The North Carolina Tar Heels made history on Tuesday, finishing a perfect 18-0 at home this season. Those 18 home wins are the most in 116 seasons of Carolina basketball — but the job is far from over. The last game of the ACC schedule is UNC’s annual trip to Durham.
Duke is looking to avenge their only conference loss of the season, and Carolina wants to keep the momentum up with a fifth-straight win.
Here are a few key factors for Saturday night’s matchup in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Avoid Foul Trouble
On Tuesday night, Henri Veesaar picked up two early fouls. He adjusted, and his third foul was not called until halfway through the second half. Yes, he did eventually foul out, but Veesaar still played 29 minutes against a physical Clemson frontcourt. Working under the assumption that Caleb Wilson will not play Saturday night, the challenge remains the same for Veesaar and Jarin Stevenson.
Duke operates a methodical, inside-out offense built around the frontcourt duo of Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II. The Blue Devils rank 6th nationally in near-proximity attempts and average 40 rebounds a game.
A key to victory on February 7 was Carolina’s discipline. The Tar Heels committed only seven fouls, with just one whistle coming in the second half. Veesaar and Stevenson will likely have to log at least 32 minutes each in Saturday’s game, and they must stay out of foul trouble to do so.
Rebounding Battle and Second-Chance Opportunities
As mentioned previously, the Blue Devils average 40 rebounds a game. The Tar Heels are not far behind with 38 a game.
The difference is the rebounding margin. Duke ranks sixth in the nation with a 10.37 rebounding margin and is one of only seven schools with an edge in double digits. Carolina is above water at +4.20, but ranks 65th nationally in that metric. This was another area in which UNC flipped the script on Duke last month. The Tar Heels won the battle on the boards, 38-35, in February. However, the second-chance points advantage was heavily tilted in favor of the Blue Devils, 17-4.
Controlling the glass, particularly offensive rebounds for extra chances, is critical for Carolina. This responsibility falls mainly on the frontcourt, but support from the guards can be the difference. Seth Trimble has to be a box score stuffer for Carolina. This does not mean grabbing the long rebound, but rather adding support high in the lane.
A team commitment to rebounding is an absolute necessity Saturday night.
Start on Time
The Tar Heels were down 12 at the half against the Blue Devils on February 7, and were tied or trailed at the break in four of the seven games since then.
Carolina is a second half team, and the wins against Duke and Virginia exemplify that. But UNC simply cannot afford to be in a 12-point hole in Durham. The hostile crowd in Durham will test the Tar Heels’ composure, especially on a Saturday night with revenge on the minds of every Dookie in attendance.
Trimble, in particular, must set the example for the other four starters who are making their first appearance at Cameron.
Weather the first wave, settle in, and find your game.
