The Portland Trail Blazers are closing in on a (hopefully) exciting new chapter in their history as the 2025-26 season approaches. In about a month from now, we’ll be talking about real, live games. In the meantime, we’re tackling burning questions about the upcoming year, including this one.
Dear Dave,
I’m excited for the new year to start because the line up seems new this year. I know it’s not completely new but even the players coming back have something to prove as you’ve pointed out a lot of
times. Who do you think is the most important player when we start considering all the changes and the chances of actually competing? I know who I think the best player is (Deni) but I could choose from so many when trying to guess who’s going to step up and make that big difference. Are you as excited about that as I am?
Susan
Excited is part of it. It’s also an old maxim of mine that the more serious questions you have to ask and hope you have to invest, the worse a team’s season is going to go. That’s because the NBA is full of other teams working hard to make sure the answer to your questions is the worst possible.
Think of it like Shaedon Sharpe (theoretically) soaring for an unopposed dunk versus driving the lane against two defenders. The result isn’t going to be the same. Most teams are going to put those (metaphorical) defenders in Portland’s way, meaning the lowest possible result is closer to reality than the highest most times. Winning teams are more sure than hopeful.
BUT…the Blazers are in a better position now than they have been the last few years. If nothing else, they should learn more about themselves and the players on the team. They’ve lacked talent and structure in preceding seasons. They’ve been conducting scientific experiments by pouring test materials on the floor instead of in a petri dish. This year they have at least the hope of cohesion, health and coaching willing. That means a chance to make the leap forward you suggest, plus more certainty of being able to ascertain why they can’t if they don’t.
Like you, I had to think long and hard about a “most pivotal player” on this roster. In case you missed it, I put the question before the Blazer’s Edge readership last week. You can read their thoughts through that link. They split pretty evenly between Sharpe and Scoot Henderson.
Today I’m going to parse the meaning of your question in a couple different ways that will yield different answers.
If you’re talking about me, personally, I’m going to go with the readers and select Sharpe. He’s going into a potential contract-changing season, his fourth in the NBA. I know he started with relatively little experience so I’ll land on this lightly, but he’s playing shooting guard. It’s not the most complex position on the court. Nor are the expectations for him arcane. He needs to score with authority, keep developing his perimeter game, and give real effort on defense. If he can do those things, everything else should take care of itself. He has two critical seasons to establish his credentials. This year and next year are go time. Eyes are open and on him. That puts him at or near the front of the “pivotal” line.
If we’re talking about variability–which player has the greatest distance between ceiling and floor–I’m going with the other half of the readership and looking at Henderson. If the Blazers let him play his kind of game and the fuse lights under him, Scoot might still be dominant. But he could also stall again, this time with the weight of Jrue Holiday, eventually Damian Lillard, and an ocean of expectations looming over his head. Point guard is the hardest position to learn; the road ahead of him is steep. Nobody else on the team could end up at the summit or the bottom of an avalanche the same way Scoot can. Either way, it’s going to make a difference to Portland’s future and plans for same.
If we look at the player whose performance has the greatest potential to lift or cement the team, Deni Avdija stands at the top of the list. He played so many roles for the Blazers last year: defender, break-leader, scorer, passer, chief enthusiast. Nobody else touched so many parts of the game as he. If Deni picks up where he left off and maybe adds a wrinkle or two, he’s going to solidify the lineup even if there’s variability around him. If he doesn’t show up, this roster is suddenly weaker and much more speculative, almost as if they’re restarting their rebuild instead of working on Year 3 of it. In that way, he’s the hinge.
Those are my answers, depending on which way you look at things. We could also throw in a mention of Lillard and Jerami Grant for potential comeback players with the potential to be pivotal. Hope all that helps! Great question!
Go ahead and expand on these thoughts in the comment section if you desire. If you want to submit your own question to the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag, you can send it to blazersub@gmail.com. We try to answer as many as we can!
