If nothing else, the one thing you can say about this 2025 Philadelphia Eagles season is that it has been unique.
Following Sunday night’s 16-9 win over the previously red-hot Detroit Lions, the 8-2 Eagles share the best record in the NFC with the Los Angeles Rams and hold the No. 1 seed in the conference, thanks to their head-to-head victory over L.A. earlier in the season. They are almost certain to win their second straight NFC East title (something no team in the division has done since 2004),
and are in control of their own destiny for home field advantage throughout the postseason.
Those are all things to celebrate. The defense is playing on another level. To shut down a Lions team that put up 44 points, piled up 30 first downs and accumulated 546 yards of total offense last week against Washington was breathtaking to behold.
The acquisition of Jaelan Phillips as well as the returns of Nolan Smith and Brandon Graham has given the pass rush more juice than anyone could have dreamed. Nakobe Dean is emerging as an All-Pro caliber talent since he came back from injured reserve and the secondary is finally starting to come together, with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean shutting down opposing receivers down on a regular basis.
After giving up just nine points and allowing a mere 13 first downs and 317 yards of offense while turning away all five Lions 4th-down conversions, the Eagles’ defense has risen to 8th-best in terms of points per game (20.1). All the trend lines are heading in the right direction.
The offense, however, remains stuck in the mud. When playing within structure, Jalen Hurts had difficulty finding open receivers, the running game was largely ineffective, and the play calling once again appeared vanilla and predictable. Their biggest plays were made out of structure. A.J. Brown was targeted but mostly quiet, Saquon Barkley found few holes to run through and explosive plays were once again non-existent.
At this point, you have to wonder if this is all the Eagles are going to get from Kevin Patullo and Nick Sirianni’s offense. And, if it is, is it enough?
The reason Eagles fans are angsty is because most Super Bowl champions don’t have lackluster offenses. One analysis following the 2022 Super Bowl took a look at every Super Bowl winner going back to the 1970 Colts to see how often a champion featured one of the league’s best offenses, defenses and/or both. The numbers are particularly interesting to both the Eagles, the NFC’s top seed, and the Denver Broncos, who are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Both Philadelphia and Denver are averaging 23.4 points per game, tied for 16th in the NFL. These two teams are led by their defenses, with Denver’s 17.5 points per game allowed 3rd-best, while Philadelphia’s 20.1 points per game allowed is 8th.
Should the Eagles’ and Broncos’ offensive numbers hold, the data shows only three Super Bowl winners finished with a worse PPG average offensively: the 2008 Steelers (20th), 2015 Broncos (19th) and 2002 Buccaneers (18th). Only five other Super Bowl winners finished outside the top-10 in offense: the 1982 Redskins and ‘03 Patriots (12th), 2000 Ravens and ‘07 Giants (14th) and the 1990 Giants (15th).
Of the eight teams above, six featured the No. 1 defense in football, based on PPG: the ‘82 Redskins, ‘90 Giants, ‘00 Ravens, ‘02 Bucs, ‘03 Patriots, and ‘08 Steelers. The ‘15 Broncos had the No. 4 defense and the ‘07 Giants somehow won the Super Bowl with the No. 17 defense (no one will ever be able to explain the 2007 Giants). As Medium noted two years ago, since the merger, the average Super Bowl winner is ranked 5.7th on offense and 6.0 on defense.
In other words, if you’re going to have a middling offense, your defense better be out of this world. Last year’s Eagles averaged 27.2 points per game, 7th-best in the NFL, with a defense that was 2nd-best, at 17.8 PPG. The 2022 Eagles averaged 28.1 points per game, 3rd-best, with a defense that was tied for 7th-best, at 20.2 PPG. The ‘17 Birds? They were tied for 2nd in offensive points per game, 28.6, and 4th in defense, 18.4.
Can the Eagles pull out of their offensive rut? One would think that, if they had the answers, they would have discovered them by now. Sirianni could take back the play calling duties he gave up midway through the 2021 season, but that seems unlikely. There are levers the Eagles could still pull, such as asking Jalen Hurts to run the ball more, potentially opening up the RPO running game to Barkley, or reducing the number of two and three tight-end sets, going empty more, creating crosses and rub plays over the middle, etc.
The schedule will lighten up, too. It’s remarkable the Eagles have played the most difficult schedule in the NFL and gone 8-2, with wins over the Rams, Packers, Bucs, Lions and Chiefs. They have the 7th-easiest schedule the rest of the way, with their toughest match-ups remaining road games against the Bills and Chargers and a home game on Black Friday against the rejuvenated Bears. They get to play the Cowboys in Dallas next week, host the Raiders and still get the awful Commanders twice in the final three weeks. In terms of the defenses Hurts and the Eagles’ offense will face over their final seven games, here’s where they rank (PPG):
- Cowboys (29th)
- Bears (24th)
- Chargers (11th)
- Raiders (18th)
- Commanders (26th)
- Bills (14th)
But there are concerns. Lane Johnson’s Lisfranc injury will hurt, although they have managed to win games with Fred Johnson in for Johnson during Lane’s various injuries this season. A.J. Brown, his complaining aside, doesn’t look like the same player he was a season ago. The offensive line isn’t run blocking very well, and, yes, there is real concern Patullo is overmatched.
Even if nothing changes, the Eagles can win the Super Bowl with a middle-of-the-pack offense and an elite defense.
It just hasn’t been done a whole lot.
