Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium — Manhattan, KS
- Spread: Kansas State (-2.5)
- Over/under: 55.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
- Last meeting: Houston 24, Kansas State 19 — November 2, 2024
- Current streak: Houston, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Houston and Kansas State never shared any history prior to 2023.
The results of the two previous matchups were very memorable to both fanbases. Last meeting in Manhattan, the Wildcats shut out Houston 41-0 in a “welcome to the Big 12” moment for the Cougars. But one year later in Houston, the Cougars got their revenge as Willie Fritz stunned the Wildcats and delivered his first ranked win as head coach.
Both teams enter this pivotal matchup with one conference loss, and another would be extremely detrimental
to their Big 12 title hopes. Kansas State is 3-0 at home this year, but Houston has won seven of eight on the road since the start of 2025.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) was held scoreless for 41 minutes last week against UCF, but the Cougars demonstrated their resiliency and their ability to jumpstart the offense in a hurry. They turned a 17-0 deficit into a 27-17 victory in the final 19 minutes of action as quarterback Conner Weigman rushed for three touchdowns while Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week Jonathan Dimas remained perfect in the kicking game with two late field goals.
The Cougars didn’t necessarily have a bad offensive first half. They just came up emptyhanded on three-straight possessions inside the 10-yard line. Moving the ball hasn’t been an issue for Houston all year. Slade Nagle’s offense ranks 19th nationally in yards per game (483) and 17th in points (41.0) — ahead of Kansas State by the thinnest margin in both categories.
Houston exhibits tremendous balance. The run game is 19th in production, with running backs Re’Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes each producing over 300 yards in the first five weeks. Additionally, Weigman has been an effective tertiary option, posting five rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks and 106 of his 156 yards in his two Big 12 outings.
Through the air, Weigman has been excellent. Although UCF’s defense held him to a season-low in completion rate, the fifth-year senior is still connecting on 67.4 percent of passes, delivering 11 touchdowns to one interception. However, nothing Weigman does will be surprising to Kansas State, considering Wildcats head coach Collin Klein spent as a season as his offensive coordinator at Texas A&M.
Weigman has an array of effective receiving options, ranging from First Team All-Big 12 wide receiver Amare Thomas to tight end Patrick Overmyer to a progressing deep threat in Koby Young. Thomas and Overmyer combine for 447 receiving yards and six touchdowns, while Young has scored four times and averages 22.0 yards per catch.
The biggest improvement from 2025 Houston to 2026 Houston is witnessed in the trenches. The offensive line, led by left guard Shadre Hurst, is not only thriving in the run game. The Cougars have only surrendered five sacks all season, and those five sacks cost just 11 yards. On the flipside, the defensive line is brutalizing opponents at the line of scrimmage. Houston ranks eighth nationally in run defense, allowing just 65 yards per game and 2.6 per attempt. Returning starters Brandon Mack II and Khalil Laufau combine for 9.0 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks to lead that movement.
One of Houston’s premier run stoppers, outside linebacker Jaden Yates, suffered an injury last week and his status for Saturday is unknown, which could thrust Carmycah Glass into a larger role. Containing a mobile quarterback will be essential in Manhattan, and Houston hasn’t been tasked with that much this year. Thus, Glass, Sione Fotu, and the linebackers will have their work cut out for them as the run defense takes on its greatest challenge yet.
Pass coverage is the element of the defense Houston must improve most. The Cougars are currently 123rd in the country in passing yards allowed per game, and only three FBS teams have surrendered more 20-yard passes this season. There have been positives in the secondary: Kentrell Webb has been an effective tackler, while Jordan Allen leads the Big 12 with six pass breakups. But allowing open receivers downfield is the Achilles heel of this team and will dictate how this trip to the Little Apple is remembered.
Kansas State Wildcats outlook
Kansas State (3-1, 0-1 Big 12) is fresh off an early bye week. The Wildcats dominated their non-conference slate by an aggregate score of 136-30 and only allowed two offensive touchdowns over that three-game span. All three of those games were at home. However, that sheer dominance was quickly forgotten on their first road trip to Cincinnati, where the Bearcats gashed Kansas State’s run defense in the Big 12 opener.
The Wildcats had chances to win that game. They led 10-0 in the second quarter, and if not for a critical holding penalty, their final drive may have done some damage. But Kansas State is back home, looking for a rebound to avoid an 0-2 start to conference play.
Avery Johnson will make his second start against Houston. The dual-threat quarterback’s mobility was bottled up two years ago, which allowed the Cougars to pull off a 24-19 stunner at TDECU Stadium. However, that was two years ago, and Johnson has been exceptional on the run this year. He has posted 291 rushing yards on a 9.7 average, managing 152 in Week 3 against Tulane. As a passer, Johnson is connecting on 66.2 percent of attempts and posting 228 yards per game.
Johnson still has not been sacked in 2026. Kansas State’s offensive line is the only one in the country yet to allow a sack through Week 5, which is especially impressive considering the unit lost All-Big 12 tackle John Pastore before the season. That same line is also spearheading the nation’s 13th-ranked rushing offense, which is accruing 241 yards per game. Johnson is the leading rusher, but Oklahoma State transfer Rodney Fields Jr. and longtime Wildcat Joe Jackson are thriving from the running back spots. Both collect over five yards per carry, and Fields has eclipsed 100 yards twice this season.
Jackson is utilized more in the receiving game, and he’s one of six Wildcats to corral between 11 and 16 receptions this year. Kansas State spreads the wealth around quite evenly, and no receiver boasts more than Derrick Salley Jr.‘s 178 yards — and 140 of those yards were from the Cincinnati game. One of the highly-utilized targets is tight end Garrett Oakley. Already a stellar blocker, Oakley will have to step up his role as a receiver considering his fellow tight end Will Anciaux is out for the season.
While Kansas State’s offense does not allow sacks, it’s defense certainly produces them. The Wildcats rack up 3.0 sacks per game, and Wendell Gregory is at the forefront of it all. The Oklahoma State transfer defensive end is tied with Darien Whitaker for the team-high with 2.5 sacks, and he ranks atop the roster with 8.5 tackles for loss. Gregory’s pass rushing moves have been a difficult test for every offensive line.
However, Kansas State’s defensive line needs to shore up the run defense after allowing two 120-yard rushers at Cincinnati. Outside linebacker Gabe Powers will have to come off blocks and add to his season totals of 22 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss to counter a stellar Houston ground game. The Wildcats also demand more aggressive play from the secondary as one of five FBS teams without an interception in 2026. However, Kansas State owns the No. 1 passing defense in the country, allowing 106 yards per game on a 47.3 completion percentage.
Prediction
This battle in Manhattan has the makings of a close finish. Both Houston and Kansas State feature effective offensive play and strong rushing attacks. The Cougars should provide the better counter, entering the Little Apple with a top-10 run defense, while the Wildcats struggled mightily at Cincinnati.
Yet, Kansas State can find a significant edge in this game besides homefield advantage. The Wildcats’ pass defense has been relentless all season, forcing quarterbacks into errant throws and barely surrendering over 100 yards per game.
Houston’s path to a victory lies through an effective ground game. Kansas State’s is through an explosive passing offense that can exploit the Cougars’ coverage woes. This one has all the makings of a close finish, unlike the previous meeting between the teams in Manhattan. A clutch touchdown in the final three minutes decides the victor.
Prediction: Kansas State 28, Houston 27
