Boston Baro (25)
Steve says:
Boston Baro had a solid 2024, establishing himself as a player to keep an eye on, but his progress and development took a backslide in 2025. He still has youth on his side but is currently being
fueled more by how he has room to improve rather than how he has improved. Without one standout tool, his ultimate upside is a well-rounded player who does a lot of things fairly well, but profiles like that can fall into obscurity fairly quickly.
Lukas says:
It was a real let-down season for Baro, who failed to hit in High-A and saw his stock tumble while most of the system around him surged. It wasn’t a complete disaster and he’s still only 21 (and spent most of the season at 20) so it’s too early to give up entirely. At the same time, his power remains middling (ISO below .100) and the hit tool promise hasn’t materialized either. There are more exciting guys I’d have preferred here.
Daiverson Gutierrez (24)
Steve says:
Daiverson Gutierrez thoroughly impressed me in 2024. After an unimpressive first season as a professional in the DSL, he rebounded with revamped mechanics at the plate and killed it. He was roughly an average hitter last season, posting a 98 wRC+ in his 91 games with St. Lucie, and while there is probably a lot of variance in his offensive profile because of a lack of in-game power to count on, he has well-rounded defensive chops, giving him a solid floor as a developmental starting point.
Lukas says:
The just-missed list features a couple other formerly well regarded top catching prospects, but Gutierrez managed to keep his head above the waterline for another season. He posted average-ish slash line in his first full season stateside with some positive hit-tool and approach markers under the hood, and even a decent pulled fly ball rate to boot. The lack of exit velo – and corresponding lack of damage (.067 ISO) – is the main thing holding Gutierrez back right now. If he can add some more oomph without degrading his other skills, there might be something here. But he’s also a young catcher so…you know how that goes.
Randy Guzman (23)
Steve says:
Controversial is not the right word, but Randy Guzman is, I think, the most out of nowhere player on the list this year. He earned it though. His surface stats were great and the underlying metrics powering his surface stats were just as strong. Guzman is still young enough with no real track record that we can’t completely negate the idea that he had a flash in the pan season, but outside of a BABIP that seems way too high to be sustainable and whiff rate a bit higher than normal, there is nothing that screams Guzman was a complete illusion.
Lukas says:
After two seasons in the DSL – neither of which was particularly impressive – Guzman came out of nowhere and now looks like a real prospect. He posted a 108.5 90th percentile exit velocity – well above the major league average of ~104 and a 70 on the 20 – 80 scale – as a 20-year-old in St. Lucie, and his max of 111.9 MPH is excellent as well. You might expect horrific contact problems but no, Guzman puts bat to ball at a totally fine level. He even pulls the ball in the air a good amount, often a flaw for younger players. These are most of the ingredients to be a really exciting prospect, but Guzman is ranked in the 20s because he chases nearly 44% of the time. Some guys are able to improve that sort of flaw, and it’s worth noting that Guzman did walk more on the complex. Many others don’t, oftentimes because it’s a fundamental pitch recognition issue. We’ll see which side of that dichotomy Guzman winds up on.
Eli Serrano III (22)
Steve says:
I was not a fan of Eli Serrano’s selection in the 2024 draft, not because he is a bad player necessarily but because his path for professional success seemed unnecessarily complicated as compared to other players who were still available and seen as reasonable selections for the 4th round of the 2024 MLB Draft. Here we are a year-and-a-half later, and Serrano still hasn’t popped, but neither has anyone else who was selected in the rest of the round (sans Dakota Jordan, who signed for more than three times what Serrano did). As long as nobody else blooms, I am fine with Serrano having plenty of time to put in the work.
Lukas says:
Serrano was a personal favorite last offseason, and I shoved him all the way up to #12 on the basis of a limited pro sample where he changed his approach to pull the ball in the air more often. That thesis seemed to be playing out early-on; through May 23rd, Serrano batted .243/.366/.441 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, good for a 144 wRC+ in the pitcher-friendly Maimonides Park (both due to brutal wind that blows right-to-left and a horrific batter’s eye for left-hand hitters). Then he missed two weeks with a lower-body injury and was a below average hitter the rest of the way, with a paltry .212/.308/.304 line. Some part of this may have been normal regression or the league figuring him out, but the timing suggests the injury played a role in the reduced production. Serrano still had a good year overall, implementing a swing change and maintaining decent contact and damage metrics. We’ll hopefully see him in Double-A in 2026 where he’ll have a chance to demonstrate that his strong first half was more representative of his underlying talent.
Edward Lantigua (21)
Steve says:
Last year, Edward Lantigua was a wildcard who was getting some helium thanks to a projectable body, solid surface numbers, and metrics that backed up the legitimacy of those numbers. A year later, all of that remains the same, except the outfielder passed his first test by doing the same kinds of things that got him helium in the first place at the Port St. Lucie complex. Lantigua will presumably begin the 2026 season in Single-A St. Lucie and any kind of sustained success there will certainly catapult him into the ranks of bona fide Mets prospects.
Lukas says:
On the surface, Lantigua had a really nice season in the complex last year, demonstrating good bat-to-ball skills and an excellent eye at the plate. A couple of years ago, I’d be falling over myself to rank this sort of guy closer to the top-10. Nowadays, the signs of passivity are a bit more of a warning sign. Yes, Lantigua walked more than he struck out and that’s undeniably a good-outcome; however, it can also be a sign of passivity at the plate, a trait which can artificially inflate hit tools as well. None of this is to say Lantigua is a bad prospect, there’s an intriguing blend of average or slightly-above tools and a good degree of polish. Nevertheless, there’s a reason a dude with a 144 wRC+ last season isn’t getting blown up, and he’ll need to continue proving this OBP-heavy approach works as he moves up the ladder.
Antonio Jimenez (20)
Steve says:
Like Eli Serrano above, Jimenez was another player whose selection I didn’t like at the time because I felt like there were better players still on the board when the Mets made the 102nd pick. That said, Jimenez’ path to success seems much more linear than Serrano’s; unfortunately, what he needs to work on might be one of the most difficult things a hitter can improve on. He swings hard and swings at everything, resulting in a lot of loud contact yes, but a lot of swings-and-misses and weak contact as well. I don’t think we know enough about Jimenez as a person and as a player to say that he won’t be able to reign in this Achilles heel of his, but it is a testament to the Mets’ developmental pipeline that it will all be okay if he doesn’t; not that I want Jimenez to be a bust, if he does, his failure will not be a catastrophic hit to the organization.
Lukas says:
Jimenez was admittedly not my favorite selection in last year’s draft. There’s undeniable athleticism, bat-to-ball ability, and bat speed here, all positive traits that you’re excited to get from an underslot pick in 3rd round. The swing decisions though…they’re ugly The folks running the Mets’ draft are widely regarded as some of the best in the game, and they’re clearly placing an emphasis on the sort of high-end athletic traits that Jimenez has, a philosophy that has already paid clear dividends. I can’t shake my long-standing belief that approach is one of the trickiest things to teach, however, and is indeed often tied to a different set of athletic traits (e.g., eyesight, processing speed, etc.). For that reason, I remain a bit lower on Jimenez even while acknowledging the clear upside here if he can rein in the aggression.
Ryan Lambert (19)
Steve says:
The Mets drafted a bunch of right-handed pitchers in the middle rounds of the 2024 MLB Draft that all had roughly the same kind of pitch characteristics: a fastball with high induced vertical break, a sharp slider, and not a lot of mileage on their arms. Ryan Lambert fit those criteria, but he also did something that none of the other pitchers in that grouping did: throw incredibly hard. In a world of spin rates and spin axis’ and spin efficiencies, there is still something just viscerally appealing about seeing a pitcher blow a triple-digit fastball by a batter. Lambert’s walk rate is problematic, but given how few hits he allowed and for how little power the preponderance most of those hits were, you can tolerate the bases on balls.
Lukas says:
We really shouldn’t be ranking relief prospects, or at least not as often as we used to. The Mets’ system is better than that at this point. But when a guy posts an ERA under 2 over 50 innings across two levels with a K% approaching 40%, you take notice. Even after a promotion to Double-A where his walk rate ballooned to 14.7%, Lambert still bordered on unhittable. The fastball remains gross, an IVB-heavy offering that Lambert is able to blow by hitters at the top of the zone, and his secondaries have become highly effective as well. Two things to watch here; the control, of course, and also how these pitches play given Lambert’s release traits. Put simply, the vert-heavy movement profile he gets is close to what you’d expect coming out of an over-the-top arm, reducing the deception. Still this looks like a potential late-inning arm that should help the Mets in 2027 – fantastic outcome for an 8th round pick.
Dylan Ross (18)
Steve says:
Similar to Ryan Lambert, Dylan Ross’ walk rate was problematic, but given how few hits he allowed and for such little damage, you can live with the walks. Ross does his damage with a true splitter, which is not something that too many other pitchers in the system utilize, and the pitch is one of the better ones in all of minor league baseball. It’s pretty incredible and a testament to the team’s developmental system that, even factoring in a first-round bust, the 2022 MLB Draft class seems poised to be one of the strongest in Mets history.
Lukas says:
Ross is yet another late-round success story for the Mets, a 13th rounder in 2022 that now looks the part of a legitimate late-inning weapon. Both his slider and splitter are nasty offerings, with 90th percentile or better quality metrics in Triple-A per Rob Orr and whiff rates to match. He also throws in the upper 90s and has touched 102. Sounds great, but there are some warts. Ross’s fastball has pretty poor shape, something he gets away with due to the velocity but not ideal, particularly if you value fastball whiff rates (something I put a lot of emphasis on). Second, his command collapsed in Triple-A, with a BB% of 17.3%. Now he still had a 1.69 ERA in Syracuse, demonstrating how unhittable he can be, but I worry the lack of command and bad fastball ultimately all makes this play down a bit, more in the “annoying 7th inning guy that should be more” role.
Chris Suero (17)
Steve says:
It’s hard not to root for Chris Suero; he’s a likable, down-to-earth, locally raised kid. There are two ways to look at his 2025, in particular his second half, which saw him promoted to Double-A Binghamton. Has he hit a developmental wall? Or is it a case of a young kid being exposed to tougher pitching and needing more time to adapt? Suero’s approach at the plate, coupled with very few changes to his batting line or approach save the lack of power does worry me that it could be the former, but there is no rush and no need for Suero to be pushed aggressively. I think the catcher-outfielder has plenty of time to get more at-bats under his belt and crack the nut that is Double-A pitching.
Lukas says:
I was a big believer in Suero last offseason and he had, by any top-line measurement, an extremely successful season – 140 wRC+ across two levels, finishing in Double-A as a 21-year-old. Despite that, I don’t think I’m all that much higher on him than I was last offseason, primarily because of the contact concerns. Suero spent much of 2025 swinging out his shoes resulting in both better damage on contact but also a big spike in strikeout rate. After getting promoted to Double-A, the strikeouts remained but the improved damage largely vanished. Suero still looks like a very fun multi-positional backup, but it’s trending more TTO than I would’ve expected – would love to see him reign things in slightly and find a happy medium this upcoming season.
R.J. Gordon (16)
Steve says:
If you would’ve told me on July 16, 2024 that R.J. Gordon was going to be a top prospect in the minor league system, I would’ve laughed at you. Gordon did not exactly have an impressive college career, and the stuff, while fine, did not exactly jump off the page at you. He then developed a “kick” changeup, the same kind of changeup that Nolan McLean developed, and here we are. The right-hander only made 10 starts (11 appearances) in Double-A Binghamton last year, so presumably he will begin the 2026 season there, but if he continues putting up the numbers he did last year, you could make a strong case that Gordon’s name should be found somewhere in the 2026 Mets pitching depth chart.
Lukas says:
Gordon is a 24-year-old who spent only half his season at Double-A last year. That’s not a great way to start a report, but then you remember that he posted an ERA over 5 with middling peripherals for Oregon one season prior. That he’s a notable prospect at all is a huge developmental win, one of many college arms littered across the system that the Mets have demonstrably improved since draft time. Gordon’s arsenal is a rather generic 95-and-a-slider package, but the slider is legitimately good and he ran a K% in the high 20s. As is, he’s a nice potential back-end starter or flexible relief piece. I also wouldn’t rule out more though; it’s not immediately obvious to me that there’s more juice here, but the Mets just keep finding ways to make arms better.
Nick Morabito (15)
Steve says:
Nick Morabito’s selection in the 2022 MLB Draft wasn’t seen as a complete head scratcher, per se, but the profile along with the early underwhelming numbers and unimpressive first professional looks didn’t exactly inspire confidence. Here we are a few years later, and improbably, the outfielder is on the cusp of being a major league contributor. Granted, his offensive profile is extremely hard to make work at the major league level, but Morabito has a high defensive floor, and in centerfield no less, which should help keep his name in the conversation for a roster spot somewhere or other for years to come.
Lukas says:
The Morabito selection was widely derided in 2022, and his post-draft showing didn’t build much confidence. All he’s done since then is hit though, working his way up the system through 2023 and 24 before logging a very successful full season at Binghamton in 2025. Much better than many thought he’d be post draft to be sure, but there’s still reasons for healthy skepticism. Morabito remains a BABIP-dependent player, one who doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard or at particularly good angles most of the time. His speed and groundball tendencies eat up minor-league fielders, but that won’t work in the majors, and he lacks both meaningful power and the ability to play centerfield. I have some concerns about his bat-to-ball ability too, though he bounced back from some early troubles there in Double-A. He’s a proximal 4th / 5th OF prospect.
Zach Thornton (14)
Steve says:
Zach Thornton is your classic “package is greater than the sum of its parts” pitchers, and players like that are hard to gauge sometimes. Thornton reminds me a lot of P.J. Conlon; the left-handedness, the pinpoint control, the funk in the delivery, the success in the minor leagues despite not having true elite stuff. Given how pitching rich the minor league system is currently and the fact that the left-hander is a clear tier or two below some of the other names, I’m not really sure where Thornton fits in. Regardless of how he fits into future plans- or where- I think there is a definite major league floor in some capacity.
Lukas says:
Starting this blurb bold: I think we’re too low on Zach Thornton. He’s a lanky lefty that throws pitches more suited for the 1990s in terms of velocity, but he also ran a K-BB% of 24.5% in Double-A during his abbreviated season. The fastball blows by people thanks to outstanding IVB even though it sits 89. Couple that with a good slider and a deep repertoire of other stuff – cutter, change, curve – and you get a diverse arsenal that I suspect would rank highly on BP’s surprise metric. Mix in excellent command, and you’ve got a junk baller that I think is at least a 4th starter type. The upside beyond that is capped barring a velocity jump, but Thornton is probably my favorite non-elite guy in the system at this point.
Elian Peña (13)
Steve says:
I have been told by many, many people that they do not share my opinions about ranking extremely young and raw players. It’s not a ding against a player per se, but the less playing time and experience they have, the less data we have to show that they can do X, Y, or Z, which is an anathema to the entire concept of taking a big group of players, weighing them on their merits, accomplishments, and potential, and ranking them in ordinal lists. At times, people have gotten on my case, but based on the volatility of these young players (hey Collin Houck, hey Trey Snyder, hey Colt Cabana, how ya doing?), the carriage is being put before the horse way too often. All that said, Elian Peña forced himself into the conversation of whether or not he should be considered a top organizational prospect with his 2025 performance, and looking over the limited data that could be mined from his 2025 campaign in the Dominican Summer League, he doesn’t seem to be a mirage. His swing looks good. The data shows he’s hitting the ball hard. He’s pulling and lifting the ball for damage. He’s not too rambunctious. He’s got wheels. Despite being a 17-year-old with 55 games of DSL experience, Peña does seem to be legit. Hopefully, in a year, we’ll be having this same discussion about Wandy Asigen.
Lukas says:
More than ever, ranking prospects is a data game. What were the EVs? The swing and miss? How’s the approach look? What are the spray characteristics? All quantifiable and, for many domestic leagues, quite accessible. The DSL is a different nut, where the data is harder to get your hands on and of lower quality if you do, and where the competition level makes evaluation – particularly for hitters – quite challenging. For all these reasons, I hate trying to rank guys like Peña. He certainly looks the part of “good IFA who probably moves off short but has a potent enough bat to make it work”. The data, which I’ve not seen first hand, supposedly backs that up, with a solid blend of contact and thump and a penchant for pulling the ball in the air. Couple that with the incoming pedigree and this is about the right spot to slot him. Check back in throughout the seasons as we build up a more real factbase on the actual quality of prospect here.
Jonathan Santucci (12)
Steve says:
Jonathan Santucci had a strong professional debut last season, pitching acceptably well in High-A Brooklyn and then very well in Double-A Binghamton. The Mets have done a very good job in the last few years maximizing players with Santucci’s profile, and we saw the learning in real time last season, with the southpaw getting better as the year went on, getting a better feel for his changeup and curveball and improving his command. I get Steven Matz vibes from Santucci, where the stuff was very much obviously there, but many evaluators were hesitant to give him his due for a while because of the injury history. Despite turning 23 next season and already having 50 innings in Double-A under his belt, I don’t think we need to rush Santucci; he is in a weird developmental position where he still only has a total of 246.0 high-level baseball innings under his belt, with 117.2 of them, almost half, coming from his time in Brooklyn and Binghamton last year. Santucci is Schrödinger’s Pitcher, somehow raw and a finished product at the same time.
Lukas says:
Santucci is probably my least favorite of the recent college arms (I had him a good deal lower than this, though it’s all a bit of a blob anyway). The stuff is good, but not great, and the scattershot command makes it all play down a bit. Now, he was excellent in the second half, including a 50 inning run in Binghamton with an ERA of 2.52 and peripherals to back it up. He’s also largely stayed healthy since being drafted, a major concern that made him available to the Mets in the 2nd round in the first place. This is all tracking towards the archetype of a frustrating back-of-the-rotation arm who flashes better quality but never quite puts it all together. He’ll be part of the Mets’ (very deep) rotation depth chart in 2026.
Mitch Voit (11)
Steve says:
Voit’s selection in the 2025 MLB Draft was underwhelming to me, to say the least. Obviously, making their first selection with the 38th overall pick, there is going to be a lack of luster on the players available as compared to other true first-rounders, but there were still a handful of players floating around who signed for a comparable amount that I would have preferred, such as Brendan Summerhill, Zach Root or Cam Cannarella. Voit gives me Bryson Stott vibes- an overall well-rounded hitter, with more of an emphasis on speed and stolen bases rather than power and home runs in Voit’s case, that will spend most of his time at second base. If he develops enough to make it to the major leagues and becomes a Stott-ish player, that’s a great outcome, but nothing about Voit right now makes me feel like he will turn into a real standout kind of player. That’s still a win for the developmental system obviously, and luckily the organization is in a position where every cashout doesn’t need to be a jackpot.
Lukas says:
Despite not having a selection until #38 overall, it seems like the Mets managed to get another interesting prospect in last year’s draft in Voit. He fits the recent organizational trend of selecting two-way college guys (Nolan McLean, Carson Benge being other notable examples), a pathway to potentially untapped developmental runway. Voit already saw both contact and approach improvements in his final collegiate season after giving up pitching, and post draft there were further positive markers in terms of his defensive acumen. That said, there were some notable swing and miss challenges in pro ball, and the exit velocities were middling at best. I’m still bullish on Voit overall, but you should expect more “potential solid regular” rather than another high-level breakout like Benge.
