Many headlines coming into this game will focus on Pat Fitzgerald facing his alma mater, and the team that he coached for 17 years, and Aidan Chiles’ return to Spartan Stadium. The Spartan players must be aware of the circumstances surrounding Fitzgerald’s departure from East Lansing, but Fitz seems highly unlikely to make this a point with his team. He’s going to focus on moving the Spartans past four losses in a row and getting prepared to face the Wildcats, including how to defend Chiles, with a depleted
defense.
Join the conversation!
Sign up for a user account and get:
- Improved notifications system!
- Fewer ads
- Create community posts
- Comment on articles, community posts
- Rec comments, community posts
Download the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.
Many of us may have put this game in the win column in our pre-season predictions but now, with MSU and Northwestern headed in opposite directions, it’s going to be a tall task for the Spartans to defend their home field.
So, what will actually determine the outcome in Saturday’s game (Noon ET, Peacock)? Here at TOC, we think it breaks down to three categories.
MSU’s extremely thin margin for error
A team that, despite some disappointing results elsewhere, has largely avoided penalties before “exploding” for nine flags against Illinois – easily a season high. A struggling team, with an injury-depleted defense and feature player on offense (Cam Edwards) out for the season, can’t make an already difficult task even harder with continued mistakes.
A few more impactful plays and favorable bounces could also help. The Spartans finally got a key turnover, a fourth down stop (after what should have been a perfectly-executed onside kick), and recovered one of their own fumbles to save a drive against Illinois. All of these plays led to touchdowns.
However, MSU went another game without a sack and had at least one chance to recover an Illinois fumble. It looked like an MSU player had secured the ball with his hand and . . . crotch but officials allowed the play continue and Illinois retained possession. The Spartans also lost a fumble of their own, which ended a promising drive coming out of halftime.
Getting a few more plays to go their way, winning the turnover battle 2-0, and generating at least one sack that ends a Northwestern drive could go a long way towards ending the losing streak.
Offense: Schematic sustainability and preventing a slow start
Michigan State also can’t fall behind early. Against Illinois, MSU had six plays in the first 20 minutes of game time. That’s it. Two three-and-outs while Illinois scored on their first three drives to go up 17-0. Yes, MSU recovered and had a chance to win the game against the Illini but this wasn’t the case a week earlier at Wisconsin. Northwestern appears to be more on par with Wisconsin than Illinois. Pulling off a rally against the Wildcat defense, which gave up 29 points at Indiana but has held every other opponent under 20, would likely be a tall task.
The comeback against Illinois featured several creative or gadget plays that found success, before the ill-fated two point try, but it’s tough to rely solely on these types of plays to win a game. Also, Northwestern’s disciplined defensive may be less likely to get sucked into the trickery.
Michigan State did have some success with direct snaps and running Patterson between the tackles against Illinois and may be able to replicate some of this against Northwestern. The Wildcat front is sound and, unlike some past Wildcat teams, not undersized by Big Ten standards. However, Northwestern lacks a massive interior lineman that demands double teams. Size-wise, the Spartan offensive line should not be overmatched. Executing an effective run-blocking scheme and keeping MSU in front of the chains are crucial keys to a win.
MSU’s continued response to adversity
Michigan State has lost four games in different ways: a mostly competitive loss to a top tier team (Notre Dame), laying an egg in a big opportunity (Nebraska), getting thoroughly dominated (Wisconsin), and heartbreak (Illinois). All while losing multiple players to injury. Throughout this sequence of games, and until the second half against Illinois, it seemed like the Spartans were like a boulder rolling downhill towards a cliff. Until they once again showed the impressive resolve we saw in the opener at Toledo and in South Bend.
How will this team will respond to a devastating loss on the last play of the game? The Spartans obviously can’t afford any sort of hangover.
Northwestern’s run-heavy offense, directed by Chip Kelly, and disciplined defense will test MSU. If the Wildcats, like Illinois, are able to punch first and hard against a thinned out MSU roster, will the Spartans be able to respond for a second week in a row against arguably a tougher opponent than they faced last week? Hopefully the Spartans can make a game of it from the beginning and we don’t need to find out.
