It was a rough weekend for Orioles star shortstop Gunnar Henderson. With two outs in the bottom of the 9th Saturday, Gunnar took a fastball to the ribs from Padres reliever Ron Marinaccio, presumably as retribution for Xander Bogaerts being hit in the head by a pitch earlier in the game. That moment sparked a bizarre reaction from manager Craig Albernaz postgame, as the skipper seemed to defend the intentions of the San Diego reliever more than his player. Things didn’t get much better Sunday, as Henderson made
two errors in the 9th that allowed an insurance run to score in another loss to the Padres.
His struggles against the Padres are not part of a developing situation with the former All-Star, but the continuation of a season filled with frustration and disappointment. The soon-to-be 25-year-old is on pace to set career-worsts in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and walk rate while seeing noticeable dips in his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
That’s not to say he’s been an outright bad player. His .715 OPS is right around league average. His OPS+ of 100 is exactly at league average. Despite his obvious struggles at the plate, he is still only two behind Pete Alonso for the Orioles’ home run lead, is tied for second on the team with 68 hits and is third with 34 RBIs. He’s still on pace for a bWAR around 3.0, which would be well below his career rate of 6+ bWAR per season, but still make him an above-average starter.
But as we near the halfway point of the 2026 season, it’s clear that his performance hasn’t been good enough to elevate this Orioles team above mediocrity. And unlike many of his teammates, the shortstop doesn’t seem to be making significant strides as the season goes on. On May 11th, when we last spoke on this site about Gunnar’s underwhelming performance, the Orioles’ country boy was slashing .211/.269/.421 (.690 OPS) with 9 HR, 21 RBI and 56 Ks in 171 ABs.
In 32 games since then, we’ve seen the Orioles’ presumed best player pick up his game somewhat. In that time frame, he’s slashing .250/.333/.414 (.747 OPS) with 5 HR, 13 RBI and 24 Ks in 128 ABs. The strikeout rate falling from just shy of 33% to just below 19% is easily the stars’ biggest improvement over the last month or so. But even those improved numbers would represent career lows in average and slugging and a near career low in on-base percentage.
During that same time period, we’ve seen several of his fellow Orioles take significant leaps in their offensive output. From May 11th onward, Pete Alonso is slashing 301/.364/.520 (.885 OPS) with 8 HRs and a 22% strikeout rate. The much-maligned Coby Mayo is slashing .241/.310/.519 (.829 OPS) with 6 HRs and a 37% strikeout rate. Colton Cowser has also begun to turn his season around since the middle of May, hitting .263 with a .897 OPS, 7 HRs and a 29% strikeout rate.
This is not to blame Gunnar for all of the Orioles problems, nor to say that good teams can’t survive cool patches from their stars. If you look around the league, you can find plenty of examples of teams finding success with underwhelming performances from star players. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez are struggling in Seattle and the Mariners still find themselves atop the AL West. The Braves are the best team in baseball despite superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. battling through a hamstring injury that’s cost him 18 games this season.
However, the Orioles’ path to success was meant to go through the route of an elite offense that props up an average to above-average pitching staff. After their recent offensive upturn, the O’s currently sit 8th in MLB at 4.7 runs/game. Baltimore is 14th in batting average at .243 and 11th in OPS at .728.
And while the offensive numbers are certainly good, they are also distinctly not great, and having a great offense seems to be the only thing that can propel the O’s to the postseason. Currently, the Orioles sit two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League (three games in the loss column).
Without changing anything about their pitching staff, Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball says the O’s would have to score about half a run more per game to make up the difference between them and the Rangers/A’s for the final AL playoff spot. That increase would also catapult them from 8th to 4th, just behind the Nationals, Dodgers and Brewers, and just ahead of the Yankees.
And while, yes, Adley Rutschman continuing his recent hot streak, or Jackson Holliday finding some measure of consistency, would undoubtedly upgrade this offense, the biggest missing piece right now is a fully operational Gunnar Henderson.
The West Coast road trip that starts today should provide Henderson with an opportunity to show how locked in he can be going forward. It starts with a rematch against the Seattle Mariners, a team that Gunnar has a .845 career OPS against, but which held him to a 2-for-14 series last week at Camden Yards. The O’s then travel to the two-time defending champion Dodgers, a team that has stymied Henderson to the tune of a .546 career OPS. Make it past LA and he heads to Anaheim with his 1.203 career OPS against the Angels—his best mark against any single opponent. All three series should offer opportunities for him to continue to make adjustments against tough pitching and build confidence at the plate.
With 89 games left to play, the story of the 2026 season is far from complete for both Gunnar Henderson and the Orioles. But more than anyone, Baltimore needs their best player and face of the franchise to play like his best self if they want to improve upon their current 13.5% odds to make it to the postseason.
