At last year’s Trade Deadline, the Twins faced a reckoning. After taking the AL Central title in 2023 and experiencing their first playoff success in over two decades, they stumbled down the stretch in ’24 to a disappointing 82-80 record. Now, the bottom had fallen out. A 13-1 drubbing on July 30th at the hands of the Red Sox dropped their record to 51-57, good for fourth place and 12 games back of the pace in the wide-open Central. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey pulled the trigger
on a deadline fire sale for the ages, trading 10 players off their big-league roster. Those moved included three-time All-Star Carlos Correa — in what amounted to a salary dump — and five relievers, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran.
Minnesota Twins
2025 record: 70-92 (4th, AL Central)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 79-83 (3rd, AL Central)
Despite spurious reports that he had been traded to the Red Sox, the Twins did hold onto ace Joe Ryan, as well as fellow starter Pablo López and longtime center fielder Byron Buxton, who has repeatedly affirmed that he will exercise his no-trade clause if the Twins attempt to move him. For his part, Buxton had something of a career year at 31, smashing 35 homers while playing in 120 games for the first time since 2017. Ryan, too, took the next step, striking out 194 in 171 innings while earning his first All-Star berth. Rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall and sophomore starter Simeon Woods Richardson looked the part as MLB regulars.
That’s pretty much where the bright spots ended. At least the Twins were consistent, finishing 23rd in both runs scored and runs allowed. Everyday players Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Brooks Lee were relied upon to shoulder their share of the load and floundered, combining to end the season below replacement level despite playing in a combined 385 games. On the other side of the ball, manager Rocco Baldelli’s cupboard was left threadbare by the deadline moves as he finished the season with a patchwork group of journeyman and underperforming prospects.
Baldelli was relieved of his duties after the season and Falvey departed “mutually” in a shock January shake-up that occurred about a month after Joe Pohlad took over from his brother Tom as the Twins’ controlling owner. The front office, now headed by Falvey’s former deputy Jeremy Zoll, has been largely inactive this offseason, signing veterans Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers to short-term, low-risk deals. López, one of the few proven contributors on the roster, is undergoing Tommy John surgery that will cost him the entire season. Ryan, the team’s unquestioned ace, was scratched from a scheduled spring start last Saturday with lower back tightness (though he reportedly got encouraging news from the MRI that followed). And Buxton, the team’s de facto captain, cannot reasonably be relied upon to stay on the field over the course of a full season.
And yet FanGraphs’ projection has them finishing ahead of not only the White Sox but the Guardians in the Central under new manager Derek Shelton (late of the Pirates). They anticipate Buxton taking 473 plate appearances — something, again, he did for the first time since 2017 last year. They’re also bullish on Wallner not only taking a step forward with the bat but no longer being a defensive liability in his age-28 season while expecting 23-year-old Kaelen Culpepper to be a key contributor as a rookie.
To be candid, I don’t see what the algorithm is seeing. Losing a half-season of Correa, Duran, and company with only marginal replacements and expecting to win nine more games seems like a pipe dream. Given how placid their front office has been this offseason, I don’t think even the Twins expect to fare that well. To be fair, FanGraphs was also counting on a healthy season from López in their calculations, though his 2.6 WAR can’t account for the large swing they project.
Given the busy offseason of the White Sox — headlined by the signing of Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami — and the Guardians’ ability to exceed projections each year, Minnesota has a very real chance to enter the race to the bottom of the division (no matter how irrationally optimistic Pohlad seems to be despite refusing to invest). Expect them to use this season to assess whether young talent like Lee, Culpepper, and Walker Jenkins can be part of the next competitive Twins team while once again lying in wait as one of the league’s few true sellers at the deadline.
More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.
