UFC Vegas 122 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 10, 2026), inside the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight contender Brendan Allen collides with Christian Leroy Duncan in a veteran vs. prospect matchup.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think
(that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 122 betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Vegas 122 odds here).
Last week’s recap: Boy oh boy, I was wrong for UFC 332, as Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov did not go over 1.5 Rounds because Kopylov knocked Gautier out — who the hell saw that coming?
Let’s keep rolling below:
Longtime UFC veteran Andre Fili collides with fellow Hawaiian-born Featherweight Kai Kamaka III in a matchup that has all the ingredients to steal the show.
And while I’m expecting an entertaining scrap, I’m not expecting either fighter to get finished.
This week, I’m locking in Fili vs. Kamaka to go the distance (-150).
Here’s why:
This fight has Fight of the Night written all over it.
Both Fili and Kamaka are experienced, well-rounded fighters who aren’t afraid to stand in the pocket and exchange. Neither is particularly interested in putting on a boring fight, and I expect 15 minutes of competitive action.
The good news? Neither guy is exactly a finishing machine.
Fili has scored just one finish since 2019 (watch that here), which is pretty remarkable considering how many times he’s stepped into the Octagon during that stretch. “Touchy” is a talented striker with plenty of weapons, but he’s become much more accustomed to winning fights on the judges’ scorecards than putting opponents away.
And Kamaka isn’t much different.
In fact, Kamaka has zero finishes during his UFC career.
Zero.
He’s a technical striker who relies on his volume, movement and ability to put together combinations rather than overwhelming opponents with one-punch knockout power. He’ll happily exchange for three rounds, but history suggests he’s unlikely to suddenly start knocking people unconscious.
That’s exactly what I want for this bet.
Fili has been around forever and has faced some of the best Featherweights in the world. He’s seen just about everything the division has to offer, and Kamaka doesn’t bring anything particularly unusual that should catch him completely off guard.
Meanwhile, Kamaka has shown he can remain competitive in prolonged striking battles, and I expect him to be more than willing to match Fili’s output.
Neither fighter has a significant grappling advantage that screams early submission, either.
Ultimately, this feels like one of those fights where both men land plenty of clean shots, have their moments and leave the judges with a split decision.
What could go wrong?
Well, this is still MMA.
Fili has been finished several times throughout his career, and his willingness to exchange can occasionally get him into trouble. Kamaka could also surprise everyone with a perfectly timed shot, while Fili certainly possesses enough power to hurt opponents when he connects cleanly.
And with both fighters capable of putting on an entertaining scrap, there’s always the possibility that things get a little too chaotic.
Still, neither man has consistently demonstrated the ability to finish UFC-level opposition, and their styles should produce a competitive, back-and-forth fight rather than a quick stoppage.
It might even win Fight of the Night.
But it’s going all three rounds.
Give me Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III to go the distance (-150) as this week’s “Weekend Lock.”
Andre Fili via TKO/KO/DQ: +250
Andre Fili via submission: +2000
Andre Fili via decision: +250
Kai Kamaka via TKO/KO/DQ: +600
Kai Kamaka via submission: +2200
Kai Kamaka via decision: +200
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