The season is nearly underway for the Indianapolis Colts, who are trying to navigate a challenging coaching, management, and quarterback situation heading into the 2025 NFL season. Head coach Shane Steichen has produced middling results thus far (the team is literally 17-17 in his two-year tenure), and general manager Chris Ballard is on the hot seat. It’s safe to say this season is a critical one for the Colts.
With the Anthony Richardson/Daniel Jones battle at quarterback taking up a lot of room,
Indianapolis has begun extending some of their cornerstone pieces. Offensive tackle Bernhard Raimann just secured a massive 4-year, $100M extension, and the team could be looking at other potential extension candidates in the coming days.
An obvious target would be Kwity Paye, who has gradually ascended into the ranks of the very good NFL edge rushers. Paye has been a consistent disruptor against the run and pass with at least 8.0 TFL and 8.0 sacks in each of the past two seasons. Although Paye’s pressure numbers have been merely good, he’s been excellent at converting pressure into sacks year after year.
With Paye currently playing on the $13.4M fifth-year option and set to hit free agency in 2026, let’s take a closer look at a potential Kwity Paye extension.
What would an extension for Kwity Paye look like?
Kwity Paye entered the NFL with significant fanfare as the 21st overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. While he hasn’t emerged as a true household name, he’s been an integral part of a Colts defense that has struggled mightily in recent years. Paye led Indianapolis in sacks in 2024 and has taken on an increased role as DeForest Buckner enters his age-31 season. To put it simply, he’s an indispensable part of the defense.
That makes it a little challenging to peg his exact value. Edge rusher contracts have absolutely exploded this offseason, with both Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt above $40M APY (Average Per Year) and three others in the $30M APY range. All that being said, Paye is likely to slot in well below those players, assuming the Colts are proactive with getting this extension done now.
I think the best comps for Paye’s contract would be George Karlaftis ($22M APY, 36.4% guaranteed), Rashan Gary ($24M APY, 36.1% APY), and Montez Sweat ($24.5M APY, 42.8%).
Using those contracts as a starting point, here’s my projection for a potential Kwity Paye extension:
Kwity Paye projected extension: 4 years, $96M ($24M APY), $38.4M (40%) guaranteed, $18M signing bonus
This contract would immediately make Kwity Paye tied for ninth in terms of the highest-paid edge rushers in the NFL. His $24M APY would beat Karlaftis (who accepted a very team-friendly deal, in my opinion), tie Rashan Gary, and come in just below Montez Sweat (who has been more productive in his career thus far). Paye’s guarantees would also beat out Karlaftis and Gary while coming in just a hair below Sweat.
This is a big payday for a player in Paye who has yet to ascend to top status in the NFL. However, the Colts could structure the deal in such a way as to pay more guarantees early and give them flexibility later on thanks to the team’s current cap space of over $19M. Front-loading the deal now and signing Paye before a potential breakout season that could vault his value into the $30M+ APY range in 2026 would be a wise move for a Colts team that could be looking at a reset in the future.
Indianapolis has the money now, and can lock up a potential young star in Kwity Paye for the foreseeable future. Sure, there’s risk: if Paye has a disappointing 2025 season or injury, then the deal likely looks bad. That’s the gamble the Colts would be taking here. But I’d argue the upside of securing a pass rusher going into his prime and coming off the two best seasons of his career is well worth it.
What are your thoughts on this potential extension for Kwity Paye? Do you think it’s worthwhile to extend Paye now before a potential breakout season, or would you rather wait and see for another year?
