The Thunder are frauds!
That’s what r/nba and the talking heads are having you believe, and it’s not hard to see why following a 6-6 stretch.
Still, the OKC discourse has swung too far in the opposite direction. Remember, they were only one of two teams (along with the 73-win Warriors) to ever start a season 25-1, so the talk about breaking the all-time wins record was well earned. That’s obviously out the window now, and some old demons have fuelled their recent “struggles.”
So, how worried should
we actually be about OKC?
Let’s find out.
Is OKC “cooked”?
Since that fateful first loss to the Spurs, the Thunder’s net rating is “just” +4.9, good for sixth league-wide over that span. Impressively, they’ve still been 4th on defense (109.6 DRTG) even while opponents have shot 38.5% from three, which is the 5th highest rate during that stretch. OKC’s defensive rebound percentage has also dipped to just 69.4% in the past month (20th) after it was 73.3% (5th) during their scorching 25-1 run, and this will be a stat to monitor given that it’s the only area they might be mediocre in defensively. Still, it’s worth noting that Isaiah Hartenstein has missed over half their games during this recent “slump,” and the fact that the Thunder have still been top 5 in DRTG shows that they have a legitimate argument as the greatest defense in history.
The offense, however, is another story. OKC is just 18th in ORTG over the past month (114.4) and has made just 32.1% of their threes (27th) after starting the year converting at a 37.9% rate (5th). The Thunder’s free-throw rate has also dipped from 23.9% (7th highest) during their 25-1 run to 21.1% (14th) in their recent run. That might not seem like a big difference, but it’s come almost entirely at the expense of SGA.
In his first 23 games, the reigning MVP averaged 10.2 free throw attempts a game, which dipped all the way down to 6.5 attempts over his next 13 matches. That latter number does not include the 28 free throws he’s shot over his last two games, and a downturn in free throws hasn’t been a league-wide trend, either: neither Luka nor Deni (the two players who lead the league in free throw attempts) has seen a dip in their attempts, so I’m inclined to believe that Shai will get back to his usual numbers, too.
Moreover, it’s quite evident that a big part of OKC’s recent skid is mental. We’ve reached the dog days of the season where even the best teams are finding it difficult to stay fully motivated. Dropping three demoralizing games to the Spurs surely also made the Thunder realize that the all-time wins record is out of reach, and it’s understandable if they lost some hunger as a result.
On top of that, reintegrating JDub into the lineup has hurt more than it’s helped. Not because he’s a bad player, but rather his return has disrupted the flow OKC had to start the season, and they’ve needed to carve out 15 extra shots to a player who’s still working his way back from an injury that prevented him from dribbling and shooting for four months.
If anything, I actually feel better about the Thunder after digging through these numbers. Even if their own 3-point shooting doesn’t return to elite levels, that should be offset by JDub getting back up to speed and Shai’s whistle normalizing. Defensively, OKC could get even better (if that’s even possible) once Hartenstein returns and opponents cool off from three, and they’ll rediscover some of their lost motivation as the playoffs get closer.
All these factors indicate that OKC will be just fine, and there shouldn’t be any doubt that they’re still the team to beat.
Are the Celtics the new “Zombie Heat”?
The calendar has flipped to 2026, and Boston remains elite.
If anyone predicted that, they must’ve studied at LeBron’s School of Deception.
Currently sporting a +7.2 net rating (4th) on the back of the second-best offense (123.2) and 16th-ranked defense (116.0), the Celtics are somehow on pace to win over 50 games without Jayson Tatum. Offensively, they’ve played the same as always, by limiting their turnover rate (12.3%, 2nd league-wide) and not caring about drawing fouls: the Celtics are once again dead last in free-throw rate at 16.9%. Unsurprisingly, Boston has continued bombing away from three, with 43.9% of their attempts coming from deep, good for the third-highest rate in the league.
One major change, though, is the increase in their offensive rebounding. The Celtics’ 32% ORB is 5th league-wide and a big boost from the 27.6% rate they had last year. Swapping out floor spacing bigs in Porzingis and Horford for a rim-runner like Neemias Queta will do that for any team, and he’s been the biggest reason why Boston now ranks third in second-chance points (17.7 per game), an area where they’ve been mediocre throughout the Brown/Tatum era.
Queta has great positioning instincts and fluidity (especially for a 7-footer), which he uses to put himself in the best spots to grab boards and finish in one motion. He showcased that playing against Minnesota this year by finishing with 18 rebounds against Rudy Gobert, who was called for a goaltend on the play below.
Queta isn’t just a finisher, either. He’s a good passer for a big and often sets up teammates for open looks. Queta is certainly no Jokic, but being able to make that extra pass makes his teammates’ lives much easier.
Still, none of that would matter if Brown wasn’t playing at an MVP level. The athletic wing seemingly breaks through his ceiling every year, and this current season is the best example of that. Brown is currently making 48% of all his mid-rangers, and even more specifically, a staggering 52% between 16 feet and the three-point line. That is prime Chris Paul/DeMar DeRozan levels of mid-range wizardry, and the volume he’s doing this on might be the most important stat of all: Brown is attempting 55% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 98th percentile among all wings. His previous career high was 41% set last year, and before then, he’d never attempted more than 40% of his shots from that area.
The eye test doesn’t indicate that Brown’s added a plethora of moves to his bag. Rather, he’s simply become an elite shotmaker who uses athleticism and strength to get to his favorite spots.
While there’s no doubt that Brown’s turned himself into one of the best midrange shooters in the league, I’m still not sure if he can continue converting at all-time levels — especially when we’re operating with less than half a season of data. On a team level, the Celtics are also shooting way above expected on threes. It isn’t surprising to see Boston make 37.3% (9th best) of their triples, but attempting the fewest from the corner (7.2%) raises some eyebrows. Simply put, Mazzulla’s squad has taken the most difficult threes in the league and still made them at an elite rate. There’s no doubt that the Celtics have some of the best shooting talent in the league, but it’s yet to be seen if they can continue converting on over 37% while barely taking any from the corners.
Even if some regression hits, Boston at the very least will remain a top-10 offense with an average defense. That’s a surefire playoff team in the East, and the Pistons and Knicks are the only teams I would confidently pick over them in a postseason matchup. If Brown and the team continue their torrid shooting and Tatum returns (even operating at 75%), the Celtics could very well vault themselves back into that top tier again.
That’s a lot of ifs based on small sample sizes, but for a “gap” year, this season is already a resounding success.
65-game rule, be gone!
I used to be a big proponent of the 65-game rule, but it’s clear that it has worn out its welcome. That’s not because I believe Jokic should win MVP over Shai while playing 15 fewer games, but rather that the voters wouldn’t have voted that way even if they had the option to: Bill Walton in 1977-78 is the only player in history to win the award while playing fewer than 65 games over an 82-game season.
Looking through history, the 65-game rule has a bigger impact on awards such as DPOY. There have been three players in history who’ve won DPOY playing less than 65 games in an 82-game season, and they’ve all come within the last dozen years: Kawhi Leonard in 2014-15 (64), Rudy Gobert in 2017-18 (56), and Jaren Jackson Jr. in 2022-23 (63). Given how much more impactful Wemby is defensively than every other player in the league, it’ll be blasphemous to award DPOY to a Chet or Gobert because they played 72 games to Wemby’s 63.
All-NBA teams will be impacted as well. Since 2013-14, there have only been 18 All-NBA players who appeared in fewer than 65 games — an average of 2.25 players over 8 eligible seasons when accounting for the COVID-shortened campaigns. Interestingly, 9 of those players are from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, right before the rule was implemented.
Moreover, Giannis in 2022-23 and CP3 in 2013-14 are the only two players who made it onto the First Team, and they still played in 63 and 62 games, respectively. In other words, voters have always taken games played into account, and most seem to have set 65 games as an unofficial cut-off anyway, outside of exceptional circumstances.
Well, there is no better time to allow those exceptions than this season. It just doesn’t make sense for Shai to potentially be the only top 5 player across every All-NBA squad, let alone just the first team. Jokic, Giannis, Luka and Wemby might not deserve to make the first team if they all play 63 games, but they sure deserve to be on the third team at the very least, over the likes of an 80-game appearance from Deni Avdjia (no offense, Deni).
More importantly, these awards hold monetary value to players. We’ve already seen Tyrese Haliburton rush back from an injury two years ago to be eligible for his supermax, and it took him a full year before looking like himself again. Yes, it incentivized a star like Haliburton to play, but I’d argue that watching any player fight through an injury hurts the product more than it helps.
It’s time for Adam Silver to get rid of this archaic rule and sever the tie between contractual bonuses and individual awards.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on how the Trae Young trade could impact the Spurs! He does a great job of breaking down the potential implications of Atlanta’s unprotected picks that are owned by San Antonio.
I hope everyone’s having a great start to 2026!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
