Happy Saturday one and all.
The Arizona Cardinals take on the Detroit Lions and Ryan Mathews of Pride of Detroit was kind enough to answer some questions for us ahead of the matchup.
Enjoy.
Right or wrong Arizona Cardinals fans were excited for the Drew Petzing era to end… what do the Lions fans think after four games?
Aside from the “Lions miss Ben Johnson” memes, Detroit’s offense has looked progressively more potent each week. Detroit is fifth in points per game (29.8), sixth in yards per game (389.3), and seventh in EPA/play (+0.10). Things were a bit uneven in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints, but the Lions capitalized
on a couple of turnovers, turning a short field into touchdowns. Detroit put up 31 points in three consecutive weeks, but last week against the Carolina Panthers, the Lions’ offense stalled out in the red zone a couple of times, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns—something that hadn’t been an issue prior to “Sunday Night Football;” Detroit had a 78.6% red zone conversion rate heading into Week 4, good for sixth in the NFL.
It does still feel like there’s another dimension of this offense to be unlocked, namely the explosive plays. It’s not necessarily for a lack of trying, as there’s been some failure to execute on those plays be it drops, errant throws, or breakdowns in pass protection. Once Detroit is able to break off some big runs or connect on some more of these deep shots, the offense will feel like it’s back to being one of the most lethal units in the NFL.
What on earth is going on with the Lions defense?
It’s a fool’s errand to make sense of why this defense has been as bad as it’s been through four weeks. The defensive line is legitimately good. Alim McNeill is first among interior defenders in pressures (20), Aidan Hutchinson is tied for first in pressures (29) among edge defenders, and Tyleik Williams has played really well against the run in his second year out of Ohio State.
But for as good as the defensive front has been, the back-seven has been a disaster. Detroit’s 109.3 net passing yards allowed per game when getting pressure is the worst in the NFL—the team ranked 31st, the Atlanta Falcons, allow just 65.3 net passing yards when getting pressure. Woof.
Last week’s performance really boiled down to the poor preparation for Carolina. The Panthers RPO’d the Lions into oblivion, with Bryce Young identifying the blitz and throwing the ball to the vacated part of the field. The cornerbacks are playing off coverage often, something that wasn’t a staple during the Aaron Glenn era, and it just doesn’t make sense given how much pressure their defensive front is generating (39.3%, ninth in the NFL). Some of that has to do with the personnel deficiencies—Detroit was in on the Joey Porter Jr. sweepstakes—but some of it is asking a veteran safety like Chuck Clark to pull off feats of athleticism he just can’t make happen at this point in his career. Dan Campbell is adamant there’s more tinkering that can be done to fix things, but consider me skeptical.
The Arizona Cardinals defense can’t stop a cold, so is this the week the Lions put up 40+ for the first time?
That sure would be nice! It would take Detroit to start hitting on those explosive plays that have yet to materialize reliably. Arizona’s run defense is second best in EPA/rush (-0.24) and they sport a better than average stuff rate at 17.0% (t-13th). The Lions need their rushing offense to be more consistent from kickoff in order to throw up 40+ points in the desert. It helps keep them on schedule and ahead of the sticks, which, at risk of sounding cliche, is when this offense really thrives. Especially with this defense looking the way it does, it’s important this offense put together long, sustained drives to wear down their opponent and their own defense off the field.
Do you feel like Dan Campbell is on the hot seat?
Not whatsoever. It’s really interesting to get that question from you, and to think of the way things look from the outside looking in. Detroit finished 15-2 just two seasons ago, backslid to a 9-8 record a year ago, and things aren’t off to the hottest of starts, but Campbell’s status with the team, that’s not even really a conversation until this team’s season plays out. It’s dependent upon their record, the playoffs, and a lot more. It would take a pretty abysmal finish to this season for Campbell’s job to be considered at risk.
The Cardinals are not covering the 4.5-point line, at least in my mind, but do the Lions do enough on defense to get under 53.5, or is this going to be a monster total?
Drew Petzing revenge game incoming?
There’s no reason to believe this Lions defense can prevent teams from putting up at least 21 points in a game, so yes, this game feels like it has a great chance at reaching the over. Add to the fact that Campbell has been incredibly vocal about the offense not accepting “mediocrity” this week, noting they have too much talent not to expect greatness from that unit, and you could see Detroit’s offense finally exploding for a huge offensive performance. That being said, with the way Detroit’s defense has looked in 14 of its past 16 quarters, this will likely be a one-score game when it’s all said and done.
