The Basics
Team: Oregon State Beavers
Location: Corvallis, Oregon
Enrollment: 31,253
Head Coach: Trent Bray (5-13)
Record: 0-6
Wins: N/A
Losses: Cal, Fresno State, Texas Tech, Oregon, Houston, App State
Transfer portal
rank: 60th (1 4-star, 13 3-stars)
After picking up their first ACC win of the season, the Deacs are back on the road for a non-conference game against the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State is currently 0-6, making them one of 3 teams in FBS without a win (UMass, Sam Houston) and the only team in the nation with 6 losses. Obviously, being winless 6 games into the season is very bad, but it should be noted that two of those losses were on the road against top 10 teams (at #3 Oregon, at #9 Texas Tech), one was a 3-point OT loss to 4-1 Houston, and 1 was a 4-point loss on the road at App State last weekend. I don’t think Oregon State is going to win many games this season, but I also think they aren’t as bad as their 0-6 record makes them seem.
Offense
Points per game: 18.3 (123rd)
Yards per game: 353.8 (95th)
Run/pass split: 45/55
Rush yards per game: 94.5 (128th)
Pass yards per game: 259.3 (46th)
3rd down conversions: 41% (62nd)
Sacks allowed per game: 1.33 (39th)
Turnovers per game: 1.7 (115th)
On the offensive side, the Beavers are led by Maalik Murphy, a player Wake Forest fans should be very familiar with. It was not that long ago that Murphy led the Duke Blue Devils to a road win over the Deacs with a walkoff 39-yard TD pass as time expired to beat the Deacs in the final game of the 2024 season. That pass set the Duke single season record for touchdown passes in a season at 26.
Murphy has been pretty solid so far this season—he is completing nearly 60% of his passes and is currently 8th in the nation in passing yards and 30th in passing yards per game. His averages would be even better if not for an outlier disaster of a game against Oregon, where he completed just 5 of his 18 passes for a whopping 68 yards. Murphy still has an issue with turnovers—after leading the ACC in interceptions a season ago, he has already thrown 7 picks in 6 games. From what I have read about the Beavers, he makes a lot of risky throws and is lucky to have only been picked off 7 times. With the way the Wake Forest DBs played last game, they should absolutely be able to take advantage of that and force a couple of turnovers.
After a very brief look at some Oregon State games, it seems like the Beavers love to get Murphy outside of the pocket on play action boots and rollouts so he can use his mobility to buy time and find open receivers.
Outside of that, the offense has a lot of RPO slants, quick outs, and drags routes. Murphy’s favorite receiver is by far and away Trent Walker, who has 43 catches (20+ more than any other receiver) for 584 yards this season. Walker is currently 8th in the nation in receiving yards per game, but he has not yet caught a touchdown pass. He caught 13 passes for 179 yards in Oregon State’s loss to App State last weekend. About 1 out of every 3 of Murphy’s completions are to Walker, so Wake Forest will definitely want to be aware of where he is on every single play.
The reason the Beavers are relying on the pass so much this season is because the run game has been pretty abysmal. Anthony Hankerson, who ran for 1,082 yards and 15 touchdowns for Oregon State last season, has just 366 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 107 carries halfway through the season. As a team, the Beavers are one of the worst running teams in the nation, averaging just 3.1 yards per rush (128th out of 136 teams) and 1 rushing touchdown per game (116th). The Wake Forest defense has been pretty good against the run so far this season, so I’m not expecting Oregon State to line up and pound them for a bunch of yards on the ground. If Wake can contain Walker in the passing game, they should have no trouble slowing down the Oregon State offense.
On paper, the Oregon State defense looks pretty bad, but the stats are skewed due to their schedule. If we remove the 2 road games against Top 10 teams where the Beavers gave up 86 points and 1,186 total yards to Texas Tech and Oregon, then OSU is giving up 31 points and 345 yards per game. That is not a great defense by any stretch, but it no longer looks like one of the worst in the nation. Every team is obviously going to look better if you remove all their bad games, but comparing the Wake Forest offense to two future playoff teams doesn’t really seem very helpful either.
The Beavers gave up 280 rushing yards to Oregon but have held every other team they have played to under 200 yards. In their past 2 games against Houston and App State, Oregon State has only given up 218 total rushing yards on 66 carries (3.3 ypc), so it seems like they are improving as the season progresses. The Beavers are led by LB Dexter Foster, who is currently 46th in the nation with 8.0 tackles per game. Wake has been pretty bad on “passing downs” this season, so Oregon State’s ability to stop the run and keep the Deacs behind the sticks will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Whether or not Demond Claiborne, who missed the whole second half against Virginia Tech, plays in the game will probably have a lot more to do with Wake’s ability to run the ball than the Oregon State defense.
The Beavers also currently have the 12th worst pass defense in the nation at 271 passing yards allowed per game, and they give up 2.3 passing touchdowns per game (128th). Based on some quick scouting, it looks like Oregon State plays a lot of press coverage on the outsides, which means Wake should have plenty of opportunities to hit deep balls to Mays, Berkhalter, or Racanelli.
The intermediate passing game really hasn’t worked for Wake all season, so I would love for the Deacs to try to take plenty of shots against the Beaver defense this weekend.
It might just be the nervous fan in me, but this feels like a classic trap game. The Deacs are riding high after beating Virginia Tech on the road, and Oregon State has yet to win a game this season. Hopefully the Deacs do not overlook that 0-6 record, because the Beavers aren’t as bad as it makes them look, and they will have a true home advantage after the Deacs have to travel 2,000+ miles to Corvallis. There is a huge difference between going into the bye week at 4-2 with back-to-back road wins vs 3-3 and having just given Oregon State their first win of the season. Wake is the better team in this game, so hopefully they take care of business.
