As we gear up for another year of SEC football, let’s take a look around the conference and see what the field looks like. Below, I’ve broken all sixteen teams into four power tiers based on their returning production and likelihood of contending for a playoff spot.
Tier 1: Playoff Contenders
Depending on the breaks, you can anticipate the SEC getting four or five teams into the playoff. The four teams in the top tier are the likeliest to compete for the league championship and make the playoff field.
Georgia
The Dawgs emerged from
SEC media days as the favorite to win the SEC. Even if you’re not a fan, the voters’ bullishness makes sense: Georgia is defending back-to-back conference titles, returns an experienced quarterback, and is one of only four teams in the NCAA whose coach has won a national championship. Few teams are as safe a bet for playoff contention as UGA. To wit, Georgia has lost 10 conference games in the last nine seasons.
Still, there will be some questions at receiver and offensive line, and you’d hope to see more havoc on defense. The schedule is tough, with trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford both looking risky. But the expectation in Athens is to be playing meaningful football in January, and anything less will be a letdown.
Texas
Year Two of the Arch Manning experience will get underway with expectations still sky-high despite a disappointing 2025 campaign. Is Arch massively overhyped, or did he suffer last year from a weak offensive line, unimpressive receivers, and a nonexistent running game? Prize transfer Cam Coleman is here in part to answer that question.
Of the teams in the top tier, Texas might have the widest range of possible outcomes. If Manning pops, he’s a Heisman contender and Texas should compete for the national championship. If he flops, it’s a bowl-season trip to Shreveport and Steve Sarkisian is probably getting a pink slip. Maybe the biggest reason for pessimism amongst Longhorn fans is the brutal. Regular season games against Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss, plus road tests in Knoxville, Baton Rouge, and College Station are all loseable. If Sark wants another season in Austin, he’s going to have to find a way to win most of those.
Ole Miss
Somehow Ole Miss got good? I’m as surprised as you are! But they’re bringing back one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC in Trinidad Chambliss, alongside All-SEC running back Kewan Lacy. The personnel should ease the team’s transition to a defensive-minded head coach and new offensive coordinator.
Speaking of that head coach, we’ll have to see if Pete Golding’s playoff run was a fluke or a sign that Ole Miss can sustain this level of success under the new administration. The Rebs’ trip to play LSU in week three is preseason appointment viewing for narrative reasons alone, and it’s also one of four possible losses, along with games against Texas, Oklahoma, and UGA. If Oxford is really turning into a hot spot, Golding will need to split those four at a minimum.
Texas A&M
A&M’s playoff run last year suggests they finally made the right hire in Mike Elko. Then again, their late-season swoon makes me wonder if there’s something innate to the A&M ecosystem that refuses to allow the team’s fans joy. Curse or not, they’ve got explosive QB-WR combo Marcel Reed and Mario Craver coming back, and Elko’s teams always field a reliably stout defense. I’d say they’re primed for regression, but a slightly more favorable schedule (the road game against Bama will be tough, but they get the Horns at home) means they have a pretty good shot to get back to the playoffs.
Tier 2: Tossups
The teams in this tier have some questions to answer, but at least one of them will probably make the playoff field.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma rode a fierce defense and a good-enough offense to a surprise playoff appearance last season, the highlight of which was winning in Tuscaloosa. It seems like things are getting early late for Brent Venables’ tenure in Norman, so he better pull another rabbit out of his hat this year. On the plus side, quarterback John Mateer is back for another run. On the other hand, he might not really be all that good. They have to play Michigan in Ann Arbor and us in Athens, and I doubt they’ll be favored in Red River. Still, of the teams in this tier, I’d bet on Oklahoma over the others thanks to fewer personnel questions.
Alabama
The old saying about death, taxes, and the Tide is looking less true by the day, but you should still keep paying your accountant. Kalen DeBoer, who’s always making a face like he’s just been informed the casino can’t extend his credit line further, is not endearing himself to the locals after two disappointing-by-Bama-standards seasons. Will this be the year he sorts it out? Well, the Tide lost Ty Simpson to the draft, and they still haven’t settled on a new starting quarterback yet. Austin Mack was supposed to be the next man up, but redshirt freshman Keelon Russell has been pushing for the starter spot. Perhaps of greater concern is wideout Ryan Coleman-Williams, whose sophomore campaign was a major disappointment for the Tide. But I’ve been nervous about going back to Tuscaloosa since I saw the schedule, so the mystique isn’t all gone.
LSU
LSU entered last season with national championship hype and ended up firing Brian Kelly before Thanksgiving. Fortunately, they replaced that dour, pouty, unlikeable blowhard with…uh…a dour, pouty, unlikeable blowhard who does yoga. They also added quarterback Sam Leavitt from Arizona State, who should theoretically benefit from Kiffin’s tutelage. I’m sure LSU fans are thrilled to see the Kiffin era begin, but let’s remember that he’s never coached in a playoff game and he generally leaves his jobs fleeing an angry mob with torches and pitchforks. After the spectacle he made of himself last winter, nobody’s going to be inclined to take it easy on him here either.
Tennessee
Josh Heupel has stabilized what had become a toxic and dysfunctional Tennessee program, but he hasn’t been able to get all the way over the hump yet. He hasn’t managed a conference title or a playoff win, though the Vols did make the 2024 field. As of now, the Heupel Vols are high floor, low ceiling absent a highly effective quarterback like Hendon Hooker. With a true freshman likely to start under center, the Vols probably aren’t going back to the playoffs this year.
Tier 3: Disaster Avoiders
The third tier of teams should mostly focus on bowl eligibility. It’s not impossible that one of these four could catch lightning in a bottle and make a surprise playoff run, but they all have serious questions pre-season. Mostly, they’re aiming for six wins and a bowl berth.
South Carolina
The 2024 edition of the Gamecocks overachieved thanks to a surprising breakout season from quarterback LaNorris Sellers, but last year’s squad collapsed and went 4-8. Sellers struggled some with injuries, and would-be stud Nyck Harbor still hasn’t delivered on his potential. Their losses last year ranged from humiliating (getting shellacked 31-7 by Vanderbilt at home) to gut-wrenching (blowing a 27-point lead against A&M) and dried up the reservoir of goodwill Shane Beamer had earned. He enters this season with the hottest seat in the SEC, and he’s going to need a great season, and maybe even a playoff appearance, to be safe. How likely is that? Well, when Sellers is good, he looks like the number one overall draft pick. But it’s hard to see him carrying this team past seven or eight wins.
Missouri
Eli Drinkwitz has spent most of his time as Missouri’s head coach trying to get any other job he can. He (or his agent) gets floated for every opening, up to and including the assistant manager job at your local Costco. But he’s two seasons removed from his last legitimately good team, and it’s hard to imagine this edition will be the one that gets him back to the top of anyone’s list. Beau Pribula took his talents to Virginia, so the Tigers brought in Austin Simmons from Ole Miss at quarterback. Simmons is a dynamic athlete, but he lost his job last year to a D-II transfer, which might raise an eyebrow or two. The Tigers’ most potent offensive threat is running back Ahmad Hardy, who shouldn’t miss too much time after he was shot this offseason. But with games against Texas, A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma, the schedule is a gauntlet. Simmons would have to flourish for Mizzou to get more than seven or eight wins.
Florida
Since Urban Meyer slinked out of Gainesville to go back to his first love of terrorizing Whoville, the Gators have cycled through four coaches. They’re breaking in a new coach again, having replaced Billy Napier with Jon Sumrall, a guy whose resume is…a lot like Billy Napier. Florida is getting a little bit of dark horse playoff buzz, but that seems wildly unlikely in year one of a new administration. Complicating things more for Sumrall, he’ll be breaking in a new quarterback, most likely Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo. And outside of another former Engineer, receiver Eric Singleton, Jr., there’s not a lot to write home about on this roster. Games against UGA, Texas, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss all augur poorly, and the Gators should be satisfied with a bowl spot.
Auburn
Auburn is one of six SEC teams breaking in a new coach this year. New chief Alex Golesh earned a reputation as an offensive wunderkind as the OC at Tennessee, and he scored a major upset when his USF Bulls knocked off Florida in the Swamp last year. On his way out of Tampa, Golesh took everything that wasn’t nailed down, including explosive quarterback Byrum Brown. It remains to be seen if Brown can consistently deliver against stouter competition, but Auburn’s offense was so dreadful last year that it would be hard to not see some improvement. After a half-decade of nothing much, Auburn should be happy to achieve even modest watchability this year.
Tier 4: The Basement
Bringing up the rear, these four teams in the participation trophy tier.
Vanderbilt
Diego Pavia delivered the Commodores the best season in school history last year before squandering every bit of national goodwill that earned him en route to getting cut by the Ravens as a UDFA. Still, the vibes were good in Nashville last year with double-digit wins and poaching quarterback Jared Curtis from Georgia. Curtis will compete with Blaze Berlowitz (and I guess Whit Muschamp?) for the starting job, but head coach Clark Lea will almost certainly have to play Curtis to keep another team from luring him away after the season. The Dores still have a couple of explosive threats in wide receiver Junior Sherrill and running back Sedrick Alexander, and they’re easily the most dangerous of the bottom-tier teams. But there’s no way they’re getting back to 10 wins, and even bowling will be a stretch. Keeping Curtis and making a bowl game would be an unqualified success.
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby has quietly accomplished basically nothing as Mississippi State’s head coach, and it’s unlikely this year will change that trajectory. Former Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann and the well-traveled Jaden Rashada are here to compete for the starting job, and True Dawg fans will remember wideout Anthony Evans from his time in Athens as well. MS State also has a good running back in the delightfully named Fluff Bothwell, but this roster is unlikely to be seriously competitive. If they miss a bowl game, Lebby’s time may be up here.
Kentucky
One of the league’s perennial doormats, the Wildcats finally sent Mark Stoops packing after a 5-7 season that produced zero lasting memories. Stoops was Kentucky’s winningest coach, finishing his time in Lexington with a balanced 82-80 win-loss record. Firing your best coach ever is generally unwise, and former Oregon OC Will Stein will have his work cut out for him since this roster is almost all chaff. Unless, of course, you believe Kenny Minchey lost the Notre Dame QB battle and transferred out because he was too good. Anything can happen, but it feels like winning two SEC games would be a huge accomplishment for this year’s Kentucky.
Arkansas
Sam Pittman, who remains a hero to me, got the gate last year after six seasons in which he took Arkansas from a disastrous laughingstock to a forgettable afterthought in the SEC race. In Fayetteville, that’s actually good progress. The Hawgs briefly thought they were luring Alex Golesh away from Tampa before he took a detour to Auburn, so they settled for Memphis’s Ryan Silverfield as a consolation prize. Silverfield was fine to fine-plus at Memphis, but this two-deep is a shambles. Bowl eligibility is probably a pipe dream, and even winning a league game would count as a huge success.
