Last week I did a deeper dive on Missouri’s offense through four games. You can find it here.
This week we do the same for the defense. Here we go!
Congratulations! Not only does Missouri have the 9th-best offense according to SP+, but also the 11th-best defense! They’ve actually improved on the explosive-plays-allowed-aspect (but only slightly: 1.17 then versus 1.14 now) but have seen the biggest improvement to havoc rate: currently 19.4% and 18th in the country versus 13.5% and 90th in the country at last
year’s first bye week.
Do take a second to look at the points per scoring opportunity category, though. 5.08 points allowed every time the opponent crosses the 40-yard line. It ranks 118th. It’s not great.
BUT.
How many scoring opportunities has Missouri allowed so far this season? Do you want to take a guess?
Remember: it’s when an opponent takes a snap at or beyond the Missouri 40-yard line that registers as a scoring opportunity (or when the score from anywhere on the field).
The answer: 14.
That’s right: over 5 games Missouri has allowed opponents to cross the 40/score from outside the 40 a mere 14 times. Basically twice per game. That’s insanely good.
Also that won’t hold for the rest of the year. BUT THAT’ DOESN’T MATTER BECAUSE IT’S FUN TO SEE RIGHT NOW. Moving on!
Having a Top 20 rush defense is a good thing, IMO. In fact, looking at the EPA per rush, you can see that opponents actually take potential points off the board if/when they choose to run against the Tigers. And while the yards per carry before contact isn’t super great, check out the yards per carry after contact: 1.41, SECOND in the country! If a Mizzou defender gets their hands on you you’re typically going down right there. That’s elite.
Oh, look, just your standard-issue 3rd-best passing defense in the country, no big deal. Opposing quarterbacks average 4 yards per drop back which pairs with an EPA that says “hey, if you do that, you’re probably not going to score many points!”. Which, paired with the rushing EPA above, tells you that this defense does exactly what it says on the tin: don’t let offenses score. Also, if you smashed all the opposing quarterbacks so far into one guy he’s complete passes at a 48% clip while ripping 15.5 yards per successful pass. What is that telling you? Exactly what you’ve seen: the pass defense is great unless you can complete the pass and then it’s not great because they just converted a 1st-down and more. Ranking 89th in 20+ passes allowed is another good indicator or the leaky pass defense we’ve occasionally seen.
Another stat that tells the same story in a slightly different context: totally elite – regardless of down – unless they allow an explosive play that ruins all the fun.
And just like on offense this is the best stat in my humble opinion: Mizzou’s defense is god-tier in 3rd-downs, currently ranking 2nd. As I’ve said multiple times at this point, this is the secret sauce to why Mizzou has won in such dominating fashion, especially as SP+ sees it: they win on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. Yes, keeping offenses to low efficiency and forcing them to connect on unreliable explosive plays helps, as does the uptick in havoc. But having an offense that can’t be stopped and pairing it with a defense that doesn’t let you convert is one of the most reliable, consistent ways to play (and win!) football games.
I’m not sure why Eli Drinkwitz chose not to pair the 2nd-best 3rd-down offense with the 2nd-best 3rd-down defense until 2025 but, hey, I’m happy he finally did.
Conclusion
Heading into this season the Mizzou fan consensus was that this offense would be talented but need some time to gel and the defense would have enough returning talent and imported experience to be elite right out of the gate. And, so far, the offense is thriving in a run-first-second-and-third approach while the defense feels a little leakier than we would prefer but still an elite-level squad.
I was much more pessimistic than most about the outcome of this season given the hefty amount of questions on offense but, five games in, I’m willing to amend my stance slightly to an expectation of 9 or 10 wins.
But now we get into full-time SEC play. In a league that has shown that, truly, any team can rise up and defeat any other team on the slate.
If Mizzou gets through Alabama mostly intact as far as these numbers go then let your expectations fly freely to any lofty goal you want. We’ll reassess after Saturday.
