The Dallas Cowboys visiting the New York Jets this Sunday afternoon is a homecoming of sorts for head coach Brian Schottenheimer. Although Schottenheimer started his coaching career nine years prior to joining the Jets as offensive coordinator in 2006,his stop with New York became his longest to that point, and was his first NFL coordinator position.
When Cowboys ownership, and in particular Jerry Jones, talked about their pride in being the first team to make a coaching lifer like Schottenheimer
a first-time head coach, his more recent history already being on Mike McCarthy’s staff, and before that his time with Pete Carroll and the Seahawks is often what comes up. Going way back in the archives to his days with the Jets feels less relevant, and even with the Jets being this week’s opponent, the time for Schottenheimer to reminisce on this past with his current team sitting at 1-2-1 feels short.
For the most part, the Cowboys have done a good job looking like an overall focused and prepared team under Schottenheimer’s guidance so far, and will need to do exactly that to avoid a potentially season-breaking letdown game against the currently winless Jets. The Cowboys already had one such game in a “homecoming” scenario for defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus against the Bears, who will call plays against another one of his former quarterbacks Justin Fields making his fourth start for the Jets (missing week three) versus the Cowboys on Sunday.
While this will be one storyline to watch for a Cowboys defense that would welcome signs of progress against any opponent right now, the bigger key to coming out on top for their first of two possible wins at MetLife Stadium in 2025 rests in the hands of Schottenheimer. This brings us to our weekly look at what the Cowboys must do to get their first win at the Jets since 2003, and what would cost them their third road loss of the season.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the New York Jets if…
the offensive line picks up where it left off against the Green Bay Packers.
Fully appreciating what the Cowboys offense did last Sunday night against the Packers was made unfortunately difficult by their defense allowing 40 points, making it the first time in over a decade the Cowboys didn’t win a game by scoring 40 themselves. Even with another letdown defensively, there were things to read between the lines as slight signs of progress on defense, but the progress on offense, even without CeeDee Lamb was much, much more tangible. The Cowboys’ offensive approach bodes well for their matchup against this Jets defense which has lost to Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Tua Tagovailoa.
The Cowboys finding out that George Pickens is capable of stepping up as a WR1 against the Packers was one of the best things they did in the tie, but it was the offensive line that was even more depleted. Dallas had backups starting again at both center and right guard, and had to bring in backup tackle Nate Thomas for reps on both the left and right side. Still, the Cowboys were able to get a push in the run game and keep Micah Parsons off the stat sheet without a sack until late in the game when he chased down Dak Prescott right at the line of scrimmage. Most Cowboys fans would love to have a chat with both the official scorer that ruled that play a sack, as well as the time keeper that left one second at the end of overtime for the Packers to tie the score.
The Cowboys offensive line did it’s job to allow Prescott to have a masterful performance from the pocket, and Schotty’s play-calling equally did a job helping the line with misdirection plays and play-action. The Cowboys are still searching for a game they can take full control of and play on their terms this season, and Sunday against a reeling opponent could be that opportunity. The Jets defense ranks in the bottom ten in the NFL in first downs allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game and yards per pass attempt against. They are dead last in the percentage of runs compared to pass plays they have seen against them, and have only six sacks this season.
None of these sacks came last Monday night for the Jets in a loss at the Dolphins, a game that looks closer judging by the final score than it really was. Tagovailoa was protected all game, had zero incompletions throwing to top target Tyreek Hill before he was injured, three incompletions targeting Jaylen Waddle, and only one to tight end Darren Waller. De’Von Achane averaged five yards a carry, and the Dolphins led this game 17-3 and 24-10 at different points in route to a 27-21 win. Also looking for their first win, the Dolphins clearly looked like the better team against the Jets, and shredded their defense on the second level with layered throws.
When the Cowboys put on this tape to prepare for Sunday, there should be plenty of things for Schottenheimer to really like about his matchups for Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams, and even rookie RB Jaydon Blue expected to be active for the first time.
Knowing that Prescott is capable of the heroics he pulled off against the Packers is one thing, but balancing the offensive effort more to not need the amount of clutch throws he’s been asked to make is another. This is an important thing the Cowboys need to find sustainable success in 2025. When Schottenheimer coached with the Jets, they were known for their physical run game. Bringing that back with the visiting team this time and opening up downfield throws to make the explosive plays would be a welcome sight here in week five.
Leaning on their offensive line against a Jets defense with all kinds of issues in the front seven is the way to do so and get in the win column for the first time since week two.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the New York Jets if…
they cannot take away the rushing threat from Justin Fields.
The offensive highlight last week for the Jets in their fourth loss was Justin Fields scrambling for an improv 43-yard touchdown. The third quarter score actually pulled the Jets within 17-10, threatening for a divisional win to right the ship, but they never drew any closer. It was Fields’ third rushing touchdown of the season after having two in his first start for New York in week one against Pittsburgh. Fields will be the biggest rushing threat from the QB position the Cowboys will see since week one, when Jalen Hurts ran in three touchdowns against Eberflus’ defense.
The Jets’ passing attack being overly dependent on Garrett Wilson could play into the hands of the Cowboys’ zone defense, allowing them to keep defenders in his space without always turning and running in man coverage. This should allow them to keep better contain of Fields as well. When New York’s offense does have the element of Fields scrambling going for them though, it helps the likes of RB Breece Hall and TE Mason Taylor get more involved. Taylor’s targets have seen a sharp increase the last two weeks, so the much-maligned Cowboys linebackers will have to be prepared in coverage.
When the Cowboys lost to the Eagles in week one, they were beat by the legs of Hurts as a result of staying committed to stopping the interior run against Saquon Barkley. With the Jets rushing attack, Fields is not the only threat outside the tackles, as Hall can be more dynamic here. Dallas will need to have an edge to their defense, but not get their zone stretched too far vertically to allow the big plays over the top. Fundamentals of tackling and not committing penalties like they had against the Packers will also be critical.
The Cowboys need to handle business on both sides of the ball to get back on track at the Jets.
