It’s been a whole three days of free agency signings across the NFL. To parse through the craze, let’s identify some of the most-impacted individuals in the AFC South.
Free Agency Winners
Robert Saleh
The Boys Are Back! With a flush amount of cap space, newly hired Tennessee Titans head coach Robert Saleh has brought the band back together to spark a culture reset and roster revitalization.
Step 1 was to address the defensive line. T’Vondre Sweat was traded for Jermaine Johnson, John Franklin-Meyers happily accepted $42
million guaranteed, and Solomon Thomas was acquired in a late-round pick swap. All three played for Saleh’s Jets from 2022-23. While they may not carry significant weight individually, their chemistry — combined with Jeffery Simmons’ dominance — will absolutely be a problem for opposing offenses in 2026.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll must’ve put in a good word to spark moves for former Giants wideout Wa’Dale Robinson and cornerback Cor’Dale Flott, and cornerback Alontae Taylor decided to return home to Tennessee — now known as New New York.
With Saleh captaining the ship, a potential Year 2 jump from quarterback Cam Ward on deck, and several starting-caliber players already added to the depth chart, the Titans seem bound to make the division that much tougher.
Tyler Warren
Several members of the Indianapolis Colts stand out as early “winners” of free agency. Quarterback Daniel Jones signed a historically rich two-year contract, wideout Alec Pierce inked a top-dollar deal, and general manager Chris Ballard managed those two extensions (plus the Michael Pittman Jr. trade) as well as he could have.
An under-the-radar “winner” of all that recent activity is last year’s 14th overall pick, tight end Tyler Warren. He ranked second on the Colts behind Pittman in target share (19.4% vs 20.9%), first-read targets (64 vs 73), and receiving touchdowns (4 vs 7) in Weeks 1-13 before Jones was hurt, per Fantasy Points data.
Warren figures to be the clear No. 1 target in Indianapolis’ post-Pittman offense. And though the now-available receiving volume won’t just be absorbed by one player, Warren should command the bulk of short-to-intermediate targets over the middle of the field that Pittman previously dominated.
Warren’s best box scores will always be the product of schemed-up targets more so than game-breaking talent, but fortunately for him, there should be no shortage of action for him in the Colts 2026 pass attack.
Free Agency Losers
C.J. Stroud
National faith in the trajectory of Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has waned. The 2023 second overall pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year hasn’t made much of a leap from his first pro season, and our latest on-field impression of him cannot be described as anything other than a disaster.
That said, it’s hard to see Houston’s vision for maximizing Stroud. Its biggest moves in the past week include re-signing several defensive linemen, adding Braden Smith to replace right tackle Tytus Howard (who was shipped to Cleveland), and packaging backup lineman Juice Scruggs and draft picks for veteran rusher David Montgomery. Is this what Stroud needs, or what head coach DeMeco Ryans wants?
The Texans brass seems to think twice as highly of its offensive infrastructure as the outside world does. Until both the front office and coaching staff put their franchise passer in a better position to succeed, no “Super Bowl sleeper” discourse regarding Houston should be taken seriously.
The Texans are also losers in that they’re now the only AFC South team yet to roster outside linebacker Arden Key. Or does that make them winners?
Jaguars fans
The Trent Baalke Era created an expectation for “winning the offseason” in Duval County, and last year’s Travis Hunter acquisition was an absolute thrill. However, splashy moves of the past have put the current Jacksonville Jaguars front office in a tricky position. Flying under the radar is unfamiliar for the Jags.
Second-year general manager James Gladstone is best known for the Hunter gamble, but he’s made plenty of shrewd moves throughout his still-early tenure (e.g., fleecing the Lions in draft-day trade-down last year). In the past week, he re-signed glue guys Montaric Brown, Dennis Gardeck, and Quintin Morris to team-friendly deals while letting non-premium position players Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd land paydays elsewhere. The losses of Etienne, Lloyd, and Greg Newsome in free agency are projected to net Jacksonville three compensatory picks, per OverTheCap. And the Chris Rodriguez Jr. pickup checks out, given his fit in the current backfield and previous playing experience under Liam Coen.
Jacksonville’s early approach to free agency was sound, albeit unexciting. Where’s the big fish? Give the people what they really want: more reasons for hope.
Here’s a look at how the divisional betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook have shifted since the start of the NFL legal tampering period.
Before
- +165: Houston Texans
- +165: Jacksonville Jaguars
- +340: Indianapolis Colts
- +900: Tennessee Titans
After
- +165: Houston Texans
- +190: Jacksonville Jaguars
- +270: Indianapolis Colts
- +900: Tennessee Titans
Who else in the AFC South was impacted by the initial wave of 2026 NFL free agency?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
