Cowboys and Packers. The history between these two teams could fill several books. There is enough Green Bay-induced heartbreak for Cowboys fans to single-handedly keep the therapy industry afloat. As the next chapter in this storied rivalry approaches, though, there’s a new layer: Micah Parsons.
The star edge rusher is now a Packer, and when things kick off Sunday night, it will have been exactly one month from when the trade happened. The Cowboys are fighting for revenge, still bitter about that
Wild Card loss that seemingly derailed the entire Mike McCarthy era, while the Packers are hoping to get yet another win over this franchise and simultaneously rub salt in the wound of Jerry Jones for trading away his best player over such a petty disagreement.
As of right now, the Packers are favored by 6.5 points, one of the larger spreads this week. Both teams are coming off a loss, so both will be motivated to bounce back. Do our writers think the Cowboys can shock the world on prime time? Let’s find out.
When Green Bay has the ball
Communicate in the secondary
Easier said than done, apparently. Matt Eberflus runs a very simple scheme when it comes to the secondary: the entire thing is built out of zone coverage, with the goal to keep the receivers in front of you. Yet, week after week, the Cowboys have let guys get behind them for huge chunk plays. Everyone has been burned at one time or another, and communication seems to be lacking.
Brian Schottenheimer hinted at making some scheme changes to fix it. What those changes are remains unclear, but Dallas needs to figure it out fast. Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love excel at putting a secondary in conflict and ripping off chunk plays downfield. Eberflus knows this all too well, having faced the Packers twice a year as the Bears head coach. There’s really no excuse to not have a better game plan going into this game.
When Dallas has the ball
Establish the run
Javonte Williams is playing like one of the best runners in the league right now. No, seriously, he is. He’s eighth in both rushing yards and yards per carry and sixth in EPA per rush. He’s also third in yards after contact per attempt and leads the league in rush success rate. The only problem is Dallas was trailing so fast last week that they weren’t able to run as much as they wanted to.
This week, with CeeDee Lamb out, the Cowboys surely want to establish the ground game early. Williams has proven capable of doing that, and Miles Sanders is a serviceable change of pace back. But Green Bay has one of the best run defenses, so it’ll take extra effort – especially with Cooper Beebe and Tyler Booker both injured – to get the ground game going.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (2-1):
Let’s try a bit of a reverse jinx.
Packers 38 Cowboys 20.
Matt Holleran (3-0):
It doesn’t make lots of sense, but I just have a feeling we are going to see the Cowboys come out and play better football on Sunday. After being embarrassed by the Bears, I think Dallas’ defense is going to have a chip on their shoulder and it will cause them to finally figure some things out.
Although I think they’ll play better, without CeeDee Lamb I just don’t trust Dallas’ offense to play at a high level. The Cowboys look much better than they did the week prior, but Green Bay, via a big play by Micah Parsons, gets the win.
Give me the Packers, 24-20.
Mike Poland (1-2):
Dallas has missing pieces this week due to injury, more specifically at offensive line where they’re starting two rotational pieces inside. That also applies to Green Bay who struggled on offense against Cleveland last week and scored only one touchdown. Dallas outscores Green Bay on offense by some margin and rank as a top-10 in points per game, Green Bay ranks in the bottom half.
But the problems for Dallas are even worse on defense where the team has problems in the pass rush, which is having a drop down problem with the secondary. In reverse, Green Bay is enjoying a solid season on defense and ranks as the best defense in points allowed per game. With CeeDee Lamb missing it’s hard to see how Dallas can find a way to grind a win here at home.
Cowboys lose this one 38-24.
Brian Martin (2-1):
Sadly, I believe the Packers are clearly the better team. The Cowboys defense is looking historically bad and offensively they’re down three key starters (CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Beebe, Tyler Booker) with high ankle sprains. This game looks like it could be a blowout.
Score prediction: Packers 31, Cowboys 9.
Jess Haynie (2-1):
Dallas can’t fix their defensive issues in a week, and Green Bay takes advantage.
Packers 34, Cowboys 24.
David Howman (1-2):
I’m very tempted to take the Packers here, just for the sake of giving them the kiss of death of everyone in our panel picking them. But I’m just not so sure this one plays out that way. I think the Cowboys will come out with an edge, similar to how they played against the Eagles; they’re sick and tired of hearing about Micah Parsons, and they’ll relish the opportunity to send him packing with a loss.
Offensively, I think Dallas continues to run the ball well. Javonte Williams is seeing the whole field, and Klayton Adams’ run game is a great fit for backups Brock Hoffman and TJ Bass. I also think Dak Prescott makes just enough plays with his arm to keep things on schedule. As for the defense, I see Jadeveon Clowney making a splash against a weak offensive line, and Jordan Love turns it over twice to give Dallas just enough of an edge.
Cowboys win 31-28.
