Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, September 12 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: TDECU Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Houston (-5.5)
- Over/under: 44.5
- All-time series: Colorado leads, 1-0
- Last meeting: Colorado 29, Houston 17 — December 31, 1971 (Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl)
- Current streak: Colorado, 1 (1971)
Setting the scene
The Friday night lights will shine on the first Big 12 conference matchup of 2025.
The Colorado Buffaloes meet the Houston Cougars for just the second time in history and the first since the 1971 Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl. There should be a more palpable buzz than usual with this TDECU Stadium crowd, given the Cougars are 2-0 for the first time time since 2018 with Deion Sanders and Co. strolling into the city.
The Big 12 race is always an open one, so the importance of an early conference victory cannot be understated.
Colorado Buffaloes outlook
Colorado (1-1, 0-0 Big 12) picked up its first win of the season last Saturday, methodically disposing of Delaware in 31-7 fashion. The Buffaloes prepare for their first road trip of 2025 and they were quite sharp on the road in 2024 with a 4-2 record with four 14+ point victories.
The Buffaloes are already learning that there are substantial differences between the 2024 team and this new-look 2025 squad in Deion Sanders’ third year at the helm. The obvious difference is the loss of two-way Heisman superstar Travis Hunter, a talent that isn’t readily replaceable as a wide receiver or defensive ballhawk. Additionally, Sanders must find a new starting quarterback for the first time since spring of 2021 after coaching his son Shedeur at FCS Jackson State and Colorado.
The Buffaloes’ quarterback carousel has been a journey thus far. Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter, the starter in the Flames’ 2023 Fiesta Bowl appearance, earned the first two starts for Colorado and produced a collective 261 passing yards, 67 rushing yards, one passing touchdown, and two rushing touchdowns. However, the less experienced quarterbacks in the room — true freshman Julian Lewis and redshirt sophomore Ryan Staub — received substantial live reps during the Delaware game.
That’s when Colorado realized Staub’s potential in the aerial game. The third-year Buff let it rip from the moment he checked in, registering 157 passing yards and two touchdowns on a 7-of-10 showing. After leading Colorado to three touchdowns on his first four drives, he is a candidate to start Friday night. Colorado certainly has options at its disposal, with Salter (1,089 rushing yards in 2023) available if it desires more quarterback mobility.
Offensive line is an area where the Buffaloes seek progress after allowing five sacks to FBS newcomer Delaware. With star left tackle Jordan Seaton leading the group, Colorado seeks less pocket collapses against a formidable Houston front and also more success paving the way for the run game. The Buffaloes were dead last in the FBS last year with 65 rushing yards per game, but that average has already ballooned to 138 in a small sample size. Just like quarterback, Colorado is still flipping through tailbacks looking for a No. 1, with Micah Welch, Simeon Price, and Dekalon Taylor as candidates.
Taylor has been the most frequented option in the passing game with seven receptions for 87 yards and two touchdowns on the year. No wide receiver has more than five receptions through two contests, but Sincere Brown proved to be a lethal vertical threat last week with four catches spanning 120 yards, while reigning American Freshman of the Year Joseph Williams also secured several key catches.
Perhaps the best development with Colorado, compared to last year, is the defensive success. There is no Travis Hunter making spectacular plays on the ball, but the Buffaloes are up 6-0 in the turnover battle with four recovered fumbles and two interceptions. The playmaker to watch on the back end is cornerback DJ McKinney who recorded 61 tackles, eight pass breakups, and three interceptions a year ago. McKinney is a returning Buff, but one newcomer making a significant impact on defense is inside linebacker Martavius French. Arriving from UTSA, French has 10 tackles, two tackles for loss, and two fumble recoveries in this young season.
However, there are improvements to be made all around on defense. Delaware hit explosive play after explosive play in the passing game, only needing 18 completions to amass 312 passing yards. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech hurt the Buffaloes in another way, relying on Haynes King’s mobility to generate 156 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the Week 1 defeat.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston (2-0, 0-0 Big 12) is gunning for its first 3-0 start since 2016, and the Cougars have yet to leave the confines of their city. They captured the Bayou Bucket last Saturday in the final chapter of a longstanding rivalry with Rice, putting their foot on the pedal in the fourth quarter to win 35-9.
Houston never scored its first points until 40 seconds remained in the first half. Slow offensive starts have been the team’s greatest obstacle thus far, scoring seven combined points in the first 20 minutes of action vs. FCS Stephen F. Austin and Rice. However, Houston finally hit the explosives against Rice, scoring three touchdowns from 40+ yards out. Head coach Willie Fritz has been in search of a bellcow back, especially after a season-ending injury to 2024 leading rusher Re’Shaun Sanford II, and Dean Connors proved his merit in that role. Connors flew for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries against Rice, demonstrating his speed on 54 and 42-yard scoring sprints.
The passing game was the area of Houston’s offense where the Cougars hoped to grow most in 2025. They brought in an established Texas A&M transfer in Conner Weigman, who threw for a combined 347 yards and four touchdowns on a 65.2 completion rate in his first two starts in his home city. The majority of Weigman’s throws through his first seven quarters were in the short-to-medium game, but the former 5-star recruit finally showcased his gunslinging abilities in the fourth quarter last Saturday, launching a perfectly-placed deep ball to Stephon Johnson. That was Johnson’s first reception of 2025, and Houston’s 2024 leading receiver will need more utilization going forward. Right now, a heavy portion of the receiving production is allocated to tight end Tanner Koziol. A 6’7”, 250 pound walking mismatch, Koziol offers an elite catch radius which has given him 13 receptions for 115 yards (eight catches and 41 yards more than the next closest teammate).
Houston is averaging six punts per game, and the unit which needs most improvement to decrease that average is the offensive line. The Cougars are still shuffling parts to find a working 5-man unit, typically using four or five new transfers at a time. They allowed three sacks to Rice and hope the unit gels better with each passing week.
Defensively, the Cougars remain the juggernaut they were in 2024 — despite losing a coordinator and the majority of starters. New defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong has only allowed one touchdown and one field goal since arriving on campus. Houston’s refurbished defense is best when it counts, limiting opponents to 7-of-31 on third down and 0-of-5 on fourth down this season. The Cougars have faced different schemes, but they haven’t been tested too much through the air this year.
The defensive line has been a force so far as FIU transfer Eddie Walls III has an extremely quick get-off with the snap and demonstrated that at Rice with three tackles for loss. Meanwhile, Carlos Allen plugs the interior very well and produced nine tackles against the Owls’ high-powered run game.
Another position group of note is cornerback, which will see a much greater role against a pass-happy Colorado than it did in the first two outings. Latrell McCutchin thrived as an elite coverage specialist in 2024, and he returns as one of the supreme playmakers on defense with a team-high 13 tackles and a fumble recovery on the year. His new partner-in-crime Will James has been a promising development too. The Southern Miss transfer logged a pick-six last week and consistently flies around to the ball, whether it’s in coverage, stopping the run, or on special teams.
Prediction
Although gauging the caliber of competition isn’t easy through two weeks, Colorado likely serves as Houston’s toughest test yet. The Cougars have been slow starters offensively and cannot afford to let that bleed into Friday’s night showdown. In order for Houston to take that offensive leap, the Cougars need to gain more rhythm in the 10-15 yard passing game. Tight end Tanner Koziol will be an x-factor performer in this game and the advantages he is able to gain against Colorado’s linebackers, nickels, and safeties will go a long way.
Colorado’s offense showed much more explosiveness once Ryan Staub was inserted into the game last Saturday. The Buffaloes will need that because sustaining long drives on this Houston defense isn’t a simple task. This one should be a lower-scoring, more defensive matchup, and it’s all going to come down to turnovers. Houston is 6-0 in the Fritz era when winning the turnover battle and 0-8 when losing it. Colorado is a +6 on the year and Houston is a +4, with neither program coughing up the ball through two weeks.
This Big 12 opener could swing either way on a late takeaway, and Colorado’s defense has shown the ability to produce them at opportune times.
Prediction: Colorado 20, Houston 17
