Did someone say déjà vu?
After a thrilling 25–24 victory in Las Vegas over the Raiders, capped off by a walk-off field goal block. The Chicago Bears hit the road once again, this time to face the Washington Commanders in Landover. In a rainy, sloppy, back-and-forth affair, the Bears exorcised their 2024 Hail Mary demons (we’ll ignore how weird that sounds) with a walk-off 38-yard field goal to secure another 25–24 road win.
Caleb Williams, for lack of a better term, was up and down in the rain. Statistically,
he put together a respectable line: completing 17 of 29 passes for 252 yards, two total touchdowns (one rushing), a 98.6 NFL Passer Rating, and a 129.9 True Passer Rating. But despite the numbers, accuracy was an issue, completing just 58.6% of his passes, with several of those misses being way off target.
Could the stat line have looked a bit better if not for a few questionable calls from officiating going against us? Absolutely. Most notably, a touchdown strike to Rome Odunze that was called back (though it still earned a “Great” throw grade in review) which would’ve extended Rome’s touchdown streak to start the season to five games.
Anyway, we’re not here to dwell on the what-ifs.
Let’s dive into Caleb’s Week 6 metrics and breakdown.
Benchmarks
(Season Averages in Italics)
C/A: 20.3/32.5 (62.5%) | 17/29 (58.6%)
Yards: 231.8 | 252
aDOT: 8.5 | 8.5
Touchdowns: 2.3 | 2
Turnovers: 0.5 | 0
QB at Fault Sacks: .8 | 2
Passer Rating: 97.8| 98.6
True Passer Rating: 132.8| 129.9
Time to Throw: 3.04s | 2.48s
Time to Pressure: 2.62s | 2.57s
Pressure Rate: 31.31% | 26.32%
On-Target Rate: 61.9% | 66.7%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 12.2% PPR / 7.6% BPR | 12.5% PPR / 5.0% BRP
Game Notes
The full grading sheet for each play can be found here.
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 98.6 / 129.9 / 46.1
- On-Target Throws: Season Average: 61.9% | Week 6 against the Commander: 66.7%
- This marked a season high for Caleb in On-Target Throws, which honestly surprised me. Watching live, it felt like he struggled to hit anything consistently. But on rewatch through the All-22, the issue became clear: when he missed, he missed badly. It’s also worth remembering that deflected passes can still count as on-target throws, which factored into this week’s total. Both of his turnover-worthy throws were technically on target. So, moral of the story: Caleb was on target when he was on target… but when he wasn’t, he really wasn’t.
- 12.5% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against a 5.0% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays)
- We saw a spike in his Poor Play Rate this week, as Caleb threw two passes that could’ve easily been intercepted and missed on several routine completions due to poor accuracy.
- The Bears’ offensive line deserves a lot of credit. They held up well against a strong Commanders pass rush that entered Week 6 ranked 4th in Pass Rush Win Rate. The line allowed just 10 pressures on 38 dropbacks, producing a season-low 26.32% Pressure Rate.
- Caleb did take three sacks, but in my opinion, two of them were smart sacks. And while I label them as QB at fault sacks, I don’t use them in the calculation of his TPR for this week.
- First: Late in the first half, flushed left from the pocket, Caleb extended the play but found nothing open. He stayed inbounds, taking a big hit and the sack, but it forced Washington to burn their second timeout. After a great Tory Taylor punt, the Commanders kneeled out the half.
- Second: Late in the game, nearly identical situation, this time escaping right, buying time, and sliding just short of the line of scrimmage to keep the clock running, again forcing a timeout.
- We also saw a notable drop in his time to throw, nearly half a second quicker than his season average. A big factor in that was Caleb targeting the line of scrimmage and short areas on 21 of his attempts. Still, that’s a core element of Ben Johnson’s offense, and this game felt like further evidence that his offensive philosophy is taking stronger hold week by week.
- Mid and deep-range accuracy took a hit this week, with Caleb completing just 2 of 8 throws. 1-for-3 in the intermediate range and 1-for-5 on deep attempts. Both of those completions will be featured in the play review section.
Play Reviews
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game.
Analysis: The first throw of the night we’ll take a look at is Caleb’s early deep shot to Rome Odunze. The Bears dialed up a Mesh concept, with DJ Moore running the deeper dig route and Colston Loveland executing a delayed release underneath. Odunze, aligned at the bottom of the screen, runs the go route and gains a step on his defender. Caleb lets it fly deep, but it’s uncharacteristically underthrown, allowing both the trailing corner and the deep safety to close the gap before the ball arrives.
This play is graded bad because, while the throw was underthrown, Odunze still had a slim opportunity to make a play on it, though it would’ve required a miracle-level catch. If Caleb puts the proper loft and arm behind this, like we know he can, this very well could have gone for an early 6.
Analysis: This was a great play design to exploit a single-high safety look right from the start. DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus both run deep posts, putting that lone safety in conflict. Caleb’s read is simple: identify which route the safety doesn’t bite on, and deliver the throw there. If neither receiver gains the proper separation, he has Kyle Monangai available underneath for the checkdown.
Caleb makes the correct read and delivers an accurate ball to the intermediate level. However, he takes a small hit in grading for ball placement, the throw is a bit behind, preventing the receiver from turning up-field for potential yards after the catch.
Analysis: This was the first of two turnover-worthy throws on the night for Caleb. On 4th down, the Bears have Rome Odunze and Olamide Zaccheaus running levels on the bottom side, with DJ Moore running a clear out at the top of the screen. Caleb makes the correct read but hesitates, just a hitch or two too long, which allows Frankie Luvu to undercut the route. It easily could’ve been an interception.
This throw needs to come out as soon as Rome begins his break, no later than when he’s crossing the middle of the hashes. Instead, Caleb waits until well after the left hash to release, turning what should’ve been a clean conversion into a dangerous throw and a turnover on downs.
Analysis: Now on to the most explosive throw of the night. The Bears dialed up another levels concept, with Luther Burden III as the primary target and Rome Odunze running the trail route. If neither gained separation, the design included a well-drawn up screen to Kyle Monangai on the bottom side as the safety valve.
Caleb snaps out of play-action, trusts his protection, and, despite not having the cleanest base, delivers a strike into the deep level. The ball is placed with excellent touch and just enough lead to let Burden go up, snatch it out of the air, and pick up a solid chunk of YAC. This play nearly graded out as elite; the only knock is that the throw forced Burden to leave his feet. Still, it was a big-time deep shot that set up a field goal to open the second half.
Analysis: Onto a throw that would not be, thanks to an extremely ticky-tack illegal formation penalty on Theo Benedet. (I still contest Darnell Wright is farther back in the formation than Theo is!!)
In all honestly there’s not too much to this throw. It’s a fade to the back corner of the endzone, with the Commanders showing cover 0 it’s in my opinion this was Caleb’s pre-snap choice. Give his big possession receiver a chance to haul down a fade route for a touchdown. With pressure closing in and from a non-standard throwing base, Caleb lofts a ball to an area where only Rome can make a play on it, and he makes a gorgeous adjustment on the throw, hauling it in for what would have been 6.
This throw a perfect example of Caleb trusting his instincts, and his #1 wide receiver when the heat is turned up.
Analysis: Now to the final play we’ll be looking at. Based on the design, I believe the read progression here depends on how the defense reacts to Rome Odunze running the shallow-in. With the underneath defenders dropping into zone, Caleb should be working his eyes toward the top of the screen, reading the short sail concept between Cole Kmet and Olamide Zaccheaus. Against zone coverage, Zaccheaus is the more favorable target, with Kmet’s shallow out meant to hold the in-between defender.
The pass rush forces Caleb off his spot, and to his credit, he does well to find a clean area to throw from. However, he doesn’t take the time to reset his base. He rushes his mechanics and delivers the pass on the move, which causes the ball to sail high over a wide-open Zaccheaus. The broadcast mentioned him throwing a “fastball” here, and I don’t mind the velocity, the real issue was the placement. A bad grade for an opportunity on a wide open receiver.
Summary
His final scores of 1st Half (-3.10) / 2nd Half (-0.50) / Game (-3.60) land him with an overall “Bad” game grade. Out of the seven QBs I grade, he placed 6th of 6 QB’s in Week 6.
Weekly scores of every can be found here.
This was, by all measures, Caleb’s worst graded game of the season. One could argue it wasn’t his worst start, and in my humble opinion, it wasn’t. That distinction still belongs to Week 1, when he recorded 12 poor throws. The difference is that he simply had more plays and opportunities that week to offset those mistakes.
That said, I’d be lying if I called this anything other than a bad game. Caleb did manage to rebound in the second half, posting an overall average grade that included two “Great” throws. At the end of the day, though, he made the plays necessary to help secure another hard-fought road win, sending us home on a three-game win streak and setting up a home matchup against the New Orleans Saints.
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
