In their two-season history, the Golden State Valkyries have played the Las Vegas Aces seven times.
They’re 1-6.
That doesn’t bode well for their chances of beating the defending champions three times in five games in the WNBA semifinals, which is the next task for ascendant second-year franchise. That that went 0-3 against Vegas this season, and that their lone win came in June 2025, the first-ever game between the two teams, is even less encouraging.
However, in their two seasons, the Valkyries have
obliterated expectations, headlined by making the playoffs as an expansion team before returning as the No. 2 seed this season. Defeating the Aces in the WNBA semifinals would be Golden State’s most impressive feat yet, and a sure indication that they’re now the Bay Area basketball franchise that is light-years ahead.
So, can they reverse their record against Vegas, send the champs home early and advance to the WNBA Finals? The mission begins Sunday in San Francisco in Game 1 (4 p.m. ET, NBC).
Here are the three series battlegrounds. If the Valkyries prevail, or at least draw even with, the Aces in these areas of the matchup, Ballhalla might be hosting the WNBA Finals. But if the Aces prove superior, the WNBA Finals will be returning to Sin City.
Defense
The Valkyries concluded the 2026 regular season with WNBA’s best defense, with their 99.1 defensive rating sitting over four points clear of the second-place team.
During the regular season, they registered a defensive rating of 110.0 or worse on only six occasions. Three of those came against the Aces, including their very worst defensive performance of the season. On June 21, the Aces beat the Valkyries by 19 points, 92-73, with the margin and Vegas’ total both standing as regular-season worsts for Golden State. The Aces also rang up 91 points in their 10-point win in late May. The middle game between the two teams, held in early June, was the closest, with Vegas scoring 84 points in a five-point win.
The Aces appear to be immune to the defensive designs of their former assistant coach, now Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase.
The Golden State defense also did not hold to its regular-season standard in their first-round series against the Dallas Wings. After a shutdown Game 1 win, the Wings lit up the Valkyries in Games 2 and 3, leading to Golden State finishing with a 112.5 rating against a Dallas team that finished the regular season with a 111.3 offensive rating. In the Wings’ three regular-season losses to the Valkyries, they never attained an offensive rating better than 103.9.
Vegas’ defense also slipped from the regular season to the playoffs, going from a 105.1 regular-season mark to 108.1 in the first round; however, the Aces were playing an Indiana Fever squad that tallied a 115.0 offensive rating in the regular season, which was the best mark in the league by over two points. And in their three regular season wins over the Valkyries, the Aces held them to an offensive rating of 102.6 or worse; Golden State finished the regular season with a 108.2 offensive rating.
So, is the gap between the Valkyries’ and Aces’ defensive actually as wide as the nearly seven-point difference between their regular-season defensive ratings? The track records and trends suggest not.
Additionally, attention to detail on the defensive end is a non-negotiable for Golden State for all 40 minutes of all 44 regular-season games. The three-time champion Aces, and especially their Big 3, more often modulate their defensive effort, picking their spots and situations to dial it up.
In short, the Aces have untapped defensive upside that is not reflected in their season-long stats. Do the Valkyries?
Depth
The Valkyries, unquestionably, have better depth than the Aces.
Already thin, the Aces lost NaLyssa Smith. They’re also without one of last season’s playoff risers in Dana Evans. After missing Game 3 of the first round, Stephanie Talbot remains questionable for Game 1 of the semis.
The Valkyries’ more blessed bench begins with presumptive Sixth Player of the Year Janelle Salaün and then includes former Sixth Player of the Year, won with the Aces in 2024, Tiffany Hayes and a possible future Sixth Player of the Year in Kaitlyn Chen, along with Kaila Charles.
But, how much does depth matter in the playoffs?
Conventional basketball wisdom suggests that coaches trim their rotations in the postseason, becoming more stingy with bench minutes as the playoffs progress. While nine Valkyries saw at least 10 minutes per game in all three first-round games, Nakase did rely on Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton more than in the regular season.
Eight Aces also played at least 10 minutes per game in the first round, although that includes just two games for Talbot. However, while Burton led the Valkyries with 32.1 minutes per game, all of Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson averaged almost 36 minutes per game, with Gray and Young going all 40 in Game 3. Jewell Loyd also logged over 31 minutes per game, comparable to Williams’ time for the Valkyries.
Aces head coach Becky Hammon has proven that she is going to ride with the players she trusts—and three titles show the strategy that works.
Will Nakase move in that direction, or will she continue to adhere to her alternative basketball worldview, choosing to empower players up-and-down her roster over pushing her top players?
Star power
The flip side of depth, in a sense, is star power.
And here, the Aces are undeniable. The A’ja-Chelsea-Jackie core is building a case for the best Big 3 in WNBA history. That title might already belong to them, regardless of how these playoffs unfold.
It’s pretty simply. Hammon can echo UConn head coach Geno Auriemma’s famous, “We got Diana, and you don’t,” remark and say to Nakase, the Valkyries and any other opponent, “We got A’ja, Chelsea and Jackie, and you don’t.”
Will Nakase be able to say, “We got Gabby, and you don’t,”?
That question might be the crux of the series, determing if the Valkyries can compete or will continue to be owned by the Aces. If stars, in fact, are the ceiling raisers required to win on the postseason stage, can Williams lift the Valkyries to the level required?
Williams’ WNBA ascendance has been as impressive as improbable.
During her early days with the Chicago Sky, her perceived lack of offensive role reduced her impact, and ultimately ostracized her from the organization. With the Seattle Storm, she steadily began to show off a more complete offensive game, although her efficiency as a shooter remained inconsistent. Last season, however, she made a real leap, demonstrating the three-level scoring viability she only had flashed as the first option for the French national team, a status certified by her first All-Star honor. This season, she imported and expanded on her offensive star quality with Golden State, establishing herself as the load-bearing offensive option for the Valkyries as she earned All-Star starter honors. A first All-WNBA nod might also be on the way.
During the regular season, the game that most illustrated how her offensive game has blossomed came against the Aces. Williams dropped her regular-season high 27 points when the Valkyries lost by just five points in Las Vegas, as she shot over 58 percent from the field and hit three 3s.
Of course, Williams just authored a more outstanding offensive night in the Valkyries’ Game 2 first-round loss, going for 36 points as she dueled an electric Arike Ogunbowale. In Game 3, she turned in a superstar second half, steering the Valkryies from down 16 points and into the semifinals with an 11-point fourth quarter punctuated by the go-ahead bucket.
When Gabby gets her pull-up shooting game going, complementing that efficient jump shooting with her athletic bursts to the basket, it’s conceivable that she can offer the star play necessary for Golden State. But Gabby, in contrast to A’ja, Chelsea and Jackie, has yet to confirm that she can access that kind of offensive outing on-demand; the Aces trio can.
Burton likewise can put together a big offensive night, but, even more so that with Williams, such performances are not a regular feature. Is it possible that both Gabby and VB can access their upside in a game or two? Add in an outburst from Hayes and that path to a Valkyries’ series win starts become clearer.
And yet, then you remember who’s on the other side.
I don’t think the Aces are invulnerable. But, I also don’t think Golden State has the ingredients, nor experience, required to expose and exploit those vulnerabilities.
I predict a 3-1 series win for the Aces, with their repeat quest reaching the Finals stage without too much stress.
What’s your prediction? Can Golden State get the job done? Or, do you believe that the proven power of the Aces will be too much?
