The San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had eerily similar seasons.
Both enter the Week 6 matchup at 4-1 with a chance to claim the best record in the NFC with a victory. Both have been in close games that could have gone either way in their first five games. Both enter Sunday with plenty of injury questions that could have an impact on Sunday.
But just how similar are the two teams? Here are the numbers to know for the 49ers’ trip down to Florida:
3.8
The Buccaneers’ offense has turned
the ball over on 3.8 percent of drives, the second-lowest rate in the league.
Tampa Bay’s only loss this season just so happens to be their only game with a turnover. Bucky Irving’s third-quarter fumble in Week 4 against the Eagles was the Buccaneers’ first turnover of the season, allowing the Eagles’ offense to extend its lead to 18 points. Tampa would surge back, but Baker Mayfield would throw his first interception of the season with the Buccaneers in the red zone, trailing by eight in the fourth quarter, effectively ending the comeback chance.
Outside of those two miscues, the Buccaneers’ offense has been flawless in terms of holding on to the ball.
That might spell bad news for the 49ers’ defense, which has struggled to force opposing teams to turn the ball over. San Francisco’s defense has only forced five turnovers in its five games, with all five coming by way of the fumble.
While San Francisco has struggled to force turnovers consistently, there can be no complaints about their timing. Three of the 49ers’ five fumble recoveries have come late in the fourth quarter in a one-possession game. Week 1 closed with Nick Bosa’s strip sack of Sam Darnold, with the next week ending the same when Bryce Huff met Spencer Rattler to seal the Week 2 win. Alfred Collins became the latest 49er to force a heroic fumble, stripping Kyren Williams at the goal line last week in the win over the Rams.
An interception would be nice since the 49ers haven’t forced one in 12 games, but against this Buccaneers team, any type of turnover could be a massive momentum swing.
7.7
Tampa Bay’s defense forces a turnover on 7.7 percent of drives, the ninth-lowest rate in the league.
On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers’ defense has been worse than the 49ers’ defense at forcing turnovers. While the 49ers’ defense has only forced five turnovers through its five games, Tampa Bay has only forced four through its five games.
While San Francisco’s defense wasted no time, forcing two fumbles in Week 1, Tampa Bay wouldn’t force its first turnover until Week 3 against the New York Jets. It would take until the second quarter, but Antoine Winfield would get to Tyrod Taylor to strip-sack the quarterback with the ball bouncing into the hands of Vita Vea. Later that same quarter, Jamel Dean would jump a Taylor pass attempt and return the interception for a touchdown, extending Tampa Bay’s lead to double-digits before the half.
Tampa Bay would go without a turnover against the Eagles, but forced two more in the Week 5 win over the Seahawks. Seattle would try to get tricky by running a speed option with backup quarterback Jalen Milroe, but the pitch would go awry when the quarterback put the ball on the ground for Tykee Smith to recover.
The Bucs’ second turnover of Week 5 is what won them the game. In a tie game late in the fourth quarter, Tampa Bay’s defense got some pressure on Sam Darnold, forcing the quarterback to force a pass to Cooper Kupp. Levonte David would be on the other side of the pass attempt, however, resulting in an interception that would set the Buccaneers’ offense up in field goal range, leading the way to the game-winning 39-yard kick from Chase McLaughlin.
While the 49ers offense has turned the ball over eight times – fourth-most in the league – the Mac Jones-led 49ers offense has only turned it over twice in three games. With Jones’ status up in the air for Sunday, the 49ers should not only hope Jones plays, but his trend of not turning the ball over continues against a Buccaneers’ defense that’s had some issues forcing mistakes.
5
Like the 49ers, the Buccaneers have played in five one-possession games this season. And like the 49ers, Tampa Bay is 4-1 in those games.
Last week, the 49ers came out on top in a tight one against a Rams team that played in four one-possession games entering Week 5. On Sunday, the 49ers will have another matchup against a team that’s used to playing in tight games once again.
Tampa opened the season with back-to-back wins: a three-point victory over the Falcons and a one-point win over the Texans. Both required a Mayfield two-minute drive, with the Bucs scoring a game-winning touchdown with less than a minute to go. Week 3, however, got a little fuzzy for Tampa Bay as they saw the still winless Jets dwindle at a 23-6 deficit. The Jets then took a 27-26 lead, requiring another game-winning drive from Mayfield, moving Tampa Bay to 3-0.
After a near collapse against the Jets, Tampa Bay almost forced a collapse by the Eagles, coming back from a 21-point deficit to cut the lead to eight in the fourth quarter, but Mayfield’s red zone interception ended the comeback hopes. While Philadelphia handed Tampa Bay their first loss, the Buccaneers bounced back in a big way, with a shootout three-point victory against the Seahawks.
Sunday will be a matchup of two teams that have made it a habit to play in close games. The margins will be tight between the 49ers and Buccaneers, and the Week 6 game could be decided by who wins the turnover battle.
