersey Shore, hitting for some unexpected power and showing that he can stay up the middle long term. If this is the first time you’re hearing about him as a prospect, you’re not alone.
Matt Winkelman, as noted above, is the foremost authority on the team’s prospect system. Here is what he wrote about Villavicencio last year:
Villavicencio received an intriguing amount of time at the top of the FCL lineup after Aroon Escobar’s injury, indicating the Phillies like him. He has some positional flexibility, but he also has struck out a decent rate at each stop and doesn’t really have starting punch in his bat.
And here is what he wrote about him most recently:
Villavicencio has piqued the interest of some evaluators over the years thanks to intriguing raw power and the ability to stay up the middle defensively. However, he barely played and stayed healthy the last two seasons, with much of his time spent on the complex team. This year, he has been healthy, and very productive. He has average raw power, good zone contact rates, and a solid approach.
This kind of jump in what his profile looks like is what gets other teams to notice, something that is starting to happen more often.
What would be able to bring the Phillies: Ever see those trades where a guy looks like a throw-in at the end of a deal and turns out to be something more? That looks like where Villavicencio is headed. If he is someone that looks like he will continue on his current path and teams think he will do so, teams are going to target him in a deal, maybe for something significant.
1. Ramon Marquez, RHP, Jersey Shore
Marquez has had a breakout season for the Phillies to this point and is probably the best prospect the team would move this trade season. His changeup has led to his getting some solid swing and miss, a pitch that has jumped a grade in this season.
What’s interesting is that with Marquez, there are some scouts that spoke with Matt Gelb in an article about the farm system that said he has gotten to, or maybe passed, the level that Gage Wood is at, perhaps the top prospect in the team’s current farm system. If that is true, there might be some belief that the team should hold on to him, but if his profile is this high and they can find a match in a trade, out the door he goes.
What would be able to bring the Phillies: If Wood is completely off the table, Marquez is probably the lead player in any deal of significance the Phillies make.
Honorable mention: Gage Wood, RHP, Reading
Why isn’t Wood amongst the names we have included here? It’s highly unlikely that the team will actually deal him, but we simply cannot rule it out completely.
Let’s consider the Phillies’ many needs, all of which we have covered here. A lot of the names we have seen churning on the rumor mill are names that aren’t exactly that perfect combination of difference maker and having notable team control still in their future. Were that player to exist and the Phillies make a play on him, putting Wood on that table would and should be something they considered.
Notable absences: Aidan Miller, Francisco Renteria
It’s pretty obvious why Miller isn’t included here. Trading him now would be trading him at the lowest his trade value would be. He projects to be an impact player so long as he is healthy enough to scratch that ceiling. However, that health is the X-factor at play. Most teams will likely not want anything to do with him, those that might have interest not wanting to risk giving something of value for him. For now, it only makes sense that the Phillies hang on to him and continue rehabbing his injury.
With Renteria, the upside he has been showing in game situations, one might make the argument that he is the team’s top prospect right now regardless of age or level of competition he’s faced. The team is likely loathe to trade him, preferring that their investment in him pay dividends in their own organization as opposed to another.
