I’m no stranger to losing important things. “Severe” ADHD will do that to a person. I went through 14 student ID cards in college. I once lost my smartwatch for a year. I know exactly how much a replacement drivers license costs. In fact, just yesterday I found my wedding ring after several months, under our bedroom rug so far it was well under the bed (though I blame my bad cats for that).
Losing things is not fun nor a funny quirk. The financial and emotional toll of losing things constantly is real
and exhausting.
This Mariners team has recently looked as though they’ve lost most things that are important to them, at least as it concerns winning games. They’ve looked directionless, adrift, tired, soggy.
But, for at least for a moment, at least for one game, they look like they’re starting to find those missing pieces, and earned a bonafide win over the best team in baseball.
To be sure, the Dodgers did not make it easy, and the Mariners weren’t perfect. It’s hard to look good against this Dodgers lineup that rocks a team-wide 112 wRC+ and a .343 xwOBA, both top of the league. But Luis Castillo did not look sharp this start continuing a disastrous road trip for a starting rotation that has given up 25 runs in 25 innings. His slider looked a couple of minutes past al dente, a perfect pairing for the four-seam meatballs that he served up (when the fastball wasn’t well outside of the zone [and not in a cool, sexy way]).
Castillo exited after 5 innings, having allowed 11 hits, 2 walks, and lucky to have given up only 5 runs, as the Dodgers put relentless pressure on him and constant traffic on the basepaths.
The rotation, recent stumble aside, be the only piece of the puzzle that has been consistent. The encouraging parts of this game came from the rest of the team.
Missing Piece No. 1: Leaders Leading
In the top of the second, down a run after Shohei Ohtani’s 10th leadoff home run this season, Daulton Rushing called for a low fastball against Raleigh. Not a terrible pitch call, as Cal hasn’t hit that zone particularly well historically.
No matter.
Julio Rodríguez joined Cal a couple of innings later in a similar situation. Rushing called for a low slider that Wrobleski executed more or less perfectly. Julio was simply more perfect.
For the Mariners to be a serious baseball team, Julio and Cal must be the fundamental force, the gravity, that anchors the rest of the lineup. They are not the entire offense, of course. But their influence and presence, both direct and indirect, is what gives weight and shape to Randy, Canzone and Young’s at-bats. They get on base so that hitters after them have runners to drive in, and their looming presence means that hitters before them get better pitches to hit.
Their recent absence has been apparent, and part of the reason the lineup has felt so abysmal and shapeless. If they can begin to re-form the arc of the lineup, the uphill battle back to the top of the division doesn’t feel quite so steep.
Missing Piece No. 2: Fight, Heart, Desire From the Offense
There aren’t any stats I can think of that can quantify this piece, but if you’ve watched much or any Mariners baseball over the last couple of months, you know exactly what I mean.
It’s why the game felt a little bit over after the Ohtani leadoff home run. It’s also why it felt over after the Dodgers pulled ahead again in the 3rd. The Mariners have not showed any semblance of life when falling behind, and haven’t put themselves in a position to play from ahead. The hitters have lacked any recognizable approach at the plate, and the bullpen unable to work their way out of jams.
Tonight was different. The Mariners fell behind three times, and each time, someone stepped up.
After Julio’s home run tied the game up, Seattle didn’t lose momentum. Josh Naylor poked a single in very Naylor fashion, setting up Rob Refsnyder, returned from the IL, for his own moment of fight tonight. He worked a full count like the veteran he is before turning around on a fastball at the letters, banging it off the foul pole.
4-2 Mariners.
As mentioned earlier, this Dodgers lineup is a freight train, so this lead did not last. Los Angeles responded immediately, putting up two runs in the bottom of the fourth inning and another in the fifth to leave the game 5-4. They, annoyingly, refuse to go gentle.
Enter Dominic Canzone, one of the few truly bright spots of the offense this season. He put his foot down, hitting the tying and go-ahead home runs in the 6th and 8th innings. Please behold the absolutely diva-ness of his bat drop on the second:
Teams that win tough games against tough opponents need someone to step up. The stars can’t be the heroes every night. Sometimes, often, your hero has to be a role-player platoon players who is here to do a job and do it well. It has to be a player who is fighting to shrug off the part-time label and show that he’s capable of starting, every day, period.
If the Mariners are to go to the World Series, it is too easy to imagine it being Cal driving in Julio, a modern-day Double, that sends them there. Baseball is ripe for those big, inevitable moments. But it is also a sport full of unsung regulars becoming, for a moment, immortal. The Mariners will need consistency, fight, heart and desire from every part of the lineup if they want to make it deep into October.
Missing Piece No. 3: Resolve, Clutch
Handed a tied game, Gabe Speier and Jose Ferrer each threw a three-up, three-down inning against the potent Dodgers lineup. With a two-run lead off Canzone’s second home run, Bazardo added a third perfect bullpen inning.
Then, you may have blinked at the start of the ninth, and suddenly Shohei Ohtani is on 3rd base, the two-run lead cut in half due to a fielding misplay and an error (separate instances, mind you), and there’s no outs.
Muñoz is throwing as hard as we’ve seen from him in years (103? Okay?!), but wildly. The Dodgers’ win percentage jumped from 10% at the start of the inning to 56%.
This feels like a game the recent Mariners would let slip away, another poison dart directly into the heart of the State of the Discourse.
Sure, there was several three-ball counts, and definitely a walk (Curse Max Muncy and his surprising bat control). But Muñoz buckled down and gave us his best Fernando Rodney impression, equal parts terrifying and impressive, and leaving the commentariat wringing their shirts of nervous sweat, but ultimately finding the win.
The Mariners’ bullpen looks strong and the counting numbers are good. But to be part of the engine that carries the team on big runs, they need to be better under pressure. The bullpen ranks below average on wPA and wPA/LI (win percentage added over leverage index; essentially, how do they perform in high-leverage moments?). Performances like this are key for hot streaks.
This game felt like the Mariners delivering the promise of what we dreamt of this offseason. It was a thrilling, electric win, something that’s felt few and far between lately. It is the blueprint for how this team, disappoint as they may be thus far, can succeed and win against juggernauts. We’ll just have to wait and see if they can hold these pieces together, or if they’ll slip away under the rug for another couple of months.
