It seems likely that the Pittsburgh Penguins approach to the unrestricted free agent market is going to be very similar to what it was in the summer of 2025, especially given the lack of truly high-end players that will be available in that market.
That is also a very, very good thing if it plays out that way.
The top goal-scorer on the free agent market already played for the Penguins this past season (Anthony Mantha) and there does not seem to be anybody that wants him back after his playoff performance.
But for as forgettable as that playoff showing was, Mantha was still an objectively good free agent signing given what he did over the course of the regular season and how little he actually cost them.
The Penguins took a one-year flier on him in the hopes that he could come back healthy, took advantage of the opportunity to give him an incentive-laden contract, and then watched him put together a career year. The initial goal was almost certainly to trade him at the deadline (which would have made him this season’s version of Anthony Beauvillier), but he ended up scoring more goals than anybody could have anticipated, while the Penguins ended up winning more games than anybody could have anticipated.
All of that kept him in Pittsburgh for the duration of the season.
Now that Mantha seems destined to move on, there’s going to be an opening on the roster.
Ideally there would be an internal replacement to fill that spot (looking at you, Rutger McGroarty or Ville Koivunen).
There is also the possibility that other players leave the organization along with Mantha via trade (looking at you, Rickard Rakell and/or Bryan Rust and/or Tommy Novak) which could open up additional spots.
Somebody would have to also fill them.
One name on the free agent that could follow the mold of Mantha as a potential reclamation project is Patrik Laine.
Frankly, Laine might be the only type of unrestricted free agent I have any interest in.
Alex Tuch is destined to sign with the Rangers on a contract that immediately ages like milk. I can already see him in that uniform. I can hear his name echoing throughout Madison Square Garden. It’s fate. It’s where this offseason deserves to go. It is all of their destinies.
Mason Marchment and Bobby McMann in a rising cap environment? Gross! Let Seattle and Calgary deal with that.
When it comes to making major investments this offseason you have to be thinking along the lines of trades and restricted free agents. Players still in their prime, just entering their prime or players that can provide some sort positive long-term value beyond the 2026-27 season.
After all, even though the Penguins were a playoff team a year ago they are still a team that is going through some sort of a rebuild (even if it isn’t the traditional type of rebuild people expected).
If you are going to dip into this UFA market with this Penguins team, you have to be thinking about low-risk, potentially high-reward gambles.
That is Laine.
Laine’s career has been derailed over the past few years by injuries, allowing him to appear in just 186 out of a possible 410 games over the past five seasons.
That includes just 75 games over the past three seasons and only five games this past season.
While he was limited to only five games with the Montreal Canadiens in 2025-26, he recently said he was healthy enough to play in the second half of the season only to have the Canadiens keep him on IR anyway.
All of that missed time has created the possibility for him to sign the type an incentive-filled contract that is usually only reserved for entry-level players and players over the age 35. That opens the door for a relatively cheap base-salary, with any bonus overages rolling into next year’s cap (which shouldn’t bother the Penguins given how much cap space they have and the lack of major long-term investments on the roster).
The only problem with this line of thinking is there’s probably 20 other teams in the NHL with that same mindset, which could create a more robust market for a guy that only played in five games a year ago.
But… I’m still sticking with this.
Especially since a healthy Laine can still be a potentially impactful player.
Is he one-dimensional? Probably.
But that one dimension that he provides is an important one, and he’s still really good at it when he is able to stay on the ice.
He can still shoot the puck, and he can still score goals.
Some numbers:
Between the 2022-23 and 2024-25 seasons there were 530 forwards in the NHL that played at least 500 minutes (all-situations) of hockey.
Laine’s 1.39 goals per 60 minutes placed him 27th on the list, sandwiched immediately between Cole Caufield and Brady Tkachuk, and ahead of Kyle Connor, Nikita Kucherov, Mark Scheifele, Sebastian Aho, Sidney Crosby, Matthew Tkachuk, Wyatt Johnston, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Nikolaj Ehlers.
That does not mean he’s better than all of those players (or even any of them), it just means he scored goals at a higher rate than them. And there is value in that.
In terms of actual goals, he scored 48 in 125 games during that time.
That’s a 31-goal pace over 82 games.
He also averaged 9.89 shots on goal per 60 minutes (47th out of that group of 530 forwards) and 0.84 individual expected goals per 60 minutes (232nd out of the 530).
Just for comparisons sake, the Penguins signed Mantha to his incentive-based contract coming off that same three-year stretch, and also coming off an injury-shortened year.
Mantha’s numbers and rankings among that same group of forwards:
- Goals/60: 1.04 (115th)
- Shots on goal/60: 6.78 (258th)
- Individual expected goals/60: 0.78 (290th)
The mindset with Laine could be identical to what it was with Mantha. It is a short-term, prove-it contract full of performance bonuses with the possibility of moving him at the deadline if the playoffs are not in the cards, or having a potential 30-goal scorer on your roster if the playoffs are in the cards. If you’re the Penguins and trying to sell Laine on what you can offer over other teams offering similar deals, you can literally point to the success of Mantha and what playing in Pittsburgh could do for him and his value NEXT offseason.
If it is not a move like this, I would sit out every element of the UFA signing period. But a move like this would at least be interesting. There is also some reason to believe it could work.
