Electric, uber-athletic wings that shoot the ball at a high clip tend to be some of the most coveted types of players that NBA fans adore. Cameron Carr is one of those players who is easy to fall in love with at first sight because of how fun he is to watch and because of his tools. He’ll pop off the screen with his highlight reel dunks, some jaw-dropping weak-side help blocks, and when he gets hot from deep. However, the question still remains: how impactful does Cameron Carr project to be?
BIO: Cameron Carr
Team:
Baylor Bears Age: 21.6 on draft day Height: 6’5-6’6 Weight: ~190 lbs Wingspan: nearing 7’2 (reportedly) Stats: 18.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 2.4 TOV, 0.9 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 49/37/80 shooting splits.
Projected Role & Role Optimization
Cameron Carr, being 6’5 and someone who is generally assisted on his made baskets (56.7%), relative to his position, and someone whose main way of impacting basketball games on the offensive end comes from solely shot making, paired with the fact that he doesn’t offer much playmaking value in terms of assist volume and turnover efficiency, this pigeon-holes him into a role of being someone who is best used/maximized by playing off of the basketball. This is no slight towards Cameron Carr; there is value in players who play off of the ball, but I believe there is an additional question that needs to be asked regarding being put in this said off-ball role: Now that we know how a team can maximize him to the best of his ability, in what ways can he maximize himself in that role to bring back positive team value? Ideally, you like guys in this role who pop threes at a high rate, and luckily for Carr, he does just that. In the halfcourt, Cameron Carr has a 3pt attempt rate of 53.4%, which is very high, and he shoots it at a 38% clip. When the shot falls, he can be a lethal weapon for any NBA team. Another ability that Cameron Carr possesses is that he is able to drive hard (usually with the intent to yam it down on someone) and get fouled. He is a scorer at heart.
Warning! This player might not be impactful!
Now, I dug into this integration of 3PT volume, athleticism, FT rate, and lower assist rate (for role purposes) to see if it held any value in terms of players returning ++ value on the offensive end, and the results were actually rather underwhelming:
For NBA players who fit the query above, in college, it seems they found their success by becoming usage eaters and shot makers. There is not one wing on that list that brought back positive offensive value outside of being able to make shots and boost the team’s 3pt frequency. This begs yet another question, and probably the biggest of them all: WHAT DO THEY DO WHEN THE SHOT ISN’T FALLING?
If the shot isn’t falling, there’s a couple things you can do to still help out your team on offense, for me, it’s offensive rebounding, and then there is being able to pass the ball. Typically, guys who play off of the basketball in this play-finisher type role have a lower TOV%; unfortunately for Cameron Carr, that is not the case. Now, the TOV% can be minimized once he’s in a role where you limit his touches to primarily play-finishing responsibilities, but the TOV% can act as an indicator that shows he cannot add additional on-ball value in areas that push team connectivity.
Back to the other area where you can help out a team’s offense without shot making and playmaking, offensive rebounding. Because Carr arguably held most of Baylor’s shot usage and shot a significant number of threes, he did not participate in these possession-extending opportunities and ended with a poopy OReb% of only 2.3%. I do worry that he won’t bring a whole lot of oreb value at all just because he will be waiting on the perimeter for another scoring chance, but there could be promise because he is a really solid rebounder on the other end of the floor (17.6 DReb%). I believe there is still a question there on whether it can be fixed with coaching game planning or not, but his wing teammate Tounde Yessoufou, who he shared the floor with and also had a similar 3PA/100 at 9.6 (Carr 10.6 3PA/100), had an offensive rebounding percentage of 8.7%. One could interpret this as Carr did not try to grab offensive rebounds.
Defense:
There won’t be much from me to say here, but I have already highlighted one of Carr’s defensive traits, and that is defensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding is an act of defense because you are essentially ending an opponent’s possession, and Cameron Carr does that at a respectable rate for a wing. As far as defensive production in terms of disrupting plays, though Carr has a reported 7’2 wingspan, he did not nab a whole lot of steals (1.6 stl%). Anything under a STL% of 2% I categorize as a potentially suboptimal defender. One example we can look to is the recently drafted Cedric Coward. Coward was a draft combine darling because of his comparable measurements to Carr’s at 6’5 with a 7’2 wingspan. Despite Coward having a stl% below 2% (1.6, same as Carr’s) he was still projected to be a potential terror on that end. However, that hasn’t entirely been the case in year 1:
As far as disruption goes and breaking up plays, Coward hasn’t really been a factor in that end. He hasn’t forced turnovers, and the steals have been massively underwhelming for a guy at his size. Fortunately, he has the length to contest shots; now, contest data can be very noisy, but Coward has had a positive impact on shots, and the team is better on the defensive glass when he is on the floor.
I tend to lean towards production over tools, especially when a prospect is able to go to the bar and grab a couple of drinks. Though I think Carr can be a decent weak-side help rim protector because he has shown that he can block shots (3.9 blk%), and also because he is an athletic freak of nature.
Conclusion:
I will likely have Cameron Carr towards the end of the first round because I do not believe that his offensive process contributes to winning basketball, and because I believe his defensive production is lacking at his age, despite the tools that he possesses. I believe this is your typical Kelly Oubre/Ben McLemore-esque NBA journeyman who can only provide positive offensive value when playing off of heliocentric stars (and I’m out on that style of play altogether).
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS I USED TO EVALUATE CAMERON CARR (PLEASE READ):
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