Of course I’ve been thinking plenty about what the Buffalo Bills might do before the NFL trade deadline.
And I’ve decided to transfer my stream of consciousness on this topic to my keyboard for this piece.
I’m a firm believer that in the NFL, in-season trade value is set, or at least calibrated against, the compensatory pick a player most likely would be able to fetch his original team in the future.
Of course, those compensatory picks don’t arrive until the year after a player signs a new deal in following
March, so the waiting game must be considered.
But for example, I’d essentially make no sense for a team to accept a fifth-round pick in a deadline deal for a veteran if said veteran could net the club a third-rounder a year down the road.
Let’s use Josh Downs for example, the most recent feature in the Bills trade candidate series here at Rumblings.
Spotrac’s current market value for Downs is $16.9 million per year. It projects him to sign a four-year, $67M contract in free agency next March, if he makes it there.
With Downs on an expiring contract, the team he’s on the end of 2026 NFL season would likely receive a fourth-round compensatory pick (and a third-rounder isn’t out of the question) in 2028 for his departure, if, of course, that club signs fewer unrestricted free agents than it loses in the 2027 free-agent cycle.
(Given the Bills are set to be $37.8M OVER the 2027 cap and currently have eight players set to be qualifying unrestricted free agents, it’s a reasonably safe bet they will lose more UFAs than they sign. In 2026’s free-agent cycle, Buffalo lost three qualifying UFAs and signed two.)
For the sake of the argument here, let’s assume a deal for Downs in the $16M – $17M APY range would net that fourth-round compensatory selection in the 2028 NFL Draft.
That likely sets the floor regarding what the Colts would like to get in return for Downs in a trade before the deadline on November 10.
Assuming there are a few suitors for Downs, the Colts could be in search of a third-round pick for the veteran receiver.
The Bills are expected to have two fourths in the 2027 NFL Draft — their own pick and the projected compensatory pick they got for David Edwards signing a sizable deal with the Saints.
In continuing this hypothetical, the Bills would, of course, prefer to send a fourth-round pick for Downs and initially reluctant to trade away a 2027 third-round selection for him.
(again, I do not know anything in the previous sentence to be true… we are living in hypothetical land right now)
Here’s why I think it’d make perfect sense for the Bills to ultimately decide to use that third-round selection for Downs (or any other trade candidate on an expiring deal):
If they did make that trade, these are the possible outcomes, within reason. And let’s start by assuming Downs almost assuredly makes the Bills a better team for the second half of the 2026 regular season, and presumably, the playoffs:
- After major productivity, he prices himself out of what the Bills want to pay him on a second contract, and he signs a lucrative, multi-year deal elsewhere in free agency. In this scenario, Buffalo nets a 2028 third-round (or fourth-round) compensatory pick for their “rental.” The draft-pick cost to acquire him would, at worst, would be Buffalo moving down from one round to the next, and waiting a year. At best, the compensatory pick would negate the draft-pick cost to trade for him.
- After major productivity, the Bills decide he’s a core piece of the receiving corps who will be 26 years old before the start of the 2027 campaign and sign him to a multi-year extension. Said extension features a reasonable cap hit in the first year, a slightly higher one in the next, then finally a cap hit above his contract’s APY in 2029, when he’ll be 28 and D.J. Moore will be 32.
- After solid-but-unspectacular productivity, the Bills let Downs walk in free agency, and net a fifth or sixth-round compensatory pick in the process. Of course, this is the least desirable outcome for the Bills and Downs. A two or three-round “drop” in the draft for the Downs rental (going from third-round pick to acquire him to, potentially, a sixth-round pick from the compensatory system).
- After solid-but-unspectacular productivity, the Bills and Downs agree to a more team-friendly deal in the $10M – $14M APY range. For context, the contract Khalil Shakir signed before the 2025 campaign features $13.6M in APY. Buffalo gets a solid-but-unspectacular possession wideout entering his prime at somewhat of a bargain price.
Of course, there are other possible outcomes, including Downs playing horribly and/or getting hurt. It’s impossible to predict whether or not the latter would occur, so it’s not worth mentioning here.
As far as the former, given his steadiness in the NFL, fine start to 2026, and the offense he’d be entering, it’s reasonably safe to project Downs making a solid impact at the very least in Buffalo.
Therefore, the worst possible outcome (within reason) for the Bills would be sending a third-round pick to the Colts and only getting a sixth-round pick in 2028 for his March 2027 departure from Buffalo.
But wouldn’t amplifying the offense this season be worth, in the worst-case scenario, a possible three-round drop in the draft?
I think it would.
