Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight contenders Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida will throw down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates for UFC 321.
Putting this matchup on this card feels like a middle finger towards “Drago.” Volkov very clearly defeated Ciryl Gane in his last bout in a gritty performance that really proved his growth as a fighter, but the incompetent judges stole away the best win of his career. UFC CEO Dana White
promised to take care of him afterwards, which apparently means a difficult style match up against the division’s most active takedown artist on the very card Gane receives his undeserved title shot.
Rude.
As for Almeida, he’s the divisional dark horse. He’s won eight of his nine bouts inside the Octagon, surging into the Top Five and setting himself up for a title eliminator bout here. Fans harp on his one boring decision win over Derrick Lewis, but we are talking about a man with 22 finishes in 23 fights — he’s no lay-and-pray artist.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Volkov vs. Almeida Betting Odds
- Alexander Volkov victory: +180
- Alexander Volkov via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Alexander Volkov via submission: TBD
- Alexander Volkov via decision: TBD
- Jailton Almeida victory: -218
- Jailton Almeida via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Jailton Almeida via submission: TBD
- Jailton Almeida via decision: TBD
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Volkov Wins
Volkov is an excellent kickboxer who breaks down his opposition with continual punishment. He does great work using snapping kicks up the middle to set up his high kicks, and Volkov can actually combination punch better than the average tall striker.
This bout is very obviously a test of Volkov’s takedown defense, which historically has been an issue for the Russian veteran. It’s been a while since Volkov lost a fight due to being held down, however, as it hasn’t happened since his 2020 main event bout versus Curtis Blaydes. Hopefully, he’s improved his defensive wrestling in the five years since.
There is a simple — which does not equate to easy — way to avoid Almeida’s takedowns: avoid the fence like the plague. Almeida’s entire takedown game is based on the idea of using his double leg to push opponents to the cage, where he’s really hard to stop. Almeida is plenty willing to shoot in the center of the cage with the intent of pushing his opponents all the way to the fence then finishing the takedown.
Therefore, Volkov has to press Almeida’s back to the cage, giving himself plenty of room to sprawl. When he is sprawling, Volkov has to cut an angle and prevent Almeida from pushing him indefinitely. In an prolonged exchange on the feet, Volkov has a huge advantage, so shutting down the shot is really his primary key to victory.
How Almeida Wins
Almeida is theoretically a smaller, potentially undersized Heavyweight yet has absolutely no issue muscling around much bigger men. His takedowns are fairly simple yet overwhelming, and he’s a genuine ace from top position with his control and submissions. In addition, he actually threw punches in his last bout, which was an interesting development!
For Almeida, this is a much simpler task, because his game plan is always the same. He’s going to try to run down Volkov with sprinting double leg, and his success or failure likely hinges on the outcome of his early takedowns. For that reason, it would be nice to see Almeida fire at least a few big hooks before diving at the legs. Almeida has a speed edge and hits hard — he should be able to earn Volkov’s respect at least a bit on the feet.
Once on the mat, Almeida has to focus on passing guard. Volkov is actually pretty good at avoiding damage and preventing his opponents from doing much in top position, but Almeida can nullify his bottom game by passing by the legs. If he’s stuck in closed guard, maybe a couple elbows would motivate Volkov to open up?
Volkov vs. Almeida Prediction
I’m pretty on board the Almeida hype train. He matches up really well with all of the top contenders and might even be the biggest threat to Aspinall himself. He’s far from a perfect fighter, certainly, but Heavyweight is far from a perfect division. Being able to explosively wrestle hard for multiple rounds is a very unusual trait, and it seems perfect for frustrating the kickboxer here.
I would be more optimistic about Volkov’s upset chances over five rounds, but with just 15 minutes to work, he’s going to spend a high percentage of the fight on his back.
