We’re only 22 days away from the Owners locking out the Players in the major labor dispute that has loomed over the sport for the last 18 months. Chaim Bloom, newly minted GM Rob Cerfolio, and the St. Louis Cardinals front office have a very limited window to operate to improve the big league roster heading into the 2027 season. There are areas of the roster that those in and out of the organization have identified as areas to address. Some want to see a significant addition to the starting rotation;
others want the focus to be on the bullpen; 3rd base has been speculated on relentlessly; and those here at VEB made a convincing argument that center field is somewhere that the front office should NOT be complacent.
Nathan Church, who is the incumbent at the position, left a lot to be desired in his performance a season ago after Victor Scott II, once again, did not display tangible improvement offensively and subsequently lost his roster spot, as he now faces uncertainty about whether or not he will be tendered a contract this offseason. Of the 23 MLB CFs who had a minimum of 450 PAs, Nathan Church ranked 21st in fWAR, 19th in OBP (.290), 15th in SLG (.364), 19th in OPS (.654), 20th in ISO (.118), 18th in wRC+ (81), 19th in wOBA (.288), and 19th in xwOBA (.283). Coming into the season, Church was viewed as more of a 4th OF type by me and other 3rd party evaluators, and those numbers suggest that those evaluations were correct. Church can be a serviceable late-game defensive replacement or a short-term fill-in, but he should not be relied upon to start in extended stretches of the season.
Steven Kwan is a name that has a ton of intrigue to me if the Cardinals want to make a short-term investment: a 4-time Gold Glove winner and a consistent 3-5 win player per season. That kind of improvement in value could potentially push the position player group to a strong wild-card contender. Before anyone decides to participate in fake outrage, no, that’s not the annual goal of an established franchise with a history of winning, like the St. Louis Cardinals. But after 4 consecutive seasons of missing the playoffs in an era where it’s never been easier to achieve a playoff berth, that would represent a welcome step forward. The Guardians are a notoriously challenging front office to make deals with; however, their baseball ops people have a model they follow relentlessly and can present challenges lining up on the value of a return. If Chaim Bloom and Co. decide that the price for Kwan is too rich, they can pivot to the free agent market where today’s topic target exists.
A common theme among Cardinals fans is that because of the success of the “Dustin May experiment,” the front office should replicate that with another starting pitcher this offseason. Fellow writer Scott Plaza has advocated ad nauseam for Kris Bubic, and while I don’t hate the idea, I even advocated for him in the piece that I pulled back at the last second last month before changing course and advocating for more opportunities from internal pieces in the rotation. But let’s not close ourselves off to the idea that the sign-and-flip process is exclusive to just the pitching staff.
Luis Robert Jr’s profile matches up with Dustin May in more ways than you might have initially thought. An under-30 player who has high upside measurables, has struggled with injuries, and is in need of a reset in an environment that can guarantee him starting opportunities and has had success with keeping players healthy. “Lou-Bob,” as those on the South Side called him, suffered through another injury-plagued season after being dealt to the New York Mets. Let’s be honest, pretty much every player brought in by the Mets last offseason underperformed, so I’m willing to overlook what was mostly a lost season for him in an organization that proved it wasn’t able to get the most out of its players.
Robert Jr. did, however, display a career-high average bat speed of 77.3 MPH, which would narrowly rank him 3rd on the Cardinals behind Jordan Walker (79.3 MPH) and Joshua Baez (77.5 MPH). Why is bat speed important? For one, it increases exit velocities and is a widely recognized indicator of power potential. Faster bat speed also allows hitters to wait back longer and provides greater adjustability when trying to recognize spin. Because of those two elements, it also allows players the ability to find success even if they don’t catch the barrel flush on the ball.
Sprint speed is another top-notch element of Robert Jr’s game that he can use on both sides of the ball to impact a game. He registered 28.9 ft/s sprint speeds in 2026, and that would have rated as the 4th fastest on the team behind Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez, and Victor Scott II. The power/speed combo is one that can really raise the floor of a team’s upside, and Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez, and a potential addition of Luis Robert Jr. could give the Cardinals one of the highest-upside outfields in baseball.
Injuries are, of course, part of the discussion, but nothing that I think is indicative of immediate concern. A couple of right hip flexor issues, a sprained wrist, an MCL sprain, and a couple of hamstring strains are a part of his injury history. There is one injury, of note, that would grant some pause, that was a bulging lumbar spine disc herniation. The good news is that it is not a result of playing the game of baseball but is more commonly associated with poor form when lifting heavy weights; it was likely suffered during training, and he has since returned to play after the injury. St. Louis has its fair share of recent outfielders with injury questions, including Tyler O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar.
So, whats the cost? In this industry, money talks. Former VEB writer Ben Clemens over at Fangraphs projected him to receive a 1-year, $ 14 million contract, and their staff writer had this to say about Robert Jr:
As you read this, approximately 25 hitting coaches are watching video of Robert hit and thinking, “I can fix him.” A handful of those coaches might be right, but the decision-makers in front offices shouldn’t count on it, as doing so would require Robert staying healthy long enough for a potential fix to take hold and he has yet to make it through a 162-game season without missing significant time. His only season without an IL stint was 2020, which famously was much shorter than a typical season.
After impressing at the plate over his first several seasons, Robert hasn’t posted an above-average wRC+ since 2023. Injuries likely played a role in that, but despite diminished overall production, he has demonstrated growth at the plate over the last couple of years. He’s become more patient at the plate, swinging and, more importantly, whiffing less. As a result, his walks are up and his strikeouts are down. His bat speed increased by nearly two ticks last season and perhaps relatedly, his power numbers crept up as well; even though he only logged 230 plate appearances, he clubbed 11 home runs.
When healthy, Robert should still offer solid outfield defense. His arm has lost a little juice, but his sprint speed remains elite. Still, given his slew of soft tissue injuries, it may be prudent to pencil him in at DH once or twice a week.
IF the Cardinals can manage to keep him healthy, this is a guy with 30-30 upside. Luis Robert Jr. could provide more upside, more potential, more potential ROI (if they manage to find themselves out of it at the deadline) OR one of their young CF options like Tai Peete or Josiah Ragsdale proves ready to take the everyday job. Chaim Bloom has preached “urgency and conceding nothing” along with his vision for the franchise’s long-term approach. Cardinals fans are excited about the direction of the team when it comes to the long-term core pieces being developed. But they are also simultaneously getting antsy when it comes to results on the field and in the standings, and as previously stated, it’s now been 4 consecutive seasons without a postseason appearance, which is now the longest such stretch during the 21st century. Though this offseason brings a short window for activity, inactivity will not be met with a pleasant response from fans, not only in online discourse, but the DeWitt family can expect a depression in ticket sales to reflect that as well, and Cardinals fans seem intent on matching the investment made by ownership and front office alike.
-thanks for reading
