If you’re a regular reader of Blogging The Boys, you’re probably familiar with a metric called Approximate Value. If not, consider this post your introduction.
We’ve used Approximate Value (AV) and the closely related Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) on and off for more than a decade, and particularly often during our draft coverage. As we ramp up our draft coverage again this year, we’ll likely feature the metric repeatedly. So, in order to get everybody on the same page, we’ll use this post as a detailed
introduction to AV.
”Approximate Value” was developed by Doug Drinen at Pro-Football-Reference.com and is designed to assign a specific value to any player at any position for any given year. The algorithm behind AV weights position-specific metrics (i.e. yards or points scored/allowed) with an indicator for durability (total games played and seasons as their team’s primary starter) and quality (Pro Bowl and All Pro nominations) and then normalizes all this at a team level. Drinen left PFR a while back, but PFR continues to update these numbers.
There are many ways to use the AV metric, one of them is to look at the 2025 Cowboys roster through the AV lens, which is what we’ll do today. Before diving into the Cowboys’ numbers though, a little more explanation by Doug Drinen:
“Essentially, AV is a substitute for — and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion — metrics like ‘number of seasons as a starter’ or ‘number of times making the Pro Bowl’ or the like. You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between.”
And like every stat, AV has its limitations.
“AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can’t be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV.”
This is an important aspect to keep in mind: The AV numbers are relative. Players on good teams will score higher than players on bad teams, some positions (e.g. QB) will score higher than others (e.g. safeties), position groups (e.g. offensive linemen) will score roughly the same even if there are differences in actual performance.
You can sum up a player’s AV over the course of his NFL career to get a Career Approximate Value (cAV), which is the unweighted sum of a player’s AV scores, but PFR also offers a Weighted Career Approximate Value (wAV), which is a way of balancing peak production against raw career totals; for each player, PFR computes the following weighted sum of seasonal AV scores:
100% of the player’s best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus 85% of his 4th-best season, …
And so on.
For a single season, the AV number starts at 0 and has gone as high as 26 only once in the Super Bowl era: In 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson reached that mark when he set the NFL record for rushing TDs (28) and also topped the league with 1,815 rushing yards.
Topping the 2025 list is Houston’s Will Anderson with 20 points, followed by two fellow defensive linemen, Myles Garret and Zach Allen, both with 19 points. AV points are fluid from one year to the next, but a rough scale for this year would look something like this:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Approximate Value | Description | No. of players 2025 |
| 19-25 | MVP- or Player Of The Year level performance | 3 |
| 12-18 | All-Pro/Pro Bowl level performance | 57 |
| 6-11 | Starter quality | 403 |
| 3-5 | Backup player or limited playing time | 467 |
| 1-2 | Role player | 735 |
| 0 | Scrub | 523 |
Note that there are only 463 players in the league with an AV of six points or more, an indication of starter quality. That’s an average of only about 15 players per NFL team, and that’s an important take-away here: No team in the league has starter quality players at every position, especially not in the salary cap era. Keep that in mind as we review the Cowboys roster below, sorted in descending order from 15 points to zero.
Twelve to Fifteen Points – The Pro Bowlers
- 1. Dak Prescott (15 points)
- 2. George Pickens (14)
The AV metric is heavily weighted toward rate or counting stats like passing or receiving yards instead of efficiency metrics, and that plays in Prescott’s favor, as he had a prolific passing season (No.1 in completions, No.3 in yards, No. 4 in TDs) in 2025. With 15 points, Prescott ranks T4th behind only Josh Allen (18), Drake Maye (18), and Matthew Stafford (16) and got a Pro Bowl nod for his 2025 season.
Fellow Pro Bowler George Pickens is also ranked T4th among wide receivers: He ranked 3rd overall in receiving yards, but ranked “only” 8th in TDs, so he is ranked behind Puka Nacua (18), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16), and Zay Flowers (14).
Nine to Ten Points – The borderline Pro Bowlers
- CeeDee Lamb (10)
- Quinnen Williams (9)
- Tyler Smith (9)
- Javonte Williams (9)
- Terence Steele (9)
Lamb missed three games, and that likely cost him a point or two in AV. Barring injury he’d likely have been ranked a tier higher. But he eventually made the Pro Bowl anyway, so all is well.
Quinnen Williams als0 made the Pro Bowl, and his AV was arguably impacted by playing in Dallas for half a season. PFR gave him six AV points for eight games with the Jets, but only three points for seven games in Dallas. And that’s because a defensive lineman’s rating is largely based on how many games he played, how many games he started, how good his team was defensively, and whether he garnered any All-Pro or Pro Bowl honors. But like Lamb, he too still made the Pro Bowl.
Tyler Smith is the third Pro Bowler in this tier.
Javonte Williams ranked ninth in rushing yards last year, but is ranked “only” T14th in AV. In this case, missing post-season accolades see him ranked behind his peers.
Terence Steele looks like the odd one out here, given the grief he receives from many Cowboys fans. But he has started 17 games for three years in a row and has averaged 8 AV points per season over his six-year career. Many have argued that Steele needs to be cut to generate cap savings of between $9 million (pre-June 1) and $14 million (post-June 1) but at the cost of about $9 million in dead money. Few realize that extending him by an extra two years could save the Cowboys up to $10 million in 2026 without any dead money. Don’t be surprised if the Cowboys extend Steele.
Six Points – The Wiley Veterans and the Rookie Standout
- Kenny Clark
- Kenneth Murray
- Tyler Booker
Kenny Clark gets the Quinnen Williams AV-treatment for coming to Dallas. Clark averaged 9 AV in Green Bay for the last four years, and then drops to 6 points in Dallas. That’s the effect of playing for the worst defense in the league.
Kenneth Murray benefits from starting 16 games thanks to a supremely weak Cowboys LB room that didn’t see anybody challenging the lackluster Murray for his spot.
If Tyler Booker had not missed three games, he might have reached seven AV points, a promising start for the rookie standout.
Five Points – The starters with reduced starts and the Pro Bowl gift
- Osa Odighizuwa
- Cooper Beebe
- Tyler Guyton
- Jake Ferguson
Three starters here did not start the full 17 games, Odighizuwa (13 starts), Beebe (11 starts), Guyton (10 starts) are all penalized for missing starts. Ferguson profits from a late Pro Bowl nod that elevates him into this six-point tier.
Four points: The Backups
- Donovan Wilson (15 starts)
- Dante Fowler (11 starts)
- Logan Wilson (8 starts)
- Brock Hoffman (7 starts)
- Ryan Flournoy (4 starts)
- KaVontae Turpin (2 starts)
Most players listed here received limited playing time as they spelled the starters or had specific but limited roles on the team.
The odd one out is starting safety Donovan Wilson, and you’ll notice that he is the highest-ranked secondary player on the team. And that has a lot to do with how much the secondary underperformed last year. Here’s a simplified version of how the AV for the secondary is calculated:
AV = (Individual points / Sum of all individual points for all secondary players) * Team points for secondary
Individual Points: Games started * 5 + Games played + Sacks + Fumble recoveries * 4 + Interceptions * 4 + Defensive TDs * 5 + Tackles + Post-season bonus.
Team Points: Defensive points allowed per drive / NFL average defensive points allowed per drive.
You can see how a team that ranked T22nd in sacks, T24th in fumble recoveries, T29 in interceptions, scored just one defensive TD, and ranked dead last in points allowed per drive won’t have great defensive AVs, especially for a turnover-bereft secondary.
Three points: Underperforming defense and backup OL
- Malik Hooker (12 starts)
- DaRon Bland (12 starts)
- Kaiir Elam (7 starts)
- Jadeveon Clowney (6 starts)
- Donovan Ezeiruaku (9 starts)
- Sam Williams (5 starts)
- T.J. Bass (5 starts)
- Nathan Thomas (4 starts)
What is true for the secondary also holds true for the pass rush: there just wasn’t a ton of production that would warrant higher grades.
The two backup linemen show up well here, just two points below Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe. Does that mean they are ready to challenge the starters? Perhaps. But the Cowboys did play musical chairs on the offensive line last year, so it might be instructive to understand how the whole OL came together in terms of AV. To do that, I looked at who started at which position and then allocated the AV points accordingly. Here’s the result:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| LT | LG | C | RG | RT | |||||
| Player (Starts) | AV | Player (Starts) | AV | Player (Starts) | AV | Player (Starts) | AV | Player (Starts) | AV |
| Guyton (10) | 5 | Smith (13) | 7 | Beebe (11) | 5 | Booker (14) | 6 | Steele (17) | 9 |
| Thomas (4) | 3 | Bass (2) | 1 | Hoffman (6) | 4 | Bass (3) | 2 | ||
| Smith (3) | 2 | Hoffman (1) | 0 | ||||||
| Adeniji (1) | 1 | ||||||||
| Total | 10 | Total | 9 | Total | 9 | Total | 8 | Total | 9 |
As you can see, AV is distributed pretty evenly across the offensive line, the variance in individual player AV is largely due to the different number off starts.
Two Points – The Marginal Contributors
- Markquese Bell
- Trevon Diggs
- Reddy Steward
- DeMarvion Overshown
- Shemar James
- Marist Liufau
- Jack Sanborn
- Malik Davis
- Jalen Tolbert
These are all players who received limited playing time for different reasons. The question in this group is about trajectories: Are their arrows pointing up or down?
One Point – The Role Players
- Luke Schoonmaker (2nd round pick)
- Shavon Revel (3rd round)
- Caelen Carson (5th round)
- Jaydon Blue (5th round)
- Solomon Thomas (Free agent acquisition)
- Miles Sanders (Free agent acquisition)
- James Houston (Free agent acquisition)
- Hakeem Adeniji (Free agent acquisition)
- Joe Milton (Trade acquisition)
- Trikweze Bridges (Waiver wire)
- Juanyeh Thomas (UDFA)
- Hunter Luepke (UDFA)
- Brevyn Spann-Ford (UDFA
- Alijah Clark (UDFA)
This is a bit of a tricky group. In principle, these are players that saw limited playing time, but for different reasons. Some of them are special teams aces, some were limited by injuries, some simply didn’t put up a lot of production, some of them simply are career backups.
For the Cowboys, it’s a little disappointing to see some of their recent draft investments on this list.
Zero Points – The Scrubs
This list contains all players who were active on the game-day roster at least once in 2025 (and are not on IR) but did not record any significant stats or playing time. Note that special teams play is not included here or any of the metrics above.
- Jay Toia (90)
- Mazi Smith (89)
- Jonathan Mingo (80)
- Josh Butler (26)
- Corey Ballentine (23)
- Phil Mafah (10)
- Jalen Moreno-Cropper (8)
- Trevor Keegan (6)
- Zion Childress (5)
- Isaiah Land (3)
- Parris Campbell (2)
- Justin Barron (0)
- Ajani Cornelius (0)
- Princeton Fant (0)
- Nick Leverett (0)
- Perrion Winfrey (0)
Before anybody starts hyperventilating about who the AV metric is calling a scrub, keep in mind that this is a measure of the performance in 2025, and most of these players did not accumulate any significant playing time as you can see by the snap count behind each name. Note that where the number indicates zero snaps on offense or defense, each player had at least some snaps on special teams.
Special Teams:
- Brandon Aubrey (4 AV)
- Bryan Anger (2 AV)
- Trent Sieg (1 AV)
- CJ Goodwin (1 AV)
AV is not really designed for special teams play, so these special teamers are running outside of the regular ranking. Of note though: Brandon Aubry is tied for 4th among kickers, Bryan Anger is tied for 9th among punters, and Trent Sieg is tied for 29th among long snappers.
***
So, there you have it, the entire 2025 Cowboys roster at a glance. In total (and including specialists), that’s 201 AV points for the Cowboys, which ranks them somewhere around 19th in the league.
Also, note that the Cowboys have just 10 players with an AV of six points or more, signifying starter quality. You may disagree with this, of course, but the AV metric says 12 of the 22 starter spots last season were manned by non- starter-quality players for the Cowboys. The positions without a single starter-quality player: corner, safety, defensive end, and tight end – and linebacker barely squeezed in one starter-quality player, though I don’t think Kenneth Murray is that.
And finally, here’s how the Cowboys roster compares to the league average and to the Super Bowl champions in terms of AV Tiers.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Approximate Value | Description | Total NFL 2025 | Dallas Cowboys 2025 | Seatte Seahawks 2025 | |||
| No. of Players | in % | No. of Players | in % | No. of Players | in % | ||
| 19-25 | MVP- or Player Of The Year level performance | 3 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 12-18 | All-Pro/Pro Bowl level performance | 57 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.8% | 5 | 7.8% |
| 6-11 | Starter quality | 403 | 18.4% | 8 | 11.1% | 11 | 17.2% |
| 3-5 | Backup player or limited playing time | 467 | 21.3% | 19 | 26.4% | 13 | 20.3% |
| 1-2 | Role player | 735 | 33.6% | 27 | 37.5% | 17 | 26.6% |
| 0 | Scrub | 523 | 23.9% | 16 | 22.2% | 18 | 28.1% |
With 2.8% of the players in the all-Pro/Pro Bowl tier, the Cowboys are right at the league average, but they are three players short in that tier versus the Seahawks. Could CeeDee Lamb (10), Quinnen Williams (9), and Tyler Smith (9) move up into that tier in 2026? Sure they can, but that would leave the Cowboys even more stretched in the Starter Quality tier, where they are already short at least three players versus the Seahawks and four versus the league average. Can some guys move up from the tier below to fill that gap? Sure, if Cooper Beebe, Tyler Guyton, Daron Bland, or DeMarvion Overshown can play a 17-game schedule in full health, no problem. But health issues are going to hit you every season.
In short, the 2025 Cowboys, as measured by AV were about 5-6 starter quality performances away from being at least a league average team and possibly even a contending team. That’s a lot to fix in one offseason.
But winning can help: The 6-10 team in 2020 managed only 189 AV points but rebounded to a 12-5 record in 2021 and 243 AV points. And like the 2025 team, the 2020 team only had 10 players of starter quality and above, and that number jumped to 17 in 2021. The Cowboys will need to repeat that in 2026.
