Week 10 was certainly an interesting one here on Betting the Big Ten. Michigan and Michigan State predictably hit the under, while UCLA and Wisconsin covered. We missed badly on the Ohio State vs. Oregon under, but I am A OK with that as the Ducks offense exploded for 41 points against the Buckeye defense. We finished the week 4-4, bringing our season total to 55-49-1. We’re still in the green!
Week 11 has a couple of do-or-die type games on the schedule as USC looks to stay alive against Indiana.
Ohio State and Northwestern are likely already out of CFP contention, but the loser of that matchup won’t even have a prayer’s chance anymore. It could be an interesting week.
As always, all lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Illinois at UCLA (-10), O/U 47.5, 9 p.m. ET Friday
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. UCLA is still unblemished on the season against the spread. Vegas still isn’t showing the Bruins the love, as the spread here has shifted from UCLA -13 to -10. Until proven otherwise, I’m always taking the Bruins.
The pick: UCLA -10
Northwestern at Ohio State (-12.5), O/U 45.5, Noon ET Saturday
This is a sneaky game that the Buckeyes could lose. However, it helps that it’s in Columbus. Per The Action Network, 61% of all bets are on Northwestern, yet the spread has slid from Ohio State -9.5 up to 12.5. There’s big money on the Buckeyes in this one, which is always difficult to bet against. Pay special attention to the health of Aidan Chiles this week.
The pick: Ohio State -12.5
Wisconsin (-8.5) at Maryland, O/U 43.5, Noon ET
According to The Action Network, a whopping 94% of all bets against the total in this matchup are on the over. You’d think that would mean the total would skyrocket up. Instead, it hasn’t moved an inch. While Maryland tends to go over (7-2), Wisconsin is just 3-6 against the total and has gone under in five straight games. That’s enough for me to ride the under.
The pick: Under 43.5
Nebraska (-14) at Rutgers, O/U 52.5, 12:30 p.m. ET
14 is an awkward spread in this one. The betting public seems to be split on it as well. There isn’t much to be gleaned on the total, as Nebraska is 3-6 and Rutgers is 6-3, so they are polar opposites. However, Matt Rhule’s Cornhuskers are 6-3 ATS while Rutgers is just 4-5. It’s not an incredibly strong trend, but I like Nebraska to break their outright losing streak in a big way this weekend.
The pick: Nebraska -14
USC at Indiana (-10), O/U 50.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
USC has to have this game in order to stay in CFP contention. You know what Lincoln Riley tends to do when he has to have games? He loses them. Despite 82% of the betting public being on USC this week, the spread took an abrupt jump from 7 to 10 in Indiana’s favor. Vegas knows something. I’m not sure what it is, but it’s something significant. Give me the Hoosiers.
The pick: Indiana -10
Michigan at Oregon (-10.5), O/U 38.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
Let’s get weird. Is Michigan any good? Absolutely not. Is Oregon any good? Maybe, but it might be too late for them. The total is untouchable here as Michigan nearly always goes under (2-7) while Oregon goes over a majority of the time (6-3). While both of these teams are below .500 ATS, there’s one trend that I love: Michigan is 2-0 ATS as an underdog while Oregon is a hideous 2-5 ATS as a favorite. Will Michigan win this game outright? Most certainly not as the Wolverine offense doesn’t know how to score. However, I love the Michigan defense when I can be given 10.5 points.
The pick: Michigan +10.5
Washington (-3.5) at Michigan State, O/U 43.5, 4:15 p.m. ET
Michigan State had been having an abysmal season prior to pulling out all the stops to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor last weekend. The Spartans ran an offensive scheme that they hadn’t shown all season and likely had been saving for their rivals. The week after is a prime letdown spot. This is still a not-very-talented MSU team, so I’ll take Washington and lay the points.
The pick: Washington -3.5
Minnesota at Penn State (-9.5), O/U 41.5, 7 p.m. ET
This is the most stunning spread of the week in my opinion. Minnesota had been one of the pleasant surprises of the Big Ten season with wins over Michigan and Iowa prior to losing to Indiana and UCLA in their last two games. Penn State had been the laughingstock of the conference as the Matt Campbell era was off to a brutal start. However, the Nittany Lions have won two games in a row over Purdue and Washington. Both are middling ATS, but the spread being this large is such a rat line. I’m eating the cheese.
The pick: Penn State -9.5
Purdue at Iowa (-17.5), O/U 47.5, 7:30 p.m. ET
Don’t look now, but Iowa is a dark-horse CFP contender. There’s a world where the Hawkeyes win out, finish 10-2 and third in the Big Ten, meaning they won’t pick up a loss in the final Big Ten Championship Game. It’s hard to imagine a 10-2 Big Ten team not making the CFP. Iowa is 6-3 ATS while Purdue is 3-6 and 1-2 ATS on the road. I’m nervous about this pick, but the Hawkeyes just have so much more to play for than Purdue does.
