Welcome to another postseason review post. Way back in August, this post looked at some of the main factors that could qualify the 2025 football season as a success for the Mountain West Conference. Now
that the season has concluded, it’s time to revisit those factors to see whether or not the MW had a successful season. Unfortunately, this wasn’t one of the conference’s better seasons.
Wins Against Power 5 Teams
Back in August, the standard for this category was set at going 3-13 in their 16 Power 4 games, or 20%. It may have been a tough task considering how things have gone in recent years, but it seemed doable.
And doable it was. Not only did the conference get three wins, but they actually went 4-12 against power conferences. Four wins aren’t much to brag about, but it’s one additional win compared to 2024, which is a step in the right direction. Hawaii took care of business against Stanford, while UNLV and New Mexico beat up on UCLA. And San Diego State’s domination of Cal was the best of the bunch.
Specifically, a few games were identified as highly winnable back in August. Here’s how they went:
Colorado State vs Washington LOSS
Fresno State vs Kansas LOSS
Hawaii vs Stanford WIN
Hawaii vs Arizona LOSS
San Diego State vs Cal WIN
San Jose State vs Stanford LOSS
UNLV vs UCLA WIN
SUCCESS
Making a Statement in OOC Games
Overall, it is important that the Mountain West showcase its talent against other teams in non-conference play. Obviously, the P5 games are a significant part of this, but really, every game is taken into account. A conference having a strong first month playing other conferences (or independents) shapes people’s perception about a conference, good or bad, accurate or not.
The goal was set at winning 58% of their non-conference games for the 2025 season. Given the schedule, it appeared to be a realistic benchmark, but it was last year, too, and the conference didn’t meet expectations.
During the preseason, a breakdown was provided on how the 48 OCC games should go. See below, with the side-by-side results included:
- Against P5 teams: 3-13 (18.75%) Actual: 4-12 (25%)
- Against the PAC2: 2-1 (66.67%) Actual: 1-2 (33.33%)
- Against other G5 teams: 11-6 (66.67%) Actual: 9-8 (52.49%)
- Against FCS teams: 11-1 (92.86%) Actual: 12-0 (100%)
- Total: 28-20 (58.33%) Actual: 26-22 (54.17%)
As mentioned above, the Mountain West took a step forward in their work against P4 teams, winning one more game than their projection. They also dominated FCS teams, going a perfect 12-0 against them. However, the problem was against even competition. They lost more games than they won against the two PAC teams, and were pretty much .500 playing other G5 teams. Despite having a winning OOC record, it felt like the Mountain West had a poor showing in 2025.
More on this category in next week’s Peak Perspective.
FAIL (both overall and in two sub-categories)
Ranked Teams
The thought process here was that the Mountain West would have teams ranked for over half the season, and it would be even better if they had a team ranked at the end of the season.
Boise State began 2025 ranked, but their season-opening loss had them drop out of the rankings immediately. They never recovered, and the Mountain West wasn’t able to have any other team crack the rankings either. This one stings, as no truly great team was able to emerge this season.
FAIL
Bowl Eligible Teams
After getting five teams in 2024, putting seven teams in bowl games for 2025 was great. While it was accurate to say there wasn’t a great team in the Mountain West, there were several very good teams during the 2025 season. After all, making a bowl team basically means the teams are above-average, and that was clear this season. For teams like San Diego State, Utah State, Fresno State, Hawaii, and New Mexico, making a bowl game should be seen as a success. For programs like UNLV and Boise State, bowl games are the minimum standard. And for Colorado State and San Jose State this year, not making a bowl game is a huge disappointment.
Overall, the MW took a step forward this year for this category.
SUCCESS
Bowl Wins
Reaching four bowl wins was the goal for the 2025 season, although that was assuming they played in six games. Regardless of how many games they played, the idea was to be above .500. The Mountain West was not close to that goal at all, having one of their worst bowl seasons in recent memory. Only Fresno State and Hawaii took care of business, as the conference went 2-5 overall in their bowl games.
Despite only two teams winning, it should be noted that New Mexico played well, ultimately losing in overtime. And San Diego State played a close game, but their defense was picked apart. Otherwise, Boise State and UNLV looked awful, and Utah State was outmatched as well. Two victories for the conference are awful, no matter how much context is provided.
FAIL
National Storylines
It is important for the conference to produce topics and storylines that garner national attention in order to remain relevant. Basically, the Mountain West needed something to put them on the map and stand out in the college football world.
Here were the potential storylines that were identified as ideas back before the season started:
- One of the teams (potentially Boise State, San Jose State, or possibly UNLV) being ranked, or earning the G5 bid in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos dropped out of the rankings before Labor Day. While the Rebels got off to a strong start, they were playing above their weight class and never truly felt like a contender. San Diego State and New Mexico were nice stories, but not playoff contenders.
- A player being a finalist for a national award. There aren’t as many options in the preseason as last year, but it’s probably worth keeping an eye on guys like Matt Lauter or Pofele Ashlock, or perhaps someone who is currently under the radar. Kansei Matsuzawa emerged as a sensational story, kicking the game-winning field goal to open the season for Hawaii. He had a phenomenal year, earning the nickname “The Tokyo Toe” and becoming a Lou Groza Award finalist. Although he didn’t win, it was a great story for Matsuzawa, Hawaii, and the Mountain West.
- An unheralded team like Nevada or New Mexico pulling off a big upset at some point during the season. Not only did New Mexico get an upset win over UCLA, but they were also one of the best stories in college football this season. Jason Eck’s team was picked to finish last, and instead, they pulled off a nine-win season and their first bowl berth in nearly a decade. The college football world took notice.
SUCCESS
Playing in the College Football Playoff
Conferences are often judged based on the top teams. Most years, there is a P4 conference that hasn’t been great, but they have a top team to carry them year in and year out, so people don’t always notice or remember. Fair or not, that’s usually how it goes.
For the past few seasons, the Mountain West has arguably been a pretty deep conference, but it has lacked one elite team. And not making the College Football Playoff is seen as a failure for the conference.
This year, it was thought the Mountain West would be in the running for that CFP spot, but they never came close. Nearly every team stumbled out of the gate, and the ones who didn’t were paper tigers. Although last year was an exception, the conference has largely been full of above-average teams, and rarely does a team emerge that is head and shoulders above the rest.
While the criteria for success in this category are high, falling short is still a hard pill to swallow.
FAIL
Personal Predictions:
It’s time to look back at my personal predictions and own up to what I got right and wrong back in August:
- After a lot of coaching turnover the past two seasons, this year should be quieter. I expect no more than two coaching openings, with only one of those due to a firing. Jay Norvell was fired halfway through the season, and at the time of this writing, he is the only coach to move on this year. CORRECT
- New Mexico will finish last in the conference, while Nevada wins more than three games. I could not have been more wrong about the Lobos this year, although I was in good company with that thought. The Wolf Pack won exactly three games this season. HALF CORRECT
- Six teams will make a bowl game this year. I think five of them will be Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State, San Jose State, and UNLV. Colorado State and Hawaii will battle it out for the last spot, while the other falls just short. Instead, seven teams made bowl games. Out of the teams I thought would make bowl games, only four were actually correct. DOUBLE WRONG
- I expect two 10-win teams this season. I think Boise State has the best shot, and San Jose State will be the other team. UNLV was the only ten-win team in the Mountain West in 2025. DOUBLE WRONG
- There will be one undefeated team in conference play this season. No team was able to pull off this feat. WRONG
- The Mountain West championship game will feature Boise State and San Jose State. The Broncos made it, facing and beating UNLV for the third straight year. HALF CORRECT
- Air Force will not win the Commander in Chief Trophy this season, but will win one of those games after losing both in 2024. They did not win the CIC, nor did they beat either Army or Navy. HALF CORRECT
- The Falcons will bounce back and lead the conference in team rushing yards per game. The Spartans will do the same for passing yards per game. Air Force and San Jose State did not lead the conference in either category. Instead, UNLV led both. WRONG
- No MW player will be a national award finalist this season. As mentioned above, Matsuzawa was a Groza Finalist. WRONG
- None of the players who won the preseason awards will get those awards at the end of the season. Trey White III was probably the only player who had a shot, but Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams POY awards all went to different players, not the preseason selections. CORRECT
After an uneven year in 2024 with predictions, I had a terrible year in 2025. Only three and a half correct predictions, with five wrong ones, and two of those were wrong on multiple accounts. No one saw New Mexico coming, but I didn’t expect the conference to have no ten-win teams, another down year by Air Force, and being so wrong about bowl teams. I was happy to be wrong about the MW ending up as an award finalist.
Final thoughts:
Looking at the facts, it’s difficult to call the Mountain West’s 2025 season anything but a failure. Tallying up the categories above shows a mostly even balance of successes (3) and failures (4), but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Increasing the win total against P4 teams and having seven teams reach a bowl game are positives, but when the conference can win only two bowl games and goes .500 against other G5 teams, those positives are quickly negated. Many of those things may have looked better had there been one dominant team to lead the charge. There wasn’t, and the bright spots were overshadowed by the conference’s failures. The lone true success was the national storylines of New Mexico and Kansei Matsuzawa, which were embraced by all. Other than that, the Mountain West was starved for success and national relevance. It’s unfortunate, as it was the last football season for these 12 teams. The conference will look much different next year, and the path to success will be harder to travel in 2026.
Your turn: What other factors or areas should have been considered? What parts do you agree or disagree with? Leave a comment below.
