Welcome to Big Cat Country’s staff roundtable!
Today, we’re previewing Week 16’s matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
Question 1: As we asked Jaguars fans earlier this week, are you surprised by Trevor Lawrence’s recent play?
Dillon Appleman: Yes, I am surprised. Not necessarily the individual game performances themselves, but Lawrence stringing together three straight great games is something we rarely see from him. Consistency has been his
biggest issue his entire career, which is why the perception of him in the football community is all over the place. This game against Denver is going to either make or break the “has he finally turned the corner?” talk.
Travis Holmes: Lawrence’s play since his 4-interception outing against the Cardinals has definitely been a surprise for me. I have been steady in my offseason thoughts that I would give the team and Lawrence the first half of the season to figure things out before passing judgment. However, even with that withheld criticism, I failed to see this level of play, this quickly, on the horizon. Nevertheless, consistency has always been the word of the year when discussing Lawrence’s play. He will still be challenged, on a week-by-week basis, to prove that he is closer to this product than he was before the bye week, when Lawrence faced tougher defensive competition. Next up, Vance Joseph and the Denver Broncos.
Gus Logue: As a longtime Lawrence backer, I’m not surprised that he’s put together a stretch of MVP-caliber play, but the timing of this stretch was certainly unexpected. The Jaguars limped into the bye week after being smacked around by the Rams and Seahawks’ pass rushes, and with Travis Hunter placed on season-ending injured reserve, the offense’s rest-of-season outlook looked grim. But everything has suddenly clicked into place. The Week 10 loss to Houston reset Jacksonville’s focus, the trade deadline acquisition of Jakobi Meyers provided a level of dependability, and the use of a wristband by Lawrence aided the pre-snap operation. At the time of the bye, I thought the Jaguars would sneak into the playoffs, not storm into it with a high-powered passing attack.
Henry Zimmer: I think it’s fair to be surprised by Trevor Lawrence’s play recently. As anyone who has watched Lawrence knows, there are plenty of rollercoaster games from him. Recently, those rollercoaster experiences have been eliminated. It’s coming at the right time but needs to be maintained for a few more weeks if the Jags are to do anything.
Question 2: What’s a matchup you’re looking forward to watching?
Dillon: Cole Van Lanen vs. Nik Bonitto. The Jags’ do-it-all sixth offensive lineman has filled in at left tackle of late and thrived in Walker Little’s absence (missed last two games with injury). In fact, he’s been so good that it may lead to him outright taking the job from the recently extended Little. That said, Van Lanen has a huge task ahead of him this week against a DPOY candidate in Bonitto. His performance could have a direct impact on the game’s result.
Travis: There are a multitude of great matchups to choose from this week, but I’m going with Jaguars CB Montaric Brown vs Broncos WR Courtland Sutton. We somewhat know that the 4.5-second 40-yard dasher Brown will likely play the most snaps of all Jacksonville cornerbacks. Meanwhile, the 4.5 40 Sutton isn’t a burner either. He is a technician as a route runner who wins on contested catches by high-pointing the football. These also happen to be two areas where Montaric has shown himself to be strong, as a stout press corner who’s great at trusting his eyes and instincts in zone coverage, while getting his hands on the ball in contested situations. This will be the matchup that decides the game.
Gus: Tight end Evan Engram against safety Antonio Johnson. The former Jaguar has had a quiet campaign after signing with the Broncos in the offseason, but Jacksonville has been torched by top tight ends this year, and maybe Sean Payton will draw something up for Engram against his former team. He probably won’t find much success against Johnson, though. The third-year safety quietly ranks third among all defensive backs in PFF grade this season, behind only star nickel corners Devon Witherspoon and Jalen Pitre.
Henry: My matchup in this game will be the game of cat and mouse between Sean Payton and Liam Coen. These are two coaches who have their teams playing as well as anyone, but one will have to be bested. Both quarterbacks are playing well, but one has to lose. Hopefully Coen, like in recent weeks, will be able to out-scheme anyone across the field from him and get the win.
Question 3: Who will be the biggest X-factor?
Dillon: To piggyback off the last question, I think it’s Cole Van Lanen. The Broncos are dominant against the run (2nd in YPG allowed), and the Jags know they will now be without Bhayshul Tuten, meaning the rushing attack will have to have a different game plan than normal. That’s not a good recipe against this front. That leads me to believe the passing game will again be what the Jags lean on, which means Trevor needs to stay upright. If Bonitto has his way with Van Lanen, I don’t see how the Jags steal this game in Denver.
Travis: Broncos rookie RB (and my UCF alumnus) RJ Harvey. The Jaguars staff clearly has an intimate understanding of Harvey’s strengths and weaknesses, as most fans likely remember the post-draft report that Jacksonville was heavily interested in selecting Harvey. Following a college career where his primary difficulties were ball security and pass protection, Harvey lost his first career fumble last week against Green Bay on the opening drive. At UCF, Harvey allowed three sacks and 22 pressures in just 189 pass protection snaps in 2023 and 2024 (11.6% pressure rate allowed). Additionally, he fumbled six times, losing five of them in his final three seasons. I’d be shocked if Campanile, whose unit is fourth in the NFL in fumbles recovered, isn’t drilling Jacksonville defenders to punch and rip at the ball religiously this week and planning on blitzing often to force RJ to prove that he has improved as a blocker. I think they make their draft darling prove that his past issues are truly in the past.
Gus: Courtland Sutton, who leads the NFL with 468 receiving yards on 3rd and 4th down this year. Jacksonville has played very well against opposing WR1s recently after being burned by them to start the season, but they also haven’t faced many alphas during their five-game win streak. I think a big day from Sutton is Denver’s clearest path to a productive offensive performance on Sunday.
Henry: The biggest X-Factor to me is the aforementioned Lawrence. The Broncos have won 11 games straight, and that is largely due to their defense. In those games, the Broncos have allowed teams to score over 20 points just four times. Meanwhile, the Jags have scored over 25 points in seven straight games. Lawrence will have to lead this offense again against one of the best defenses he has faced to victory behind his arm.
Final score prediction?
Dillon: Jaguars 20, Broncos 28
Travis: Jaguars 27, Broncos 24
Gus: Jaguars 23, Broncos 21
Henry: Jaguars 31, Broncos 30
What are your Week 16 predictions, Jaguars fans? Let us know in the comments!
