With the Los Angeles Rams dismantling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football one week after beating the Seattle Seahawks, this is a team that appears to be moving full steam ahead. They have
now won six straight games and are widely considered the best team in the NFL.
Head coach Sean McVay has certainly been in this spot before in his tenure. The Rams were 8-3 in 2017 and 10-1 after Week 12 in 2018, serving as front-runners in both seasons. While McVay has been in this spot, it’s generally new for many on this current Rams team. Over the past two seasons, the Rams have largely been playing from behind the eight ball late in the year. In 2023, the Rams had to recover from 3-6 to make the playoffs. Last season, the Rams were 1-4 and then 5-6 after losing by three scores to the Philadelphia Eagles.
This Rams team with this group of players is generally in an unfamiliar position. That isn’t to say that they aren’t well-equipped to handle it. The Rams have the coaching staff and leadership to keep the team focused on the end goal. However, this is the first time that they have been front-runners this late in the season.
Over the last two years, the Rams have been playing their best football heading into the playoffs. They won five straight games heading into the postseason last year with their lone loss being a Week 18 matchup in which they rested their starters. They were arguably the hottest team in the NFL. In 2023, they won seven of their final eight games. The only loss came to the Baltimore Ravens on the road in overtime.
To call it a concern would be hyperbolic, but the hope right now is that the Rams aren’t peaking or that they haven’t peaked too early. The Rams typically have done a good job growing into the season and begin to play their best football when it matters most. This Rams team is currently playing very good football. A question now is whether or not they can sustain it over the next two months.
Every year there are teams that get hot in the middle third of the season and then fizzle out down the stretch. Here are just a few examples in just the NFC over the last five years:
- 2024 Green Bay Packers: Won 7-of-8 games after 2-2 start to get to 9-3. Lost 4-of-6 games down the stretch, including NFC Wild Card game to the Eagles.
- 2023 Philadelphia Eagles: Started season 10-1. Lost 6-of-7 games down the stretch, including NFC Wild Card game to the Buccaneers.
- 2022 Minnesota Vikings: Had historic start to season with 10-2 record. Went 3-3 in final five games, including NFC Wild Card game to the New York Giants.
- 2021 Arizona Cardinals: Began season 7-0 and were 9-2 in Week 12. Lost 5-of-7 games down the stretch, including NFC Wild Card game to the Rams.
- 2020 New Orleans Saints: Won 9 straight games after 1-2 start. Went 3-3 down the stretch, winning one playoff game and losing in NFC Divisional Round to the Buccaneers.
This isn’t something exclusive to teams learning how to win. The Eagles were in the Super Bowl in 2022 before collapsing in 2023. In 2020, the Saints were led by Drew Brees and Sean Payton who knew what it took to win down the stretch.
Again, this isn’t to say that the Rams are on the verge of a collapse. Still, it is worth wondering whether or not this team can sustain at their current level. Being able to do so is going to be critical if they want to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and make a run at the Super Bowl.
With that said, there is a big difference in how the Rams are winning games compared to those teams on that list. How the Rams are winning hasn’t been fluky. Outside of the 2021 Cardinals, the four other teams had unsustainable records in one-score games. The 2024 Packers were 5-2 in one-score games during the highs of their season. In 2023, the Eagles were 7-1 while the Minnesota Vikings were 6-0 the year prior. The Saints in 2020 were 5-1 in games decided by one score.
As it stands, the Rams are 3-2 in one-score games. They’ve had luck go against them in losses against the Eagles and 49ers. In wins against the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks, they’ve had luck go equally in their favor. The ironic part is that the Rams were affected on opposite ends of the spectrum in similar ways across those four games.
In the win against the Colts, the Rams benefitted from a costly fumble on the one-yard line that would have put them down 17-13 early in the third quarter. They had fumble luck go against them the following week when Kyren Williams fumbled to potentially win the game. In the loss to the Eagles, the Rams missed a game-winning field goal in the final seconds. The Rams beat the Seahawks with a missed game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
Those things tend to even out over the course of the season and the Rams aren’t consistently just edging opponents in close games. Five of the Rams’ six wins during this run have come by double digits. They did so four times against teams that are currently in the playoff picture. It’s worth noting that two of those games were with Cooper Rush and Mac Jones at quarterback. However, in Jones’ case, he isn’t that much of a drop-off from Purdy. The Buccaneers may be managing injuries, but they scored 32 points against the Buffalo Bills the week prior and lost a one-score game to the 10-2 New England Patriots the week before that.
It’s not as if the Rams are beating up on bad teams. The Rams have a strength of victory of 0.520 which trails only the Eagles and randomly the 2-10 New York Giants. Comparatively, the Seahawks have a strength of victory of 0.352 and the Chicago Bears are at 0.309. They are also first in point differential at +127. All of the teams listed earlier only ranked as high as third. The Cardinals in 2021 led the group with +108.
There will always be some concern whether a team is peaking at the right or wrong time. At the same time, good teams consistently win. The Eagles were 9-2 at this time last year and went on to win the Super Bowl. After Week 12 of 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs were 8-3. Despite losing three of their next four games, they managed to get back on track and win back-to-back Super Bowls. In 2022, the Chiefs lost three games the entire year.
The Rams are 9-2 and will likely be favored in five of their final six games. It’s very possible that they end up 14-3 heading into the playoffs. Since 2016, six of the nine teams to win 14 games at least made the Super Bowl. Two of the three teams that didn’t were the Lions and Vikings last season with the third team being the 2019 Ravens. In four of the five years that there has been a 14-win team, one of them has won the Super Bowl. Again, the 2019 Ravens are the exception.
As always, the crucial part here is being able to stay healthy. If the Rams are able to remain healthy, there shouldn’t be any risk of a drop in performance. According to DVOA, the Rams have the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in the NFL. The only thing that can stop the Rams from achieving their goal is themselves.
