It has been a tough week for the Cardinals with a five-game losing streak plunging their playoff odds below two percent. The season has been more competitive and fun than expected, but the fall from contention stings nonetheless. I am a reasonably logical person, but there is an irrational part of my brain that has spent most of the season expecting the Cardinals to make the playoffs. For most of the year, it felt like everything was breaking right. The Walker comeback story. Wetherholt became an instant
star. The rotation was exceeding all reasonable expectations. There were problems, but a leaky bullpen and lack of a third baseman would surely not be enough to undermine a magical playoff run. Well, the aforementioned losing streak snapped me back to reality and motivated me to do a more objective check-in of how the team is performing relative to preseason expectations.
To do this, I will compare the January ZiPS projections, position by position, to the team’s actual production thus far. The ZiPS overview graphic is based on the Depth Charts projection at that point in time, so I will use that to reference the players’ expected playing time.
Catcher
Projected WAR: 2.8
Current WAR: 1.6
It will take a hot finish for the catching cohort to catch up to the preseason ZiPS projection. Depth Charts had pegged Pedro Pages for over half the catcher playing time with Herrera, Pozo, and Crooks slated for about 100 plate appearances each. Pages has underperformed slightly and Herrera’s poor defense has allowed him to accrue only 1.1 WAR at catcher despite a 129 wRC+ when behind the plate. The biggest driver of the miss is Crooks’ 0.1 WAR in 45 games.
You do have to give the Cardinals credit for sticking to the Herrera experiment all season. I do not have a developed enough eye for scouting catcher defense to say if he has improved throughout the year, but his season defensive stats leave much to be desired. My hope is that there is clear communication going into the offseason regarding Herrera’s defensive home in 2027. This will go a long way toward clarifying the catcher logjam. As far as the remainder of this season, it would be great to see Crooks finish strong with the bat. He has been difficult to watch at times, but with his track record of minor league performance, he still has plenty of upside to dream on.
First Base
Projected WAR: 1.9
Current WAR: 2.1
Our first “exceeds expectations” grade! Depth Charts properly pegged Alec Burleson as the primary first baseman, accruing most of the value to drive the solid 1.9 WAR projection. Gorman, Pozo, and Brendan Donovan were penciled in for 250 plate appearances at first as well. Burly has racked up 2.6 WAR to offset the -0.5 contributed by Blaze Jordan, Jose Fermin, and Ramon Urias.
I don’t think we have too much to learn about the first base situation for the remainder of the year. Burleson is established as one of the best hitters in baseball against righties. He has hit lefties better as the season has progressed, but most of that improvement is BABIP-driven, so he still looks like he could benefit from a strong platoon partner. We will have plenty of time to discuss if and how Burleson fits into the long-term plans, but regardless, he has increased his value substantially with his continued improvement.
Second Base
Projected WAR: 2.8
Current WAR: 4.4
Another huge win! And this one in spite of losing Brendan Donovan after the projections came out. Donovan was slated for the majority of the playing time at second base. In fact, Wetherholt was projected for only 70 plate appearances. Wetherholt has, of course, taken the majority of the second base playing time, accruing 4.2 WAR. Saggese, Torres, Urias, Prieto, and Fermin have all filled in occasionally and managed to hold serve with a collective 0.2 WAR.
The only drama that remains is whether Wetherholt can claim his rightful title of Rookie of the Year, but the Cardinals are set at the keystone for the next decade or so.
Shortstop
Projected WAR: 3.5
Current WAR: 2.0
Winn was projected for 90% of the shortstop playing time and is likely to fall a bit short due to his recent injury. This has been the second straight season of offensive decline for Winn, but his defense remains incredible enough to soften the blow. His underlying offensive metrics are in line with his career averages, if not a bit better, so I am not too worried about him moving forward. Still, another season without taking a step forward decreases the probability that he has another gear to his offensive game.
JJ Wetherholt has been the only other positive contributor at the position with 0.3 WAR while Saggese, Urias, Fermin, and Prieto have given back all that value and then some (-0.6 WAR) in just 35 plate appearances combined.
It would be great to see Winn come back from his injury and finish strong and then sign a long-term extension in the offseason.
Third Base
Projected WAR: 3.2
Current WAR: -0.1
No surprises here as we are all painfully aware of the hole at third base. The preseason projection had Wetherholt taking the majority of his reps at third base, so this is really where the Donovan-sized hole shows up. Gorman (0.5 WAR) and Blaze Jordan (0.3 WAR) have pitched in positive WAR contributions thanks to their solid defensive numbers, but Prieto, Fermin, Urias, and Torres have torpedoed any hope of cobbling together reasonable team-level performance with -0.9 WAR combined.
With Jordan’s injury, it looks like we could be in for Gorman’s last stand down the stretch. It is hard for me to imagine the Cardinals being willing to pay Gorman a second-year arbitration salary this offseason, but they have stuck with him this long, so you never know. Jordan has shown me enough that I would like to see him get an extended run to start next season while we wait for potential challengers from the minor leagues to emerge.
Left Field
Projected WAR: 2.6
Current WAR: 0.7
Left field has been yet another underperformance, but you can give the team a partial mulligan due to trades. The projections coming into the year were based on about half a season of Lars Nootbaar and 140 plate appearances from Donovan giving above-average production. With Nootbaar missing the first couple of months and being dealt, the position has been a complete revolving door with seven players getting at least 11 appearances. Fermin, Torres, Pereira, Nootbaar, and Church have combined for a solid 1.7 WAR, but truly terrifying performances from Saggese and Velazquez have given back more than half that value.
Joshua Baez is going through an adjustment period, but at least there is finally someone in place that has a real chance at being a long-term solution.
Center Field
Projected WAR: 2.3
Current WAR: 0.2
Another clunker… I had completely forgotten how solid Victor Scott’s projections were coming into the year. He was projected for the majority of the playing time with Lars Nootbaar and Nathan Church filling in the gaps. Nathan Church is a fun guy to root for and does have some tools, but he is a long shot to ever be a starting-caliber player on a true contender.
I still like Chase Davis as a potential delayed breakout lottery ticket, but he is certainly not someone you project as a starter. Josiah Ragsdale and Tai Peete are both getting center field time in Springfield but are likely at least a year away. Scott has been on a nice run in Memphis over the last month, so perhaps he will be given another chance in September. There are a lot of names who could step forward, but it is unclear if any of them will be able to hit enough to stick.
Right Field
Projected WAR: 0.4
Current WAR: 2.6
The second big win of the 2026 campaign courtesy of Jordan Walker. I don’t think anyone has forgotten how poorly Walker was projected coming into the year. His ZiPS projection was actually below replacement, so the only reason the position WAR was projected above zero was because Nootbaar and Church were expected to contribute above-replacement value in 30 games. Walker has posted 3.1 WAR, while his occasional backups have given back about half a win.
Designated Hitter
Projected WAR: 2.8
Current WAR: 0.6
The DH position has been a massive disappointment. Herrera has only managed 0.2 WAR while putting up a 100 wRC+ in his non-catching time. Gorman also snuck in and sabotaged the overall positional value for 15 games of -0.6 WAR “production.” The only things keeping the position positive overall are the production of Burleson and Walker in limited playing time and a red-hot seven-game stint from Nelson Velazquez with three home runs.
While the 0.6 WAR looks bad, it is important to put it into context. Because of the positional adjustment penalty, that total actually ranks 12th in all of baseball. If Herrera is relegated to DH only next season, he should still project as one of the best in baseball.
Starting Pitchers
Projected WAR: 9.6
Current WAR: 10.8
Outside of Liberatore’s underperformance and Richard Fitts’ injury, the starting rotation has been a bright spot for most of the year. Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, and Andre Pallante have already sailed past their full-season projected WAR totals and McGreevy still has a chance to get close with a strong finish.
Down the stretch, you really just want to see no more injuries. Quinn Mathews throwing strikes would be a nice added bonus if I get a second wish. The Cardinals will have impressive major league depth heading into next season with an absurd concentration of starting pitcher talent at Springfield and Memphis. Whether they can develop a true ace remains an open question, but the backbone of a great rotation is coming into focus.
Relief Pitchers
Projected WAR: 1.9
Current WAR: 0.2
The less said about the bullpen, the better… I remember being extremely confident that the bullpen would outdo the already bad 1.9 WAR projection, so this really just serves as another reminder that bullpens are impossible to predict. Luis Gastelum is on an incredible heater in his last nine games with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and only one run allowed. Perhaps Cade Winquest will be able to provide some added juice down the stretch, but regardless, we are likely to enter 2027 viewing the pen as a huge question mark.
For how well this season has gone, it is surprising how many positions have underperformed projections this year. Only three of the nine positions are likely to finish better than expected, and much of the overperformance from the rotation has been given back by the bullpen. That is how baseball goes, though: every Wetherholt and Walker breakout has to be accompanied by a disappearing center fielder or a burning bullpen. I would still absolutely take the results and development that the Cardinals have had relative to expectations. Finding star players is the hardest and most expensive thing for any franchise to do, and the Cardinals may have finally found two in Walker and Wetherholt.
