Coming off a big 17-14 victory against the UCLA Bruins, the 2-2 Northwestern Wildcats will play their final regular-season non-conference game, hosting the 3-1 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (ULM) at Martin Stadium. The ‘Cats will look to emerge victorious over a struggling Warhawk football program and add to their win tally before heading to University Park for a tough Big Ten matchup against No. 7 Penn State.
Favored by 10.5 points, this is a game that David Braun and Northwestern definitely expect to
win. Here are three keys to a victory on Saturday:
Win in the trenches
So far this season, outgaining their opponent has been a major indicator of success for the Wildcats. In three of Northwestern’s four games this season, the ‘Cats have outrushed their opponent (games versus Western Illinois, Oregon, and UCLA). In two of these three games (Western Illinois and UCLA), the ‘Cats outrushed their opponent by over 60 yards and secured their two victories of the season. Although the ‘Cats lost 34-14 against Oregon, the game was truly a tale of two halves. At the end of the first half, Northwestern trailed 17-0 after getting outrushed 69-to-37 by the Ducks. However, in the second half, Northwestern was outscored 17-14, outrushing the No. 2 team in the country 141 to 109. In other words, it’s not an overstatement to say that when Northwestern focuses offensively on its explosive, Caleb Komolafe-led rushing attack, it can be competitive in any game.
On Saturday, the ‘Cats face a ULM team with a very similar offensive identity. In fact, the Warhawks’ rushing attack ranks 22nd in the nation through four games, at 217.8 yards per game. Just like the Wildcats, the Warhawks win football games in the trenches, with a physical offensive line that paves the way for their powerful rushing attack.
Considering Northwestern’s success when outrushing its opponents, and the specific importance of shutting down a ULM running game that has powered the Warhawks to a 3-1 record, it will be key, once again, for the Wildcats to outrush their opponent on Saturday and win the battle in the trenches.
Finish drives
Even though Northwestern has oftentimes struggled to move the ball in general, it’s also been a problem to finish the drives that do manage to get pieced together. In each of their last two games, the ‘Cats have left points on the board. They failed to score during two drives inside Oregon’s 35-yard line in their game against the Ducks, and missed out on two red zone touchdowns against the Bruins, settling instead for two short field goals—one of which was blocked.
Especially when playing games as a heavy favorite against mid-major schools like ULM, it is extremely crucial to finish drives and not give an opponent any minor momentum towards victory. If the Wildcats continue to struggle to capitalize on their opportunities deep inside opponent territory, it could cost them games they should win, like their matchup Saturday against the Warhawks.
Make Aidan Armenta Beat You
As is often the case with lower-tier mid-major schools, ULM’s quarterback Aidan Armenta does not have the flashy, multi-star reputation that UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava has. Armenta, a graduate of La Cueva High School in Albuquerque, New Mexico, was a zero-star recruit coming out of high school. As a redshirt junior transfer, Armenta has started twelve games for the Warhawks over the last two seasons, sporting a 5-7 record.
ULM is a program that has traditionally relied on its run game, and it has been no different this year with Armenta under center. So far this season, Armenta has just 76 passing attempts, almost half the number of the Warhawks’ 150 rushing attempts. Furthermore, in Armenta’s twelve games as a starter, he has only been asked to throw more than 25 passes three times, and has never thrown for more than 200 yards in a single game. The ULM quarterback is a game manager, but has yet to prove that he can be a game-winner.
So, while I don’t mean to be down on Armenta, I think that it would be smart for Northwestern defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle to crack down on ULM’s run game and force the ball into Armenta’s hands. If the ‘Cats do this, I think the Warhawks will struggle Saturday on the lakefront.
