Vanderbilt is coming off their second and final bye week of the regular season, so we have to throw it back to November 8th for the last time the Commodores took the field. Their opponent that day was
Auburn, who had fired Hugh Freeze the previous Sunday after losing to Kentucky 10-3. Auburn had not allowed more than 24 points to any team they had played but had only scored more than 24 against Baylor, Ball State, South Alabama, and Arkansas.
I mentioned in the predictions that I thought the talent of Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr could be a problem if Auburn’s offense at all approached an intelligent gameplan. Down to 1 playcaller from 3, it seemed inevitable to me. I predicted 17 points. Auburn dropped 38.
The good news is that Diego Pavia, Eli Stowers, and the buzzsaw that is Vanderbilt’s offense dropped 45, including the game-winning drive in overtime. Let’s dive into everything else that happened on the way there.
Lessons We Know Well
Diego Pavia was 25 of 33 for 37 yards with 3 TDs through the air. He also carried the ball 18 times for 112 yards and another TD. It all graded out to a 95.7 Total QBR against a defense that had not yet allowed more than 24 points on the season. Yes, Total QBR does take quality of opposition. He made a few really impressive throws, including one rolling to his left where he found Tre Richardson down the sideline for 43 yards. My only concern is that he is keeping the ball on some plays were it the better read appears to be giving the ball up. My concern is that the pressing to be the hero is what led to the opening drive fumble against Texas and the redzone fumble against Alabama. He is an elite playmaker, but he still cannot put too much on himself. There is plenty of talent around him.
One of the most important other talents is Eli Stowers. The TE was moderately effective all season. Typical games were something like 4 catches for 50 yards. He would show up in important moments when Pavia really needed to find someone for a 3rd or 4th down conversion or to break a stretch of bad plays. The last 2 weeks have been Stowers at his best and most dominant. He had catches for 146 yards and 2 TDs against Texas then followed that up with 12 catches for 122 yards against Auburn. Time after time when the team needed a 3rd down conversion or to get a drive started the right way, the man tasked with catching the pass was Stowers. He can run routes over the middle with no concern for the expected impact, or he can break free on the edges. It makes him very tough to align for and cover with his versatility. With the season on the line, expect Pavia to keep looking for him and for Stowers to keep making plays.
The offensive line had a bit of a bounce back performance against Auburn. They are a very good front 7 but are probably a slight step down from Missouri and Texas. The running game was not at full speed as the running backs combined for 57 yards on 17 carries. A bit of that can be left to the RB carries often coming in short yardage or goal to go situations where there is a limit to how many yards can be gained by a play. The key was Auburn only having 1 sack and 5 TFLs. The OL had no control over 1 TFL when an attempt to have Eli Stowers throw a double pass was tackled behind the line.
Across the lines, the run defense had a little bit of a rough day. Most of Ashton Daniels’s 89 yards from 18 carries came on scrambles, but he had a few designed runs that found success. Jeremiah Cobb was able to rip off 115 yards on only16 carries with a long of 23. Granted, the defense quickly adjusted to be more worried about Daniels throwing to Coleman and Singleton or keeping the ball than the straight running game. This has not been the norm, so I do not think it warrants a big change in how we think of the run defense.
Brock Taylor. 1 for 1. Just saying.
Vanderbilt is averaging 6.7 penalties (90th) for 61.7 penalty yards (105th). They committed only 3 for 21 against Auburn, technically. You should add in another 3 for 45ish due to offsetting penalties. Both teams had unsportsmanlike conduct fouls assessed during the coin toss when Vanderbilt, who normally meets their captains back at the numbers decided to press out to the hashmarks. Auburn responded, and the tone for the game was set. There were also an offsetting OPI/DPI calls and an offsetting pair of unnecessary roughness calls. It was a better game for discipline, but they cannot let emotions run out of control. They win with emotion and energy. It must be focused in the correct way to avoid dumb, costly penalties.
Lessons We Are Learning
This topic almost slid up a category, but it needs a slight adjustment. Teams are starting to force the running game wide. Granted, as has been said ad nauseum, the last 3 opponents all had high end defensive fronts, Vanderbilt’s opponents may have the closest thing to a “blueprint” to stop the run against Vanderbilt as they can find. Simply put, it means clogging the middle and forcing runs to the edges. OC Tim Beck has gone away from the edge hitters in jet sweeps a bit. However, he did sprinkle in some more speed option looks where Pavia and a back are hitting the edge with pace, including a triple option with the shovel pass on a third down. AJ Newberry also had a couple runs to the edge from the backfield. Still, I think if teams want to stack it inside then the passing game opens up even more since Pavia should have room to scramble to the outside where he can either run or throw. We shall see if the combined powers of the OL and RBs can get more traction between the tackles against Kentucky who allows only 3.53 yards per carry (29th) and 128.8 yards per game (39th).
The defense followed up a horrible game against Texas by giving up 563 yards to Auburn. That was 200 more yards than their average. Still, watching it back did not feel horrible. Auburn did a very good job of attacking all areas of the defense. And, again, Coleman was just bailing everything out. The tackling was better. Coverage was not just running away in fear. They need to show up now.
The DL only had 0.5 of the 5 TFLs, but they did a good job of turning 4-man rushes into pressure. Their struggle, mostly in the first half, was getting middle pressure then letting. They got into the backfield and gave up scrambles to the edge. I feel llike I excusing a lot again. Oops.
Vanderbilt is not wilting in the moment. Yes, they dropped the games to Alabama and Texas then underachieved a bit against Auburn, but they stared OT down and executed. A certain acronym has never applied less.
Lessons for Further Study
What changes with the bye week? The schemes shifted a bit as I mentioned above. It will be interesting to see how they come out of the bye week. It may depend on what they feel is necessary to show before next Saturday.Vanderbilt needs style points to go with the win based on how the rest of the college football world is going. Kentucky is a team they can do that against with the right approach. The seniors deserve to go out with a big bang, too.
