Two weeks ago when we did this exercise, the New York Jets were effectively tied with the New Orleans Saints for the third-highest draft odds and were projected to pick right around fourth overall. Since then, the Jets played two games, both as slight underdogs. They beat the Atlanta Falcons and then got blown out by division rivals Miami. Let’s take a look at how that impacted where the Jets are most likely to be picking.
As a reminder, we’re using the same two metrics as before: DAVE (FTN’s predictive
metric) and ESPN’s FPI. Both are forward-looking, all-encompassing team metrics we can use to simulate the remainder of the season.
Starting with DAVE, the Jets currently rank 29th, just below New Orleans but ahead of Las Vegas, Tennessee, and Cleveland. With a tough schedule remaining, DAVE simulations (1,000 runs) give the Jets an average of 1.1 wins over their final four games. As a result, DAVE puts them at a 3.4% chance of landing the top pick and a 53.4% chance of earning a top-five pick. Both figures are well below Tennessee, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, and roughly in line with the New York (Giants), New Orleans, and Washington.
ESPN’s FPI once again views the Jets slightly more negatively, ranking them 30th. FPI simulations project them to finish with 4.1 wins on average—tied with Cleveland and almost identical to the Giants, but slightly ahead of Las Vegas and Tennessee. According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, FPI gives the Jets a 59.2% chance at a top-five pick and a 5.2% chance at the top pick:
https://x.com/SethWalder/status/1998078516974485516?s=20
It’s worth noting from a tiebreaker standpoint that the Jets will almost certainly pick behind Cleveland, New Orleans, and Washington in the event of identical records. However, they would likely pick ahead of Las Vegas, the Giants, Arizona, and Tennessee if they finish with the same record.
The Jets do face one of the tougher remaining four-game stretches, with matchups at Jacksonville, at New Orleans, vs. New England, and at Buffalo. Assuming no major injuries or late-season rest situations, they’ll likely be underdogs in all four—and sizable underdogs in three of them. These ranking metrics also assume Brady Cook is not starting for the Jets; if he is, they’d almost certainly grade out even worse.
The playoff race may be over for the Jets, but from a draft-position standpoint, there’s still plenty to watch.
