The NFL’s 2026 schedule dropped Thursday night, and with it came the layers of context that are when the Cowboys face their various opponents throughout this year. Expectations are high entering this season, with many believing in Christian Parker and this revamped defense being enough to send the Cowboys back to the postseason.
Yet, the
layout of the schedule this year is far from ideal.
Everyone knows the NFL is a marathon, not a sprint. Still, how a team starts out can often dictate their season. While nobody wins a Lombardi in Week 1, only 2.4% of teams that start 0-3 (since 1990) go on to reach the playoffs. Similarly, only 1.7% of teams that start 3-6 end up making the playoffs.
A poor start to the year is never impossible to overcome, but it can absolutely be detrimental for the future. Morale can take a hit, players can tune out their coaches, and entire fan bases can stop caring (and stop showing up), which always makes owners more trigger-happy with their coaches.
While it would probably take a catastrophic year for Brian Schottenheimer to even be in serious jeopardy this season, the Cowboys were dealt no favors in the first half of their schedule.
In their first nine games, only three of them are legitimate home games. The clash with the Ravens will officially be a home game, but it’s taking place in Rio de Janeiro – the first NFL game to ever happen in the Marvelous City – so it won’t really carry the typical advantages of playing on the home field.
Of those three remaining true home games, one is against the division rival Commanders. Washington is used to traveling to Dallas, of course, so that’s one more manner of diluting the homefield advantage factor. And the second game, of course, is a Thursday Night Football showdown, giving the Cowboys just four days to host the Buccaneers after a road game against the Texans and their ferocious defense.
The third such game in this span is a noon game hosting the Cardinals. On paper, that one isn’t all that ominous, though fans know all too well that the Cardinals have always had the star’s number regardless of venue. Even so, for those keeping track at home, that’s one true home game without any sort of dilution to homefield advantage.
And the road games in between there are no joke, either. Starting the season off with John Harbaugh’s debut as the Giants head coach gets followed up with the aforementioned Texans. Then it’s back-to-back games against the Packers and Eagles, two franchises that have delivered plenty of heartbreak to this fan base over the years. And the ninth game is against the Colts, who started 8-2 last year before injuries derailed their season.
Going 3-6 over that span is entirely possible. It may not be probable – one would venture to guess the Cowboys will be favored in four or five of these contests – but a couple unlucky bounces could easily get the team to 3-6 or worse. And if that happens… well, the odds of getting back to the playoffs are obviously not great.
The back half of the schedule isn’t a cakewalk either, though a three-game home stretch and a rare mini-bye after the Thanksgiving game are certainly welcome surprises. The Cowboys will need to hit the ground running in 2026 if they want to prove their offseason buzz was more than just that, because the schedule makers have left very little room for error.
What part of the schedule worries you the most?
