Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them.
Next up, a left-handed pitcher to pair with Garrett Crochet who has been mentioned in Red Sox-Royals trade rumors.
Who is he and where does he come from?
Cole Ragans is a left-handed pitcher from Gainesville, Florida. He threw 64 innings with the Texas Rangers between 2022 and 2023 before being shipped to Kansas City in exchange for fellow massive southpaw Aroldis Chapman. He’s started 57 games for the Royals in the 2.5 seasons since.
Is he any good?
If I were a GM, I would need to have someone on staff to say, “Jake, the pitching staff can’t be entirely gigantic lefties.” You could say I have a type. Cole Ragans is that type. Now, not all big lefties are created equally. Some, such as Payton Tolle, haven’t quite figured out the arsenal past the heater. Others, such as Garrett Crochet, have secondary pitches to complement the big fastball. The final evolution of the big lefty is the one who has a good fastball, a breaking pitch, and a devastating changeup. That’s Tarik Skubal.
Ragan’s fastball isn’t as overpowering as Skubal’s, but his changeup is nearly as good. He uses the pitch 24% of the time against righties, getting swinging strikes on almost 30% of his offerings. He does it with a 44% zone rate on the pitch, so even when it’s in hittable locations, opponents can’t touch it. It wasn’t just a small sample size fluke, either. Righties whiffed at a similar rate in 2024 when the pitch accounted for even more of his arsenal.
It’s not just the changeup, though. His fastball averages about 95 mph, reaching 99 mph at times. The shape isn’t an outlier, but it exhibits two-plane movement and misses bats thanks to velocity and command. He throws the pitch about 50% of the time for a strike rate in the high 60s to righties. Last season, the swinging strike rate was 18% against them, though his 2024 mark of 14% is probably a more realistic expectation. For reference, Skubal’s 2025 mark was the next best among qualifiers at 16.2%; Garrett Crochet came in third at 14.5%. It’s a dominant fastball.
But wait, there’s more. Ragans features a curveball and slider against righties as well. The curveball was used mostly in early counts, but he occasionally spiked one in two-strike counts as well. The strike rate was abysmal at about 50%, but nobody made hard contact against it either. It faded from his repertoire as the season progressed; I wouldn’t be surprised to see it disappear entirely in 2026. The slider, however, was great. It was almost exclusively a putaway pitch, and it did exactly that. The swinging strike rate was massive at 23% against righties. That number will also come down, like the fastball, but it’s a great offering nonetheless.
What about lefties, though? Opponents tend to stack their lineups with righties against Ragans, despite him having reverse platoon splits. His fastball doesn’t miss bats at nearly the same rate, and he doesn’t use the changeup that’s such a weapon against righties. His slider is good, but there isn’t enough in the arsenal for him to throw strikes with. Is there a world in which he can throw the changeup in the zone to same-handed hitters? The Red Sox don’t throw same-handed changeups, but it could be an option. He could add a sinker; it worked for Crochet. It also might not matter that much. There’s probably some selection bias at play here. He doesn’t see many lefties, so the ones who do remain in the lineup are probably the best of the best. The group of lefties that hit against Ragans posted a cumulative .760 OPS on the season, higher than the league mark of .719. That’s probably not sound statistical analysis, but you get the point.
So, why was his ERA so high? It’s pretty simple, actually. He was hurt. In May, he had two starts where he allowed four runs over five innings. Each start featured decreased velocity. He hit the IL after the second of the two poor outings, and when he returned, he gave up five runs in three innings, with his velocity still lacking. He again hit the IL, but pitched well in his final three starts when he returned in September. Chalk it up to a lost season in which he never got a chance to get his legs under him. Health is a concern, but he’s a pitcher, and health is a concern for every pitcher. He’s good.
TL;DR, just give me his 2025 stats
13 GS, 31.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 38.1% K%, 7.8% BB%, 2.50 FIP
Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
Ragans is under control for the next three seasons. He’s making about $5 million this season and about $8 million next season before his final year of arbitration. Like it or not (don’t like it, why would you like it?), the Red Sox are operating with salary constraints. The lineup still has holes, so if you want Alex Bregman back, you’ll have to live with an inexpensive starting pitcher. The Twins don’t seem motivated to move Joe Ryan, so Cole Ragans is at the top of that list.
Also, he’s awesome? He struck out 100 hitters in 60 innings. What team would that not be a good fit for?
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
Is he too similar to Garrett Crochet? I know that sounds crazy because Crochet is a top-five pitcher in the world, but does having two lefties with similar arm slots pitching on back-to-back days help an opposing offense? My gut says probably not, but maybe there’s something to it. I’m not sure I know how to code well enough to research that, but I might try. Let me get back to you. Or don’t. As I said, he’s a good fit for every team, but the template provides this section, and I’m paid by the word, so that’s what I came up with.
What would it take to get him?
There are rumors that the Royals are interested in Jarren Duran. Pitching is expensive, and I think there would probably be some prospects changing hands as well, but I’m terrible at estimating these things. Go on Twitter and find one of the 100,000 mock trades that have been posted that will also probably be wrong.
Show me a cool highlight.
Here he is striking out 12 batters in 2024, a career high. In 2025, he struck out double-digit batters in five of his 13 starts.
Smash or Pass?
Last year, I sat here and compared myself to a cartoon wolf with its eyes bursting out of its head at the thought of trading for Garrett Crochet. The comment section — that’s right, you guys are getting held accountable — mostly pooh-poohed the idea. If it weren’t for the other lefty with an out-of-this-world changeup in Tarik Skubal, he would have won the American League Cy Young. This year, Cole Ragans trade rumors have me levitating off the ground and drifting toward the metaphorical irresistible pie on the windowsill. Roster construction aside, this is a guy you want on your team. SMASH.
