Heading into the season, we knew the Celtics would be searching for their identity. When you know Jayson Tatum will spend most of the year (if not all) in street clothes, and you say goodbye to Al Horford, Jrue Holiday, Luke Kornet, and Kristaps Porziņģis, it was clear Boston would take a step back. The question was: how far back?
Even with the departures, the Celtics still feature a Finals MVP, a multi-time All-Defense player, and a Sixth Man of the Year. On the other hand, they’re also relying on
an unproven center rotation and a wing group casual fans could barely name. Now ten games in, what have we learned?
At a macro level, the Celtics aren’t a bad basketball team — but they’re struggling to overcome structural weaknesses night to night. They play connected, intentional basketball. It’s clear what Joe Mazzulla wants: win the possession battle by avoiding turnovers (1st in the league) and forcing them (3rd), limit rim attempts (4th in shots allowed at the rim), limit opponent threes (23rd in opponent three-point frequency), and take plenty of their own (2nd in three-point rate).
They’re achieving those goals, but their achilles’ heel — defensive rebounding — is outweighing everything else. We expected rebounding to be a problem, but through ten games, it’s been catastrophic: Boston ranks 28th in defensive rebound percentage. Mazzulla has emphasized it since preseason, even subbing players out after giving up offensive boards. But when you’re undersized every night, there’s only so much you can do. This deficiency is the single biggest reason the Celtics look more likely to fall out of the Play-In than climb into the top six.
On the bright side, Jaylen Brown looks healthy — and dominant. After an injury-plagued finish to last season and the playoffs, Brown is on a tear: 10th in the league in scoring on 62.3% true shooting, both career highs. He’s been unstoppable at the rim (85%), rediscovered his midrange mastery (51%), and hitting 37% from deep — his best mark since 2020–21.
Aside from Tatum’s Achilles recovery, nothing is more important to the Celtics’ long-term success than Brown returning to Finals MVP form. The question is whether he can sustain this workload. Brown’s 34.9% usage rate isn’t just a career high (previous high: 30.1% in 2022–23) — it’s third in the entire league, behind only Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Celtics need everything he’s giving them. If he can’t carry that load, they’ll tumble down the standings.
This team isn’t built to survive cold shooting stretches — and certainly not the worst one of Derrick White’s Celtics tenure. White is hitting just 26% from three, easily the lowest of his career (previous low: 31.2%). His shot diet has gotten tougher without Tatum to draw defensive attention. Still, he’s missing wide-open looks at an alarming rate: 32.4% on shots with six feet of space, compared to 40–42% in each of the past three seasons.
White thrives on confidence, and right now, he looks hesitant. It’s worth noting that he’s had similar slumps before — last January, he shot 27.7% from three over a 10-game stretch, and the team went 5–5. It just feels worse now because it’s all we’ve seen this season.
Josh Minott is proving he belongs in the NBA. I’m salivating at the idea of a lineup of Minott, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, (Big Man that Brad Stevens acquires (is that Al Horford’s music??)). Minott is exactly the kind of long, athletic, high-energy wing Boston has been chasing for years. That’s why they drafted Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, and Hugo González: to find a player who could ease the rebounding and physical burden on Brown and Tatum.
Minott adds that spark — and can even knock down a corner three. His story makes it sweeter: a player nearly out of the league now starting for the Celtics and likely contributing to their next title chase.
Hugo González might’ve been designed in a Joe Mazzulla lab. His psychotic hustle is infectious — sprinting back to challenge Quentin Grimes at the rim, crashing into the stanchion, popping up like nothing happened. You can’t teach pyscho.
Beyond the intensity, González already flashes elite defensive potential. He’s bothered everyone from Tyrese Maxey, Cade Cunningham to Paolo Banchero. The fouling (7.2% foul rate, 1st percentile) is classic rookie stuff. Once he figures that out, he has the tools to fulfil his destiny as Spanish Kawhi.
I didn’t believe Neemias Queta could be a legitimate rotation big. I was wrong. He’s been one of Boston’s most impactful players. If you rank the most irreplaceable Celtics right now, Jaylen Brown is in a tier of his own — but Queta might be next.
With Queta on the floor, Boston has a +14.4 net rating. Without him, it’s –20.5. That’s staggering. His growth in drop coverage has been key — he’s managing pick-and-roll space far better, protecting the rim, and showing improving chemistry as a roll man. The touch around the basket still needs work (that baseline floater against the Magic that hit the side of the backboard comes to mind), but the progress is real.
Floater brick aside. Stock up on Neemias Queta.
Luka Garza and Anfernee Simons have been capable tank commanders. Garza’s limitations are well-known — slow-footed, reliant on floaters, missing a lot of threes, tough fit in the modern game. Simons’ lack of offensive versatility has been the bigger surprise. Aside from elite catch-and-shoot ability, he’s been ineffective: high turnover rate (82nd percentile), low rim frequency (23rd percentile), and poor creation for others (15th percentile in assist-to-usage ratio).
Defensively, he’s been better than expected — but that’s a low bar. Together, Garza and Simons are an aggressive net negative. When they share the floor, Boston’s net rating is –14.4; when they sit, it’s +14.7. It’s hard to win games when your main bench pairing bleeds points on both ends.
Through ten games, we’ve learned that while the Celtics are more likely to land a top-10 pick than a top-6 seed, their long-term outlook remains bright. Jaylen Brown looks like an All-NBA player again. The future wing rotation — with Minott and González — is promising. Payton Pritchard is a bucket from everywhere, and Neemias Queta is developing into a reliable backup big.
Once you add a healthy Jayson Tatum back into the mix, the Celtics will once again find themselves among the Eastern Conference elite.
