Location: Logan, Utah (Melin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium)
Date/Time: Saturday, September 13 th at 7:45 p.m. (MT)
Television: Fox Sports 1
Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the all-time series versus Utah State with a record of 7-5.
Three things to look for:
1. Turnovers
This will be the fifth time that Utah State plays Air Force since 2020, and the series is split 2-2. There have been 10 total turnovers in these last four meetings, with the Falcons committing four to the Aggies six. In their
two losses, the Falcons coughed the ball up late in the game. That cannot happen on Saturday if they want to win this game. While neither team has thrown an interception this early season, the Aggies quarterback, Bryson Barnes did put the ball on the ground twice against the Texas ATM, I mean A&M, losing one of those fumbles. Barnes defensive teammates have chipped in though, recording an interception in each game. It’s no surprise, one of those INT’s was secured by Noah Avinger, the standout defensive back on their defense.
The Falcons secondary cashed in with two turnovers of their own in the season opener versus
Bucknell. New sophomore starters Mikhail Seiken (FF) and Roger Jones (INT) paid early
dividends for Brian Knorr’s retooled defense in week one. Air Force could benefit greatly from a
few more of those forced turnovers this week, against a much better opponent with significantly more at stake in an early Conference clash. Winning the turnover battle will be critical against an opposing staff that is familiar, and has been successful against the Falcons.
2. TFL’s
It’s no secret that the Air Force offensive philosophy is hedged on long drives, consisting of
steady (and typically) modest gains. Negative yardage plays and getting behind the sticks in
now way is how this offense thrives. Contrary to the eye-popping numbers from week one, it’s
reasonable to expect a slight regression towards the mean as this week’s competition promises
to be a lot more challenging.
The Falcons will use multiple quarterbacks and more than a handful of ball carriers. Irrespective
of who has the ball in their hands, the gains need to be steady behind this promising offensive
line. And while the big hit pass plays were great in week one, it’s ultra critical those drop backs
don’t result in sacks against. Utah State’s John Miller has already collected three sacks at
linebacker. For all the things that worked in their season opener, that success promises nothing
against Utah State. So consistent execution, leading to steady gains will be essential.
On the other side it would be beneficial if the Air Force defense could assume the trend that
makes it appear open season on Bryson Barnes. The Aggies quarterback is credited with 31
carries already in the first two games. Much of that is due to the 12 sacks they have already
surrendered. Barnes is a gritty quarterback that is capable of making plays, the Air Force
defense that already recorded seven tackles behind the line of scrimmage needs to make more.
3. Best on Best
The previous Utah State teams under Blake Anderson that were most successful against Air
Force deployed an offense that spread you out sideline to sideline. This created lanes to run the
ball and got their playmakers opportunities in space. They might not have proven to have the
same caliber of playmakers collectively yet, but there are guys who can do damage. Starting
with their running back.
Miles Davis is a dynamic back, averaging over six yards per carry (138 rush yards) and another 8
yards per catch (70 receiving yards) that have led to three touchdowns in the first two weeks.
The 6 th year BYU transfer is a guy who must be accounted for. For Air Force to keep Davis from
ruining their day, it will take another good effort from the defensive line and linebackers. Blake
Fletcher specifically will need to be active and clean up plays, so long as the defensive line can
keep him clean to roam.
Payton Zdroik anchors front and center of the defense, with Blake Fletcher behind him at
linebacker. When you say best on best, Brian Knorr has to feel pretty good knowing he has
these two studs to rely on for the challenge.
I already mentioned John Miller and Noah Avinger on the Utah State defense. Their unit is going
to be tasked with preparing for more of an assault by committee than any one playmaker. And
early indications are, Air Force does have a few of them. How and where they are deployed is
what remains to be seen.
Prediction:
Can we take a moment and appreciate this game for a moment? On Saturday night at Merlin
Olsen field, we have two of the winningest active coaches in all of college football. Both Troy
Calhoun (8 th ) and Bronco Mendenhall (6 th ) are top ten in active wins among all of the FBS. These
two are the active wins leaders among all Group of Five (or six depending how you view the Pac
whatever they are). Troy Calhoun has amassed 136 career coaching victories, all with the
United States Air Force Academy. Opposite him, Bronco Mendenhall with 141 victories
between stints at BYU, Virgina and New Mexico. Impressive.
Now down to business. The aforementioned Bronco Mendenhall coaches that can say they
have a dominant record against Air Force. The Aggies head coach has faced the Falcons seven
times, winning six of them. One of those victories as recent as last year in his lone season at
New Mexico. The guy clearly knows how to win.
When looking at who might win this game, one of the hardest things to factor is both of these
team’s cumulative statistics to date. Reason being, the Falcons have presumably inflated
numbers because they beat up on an FCS school. Although as Army can attest, FCS scheduled
games are not guaranteed victories. And Utah State have starkly contrasted numbers from
week one to week two. Which you would expect, considering in week one they played UTEP,
before allowing over 550 yards to a ranked Texas A&M team.
The series between these two schools has been competitive and close, and the games
entertaining. I fully expect both of those to hold true on Saturday as well. With Bronco
Mendenhall’s track record of success, the one thing that prevents me from declaring an
expectation for them to win is difference makers.
Last year, Mendenhall had the most dynamic player in the Conference (not named Ashton
Jeanty) on his sideline in Devon Dampier. And that dude made a lot of plays! He doesn’t have
the luxury of a guy like that who can completely take over a game this year. At least no one that
has proven to.
I do believe there are multiple difference makers on the Air Force offense. And in my opinion,
the most dynamic player on the field Saturday will be Cade Harris. Miles Davis has shown early
on that he may very well be one of the Mountain West’s better running backs. But Cade Harris
showed his big play ability last year. And with a better and more experience supporting cast, he
should be even more dynamic this year for the Falcons. Including this Saturday.
What I think will be the ultimate difference maker will be their defensive front. Against
Bucknell, Air Force did not feature their entire compliment of defensive standouts. What we
learned in the absence of Daniel Grobe and Aidan Swartz playing, was the depth of that
defensive front may be even more formidable than expected.
It is not with a great deal of confidence that I predict this, but for the reasons I just mentioned,
Air Force Sings Second.
Air Force 31- Utah State 28
