NC State Takes on Ole Miss in Greensboro

When: Sunday December 21 – 1:00 PM

Where: First Horizon Coliseum Greensboro NC

TV: ESPN2

Opponent: Ole Miss Rebels (SEC Conference)

Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 79-73 / NC State 79-73

Wolfpack Snapshot:

• Record: 8-4, 0-0
• Rankings: KP #28, BT #27
• NET Ranking: NET 32, 5th in ACC Conf NET rankings
• NET performance: Q1 (1-3), Q2 (1-1), Q3 (2-0), Q4 (4-0)

Wolfpack Season So Far:

Coach Wade from the Texas Southern postgame press conference:

“We gave up too many points. Too many offensive rebounds. Our attention to detail, our effort, our intensity — on a consistent basis, every possession — it’s not where it needs to be. We’ve got to fix that quickly, because we play Ole Miss on Sunday. … A lot of the stuff we did tonight will not cut it on Sunday.”

Specific things Coach Wade identified as lacking; (1) The Pack gives up too many offensive rebounds, (2) no weak side shot blocking, (3) giving up points on baseline out-of-bounds plays, (4) executing the Pack’s own out-of-bounds plays.

Coach Wade says he needs to get players revved up and ready to go, need physicality, attention to detail / effort / intensity on every possession.

What’s On the Line?

This is a Q2 game, Ole Miss is currently NET 91 and this is a neutral court game. They are an SEC team, and it’s going to be tough sledding in that conference this season. Unlikely they will climb enough to make this a Q1 game but it could fall the other way.

Wolfpack Player Notes:

• Darrion Williams was held out of the Texas Southern game to rest a sore shoulder. He is expected to play against Ole Miss.
• Tre Holloman did not start against Texas Southern and was seen getting therapy on his left hip at halftime. He did play 18 minutes. No reason to believe he will not play against Ole Miss.

Opponent Overview:

Media voters predicted Ole Miss would finish 8^th in the SEC in preseason voting

Coach Chris Beard is coming off a 24-12 / 10-8 Sweet 16 season. He lost 5 double figure scorers from that team, but did retain talented senior big man Malik Dia. He filled out his starting lineup with transfers, the highlights being AJ Storr from Kansas and Ilias Kamardine from France. Other key transfers:

• Cory Chest – LSU
• Travis Perry – Kentucky
• James Scott – Louisville (a player NC State went after in the portal wars)
• Kezza Giffa – High Point (originally from France)
• Auguston Gassia – Butler (originally from Brazil)
• Euardo Klafke – Brazil

Opponent Snapshot:

• Record: 7-4,0-0
• Rankings: KP #58, BT #67
• NET Ranking: NET 91, 14th in SEC Conf NET rankings
• NET performance: Q1 (0-2), Q2 (0-1), Q3 (3-1), Q4 (4-0)

Their Season So Far:

(A brief review of the Wolfpack opponent’s season to date. Wins in bold. Includes their opponent, their opponent’s KenPom rank, the score – Wolfpack’s opponent’s score first, and a short recap of the game if informative. If the description is “Blowout”, it was not competitive.) 

1. Southeast Louisiana (KP #283) 88-58 – Blowout
2. Louisiana Monroe (KP #355) 86-65 – Blowout
3. Memphis (KP #72) 83-77 – Ole Miss up 9 at half, shot 51.9% / 61.5% (8-13 3PT)
4. Cal St Bakersfield (KP #313) 82-60 – Blowout
5. Austin Peay (KP #185) 72-65 – Ole Miss up 8 at half, AP tied it at 52 with 6 minutes left. Ole Miss pushed the lead to six and was never seriously threatened the rest of the way.
6. Iowa (KP #20) 69-74 Neutral – Tight game, tied at the half, Iowa led most of the way but Ole Miss took the lead with 7:22 to go. Iowa retook the lead and never lost it.
7. Utah (KP #130) 74-75 Neutral – Utes up 8 at the half, very tight the entire second half, Ole Miss led 74-73 with 57 seconds left. The Utes got fouled at the rim with 4 seconds left and hit both free throws to seal the deal.
8. Miami (FL) (KP #36) 66-75 – Miami up 16 at the half and led by at least 9 the second half. Ole Miss shot only 25.8 FG% in the first while Miami shot 46.7% including 8 made 3PT.  Miami out-rebounded Ole Miss 45-29.
9. St John’s (KP #16) 58-63 Away – SJ forced 13 turnovers and had 6 blocks to put them up 8 at the half, SJ kept the lead at two possessions the second half.
10. Southern Miss (KP #190) 71-67 Neutral – Ole Miss had a 2 point lead at the half, SM took a five point lead halfway through the second, but OM retook the lead with 11 minutes remaining and held it the remainder of the game.
11. Alabama A&M (KP #276) 80-66 – Blowout

Player Notes

• Malik Dia – Preseason All-SEC 2^nd team

What to watch for:

1. Have the players mentally departed for the Christmas holidays? – Few coaches schedule teams as challenging as Ole Miss 4 days before Christmas. Gangster!
2. Rotation Tinkering is Over – A Team – Unless forced by injury or fouls, the Ole Miss rotation is probably what we’ll see the rest of the season. Williams, Lubin, Copeland, McNeil will dominate the minutes.
3. Rotation Tinkering is Over – A minus team – Holloman and Breed will share the fifth role. Comparing their per minute stats, Holloman scores quite a bit better than Breed and is shooting 43% from 3PT, but Breed rebounds nearly twice as well as Holloman and turns it over about a third as much. Steals and assists are about equal. Breed has averaged 20+ minutes over the last four games and could take the starting role. Especially if he could dial up a little more scoring. But no matter the starter, they both will play a lot.
4. Rotation Tinkering is Over – B team – The Not (quite) Ready for Prime Time players. Able is good enough to get double-digit minutes every night, some games he’s a real asset and others he’s less so. I think he’ll win a game for us. Sagnia is our best big man defender – he leads the team in blocks and is 3rd in steals, but is still adjusting to American ball and is an offensive liability. Best case, he could give 10-15 solid minutes every game in relief of Lubin but he’s not there yet. Ebube could factor in here as well. (“…let him go in there and wreck things up.” Got to love big Scottie!) Need to keep Lubin closer to averaging 25 min than 35 min to survive the season. Arceneaux has yet to move to Raleigh. (mentally) He has the highest upside on the B team and will keep getting minutes in hopes of seeing that upside show up. Hopefully he gets in sync soon. He could be a difference maker if Texas Terrance shows up.
5. Shot blocking – Ole Miss is ranked 8^th in blocked shots, Seton Hall who blocked 9 on the Pack is currently 1^st, so the team should have a good idea of what to expect.