This weekend (Sat., Oct. 10, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return home to Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 122. I don’t care how many knockouts happened last week at UFC 332 (record setting!), we’re in the midst of a UFC slump. There hasn’t been a particularly meaningful fight in the last two weeks, and that’s not going to change on Saturday! On the bright side, hopefully the recent matchmaking trend toward squash matches produces some exciting highlights … and maybe
bumps my pick percentage up by a point or two?
We’re heading to Apex, and everybody should know what that entails by now. Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:
Lightweight: Jai Herbert (+148) vs. Matheus Camilo (-192)Best Win for Herbert? Kyle Nelson For Camilo? Nadim Sadykhov
Current Streak: Herbert won his last bout, while Camilo has won two in a row
X-Factor: Camilo is 13 years younger
How these two match up: This should be quite fun for however long it lasts.
I have a soft spot for fighters like Herbert, gritty and technical veterans who don’t quite have the athletic chops to become top contenders. The rangy “Black Country Banger” can always be counted upon to get after it, putting on fun scraps while testing up-and-comers — a necessary cog in UFC’s machine. Camilo, 25, is the prospect here. The Brazilian “Jaguar” has been inconsistent in his first three UFC fights, producing a one-sided loss, a boring lay-and-pray victory, and a shocking knockout win (relive that here). He’s shown flashes of great standup skill and brilliant timing, but he can also be quite low-volume.
This is a truly difficult fight to predict. Herbert is a bit of a glass cannon, and Camilo certainly has the power to shatter him. As a general rule, you want to side with fighters who are 13 years younger than their opposition. Conversely, Herbert has more high-level experience, and you also don’t want to bet against opponents who possess an eight-inch advantage.
I could see Herbert getting smoke early by a counter punch. I could also see him poking at Camilo with jabs and kicks, and increasingly building a numbers advantage as the rounds wear on. Both ways the fight could unfold are completely reasonable …
Prediction: Herbert via decision
Strawweight: Loopy Godinez (-245) vs. Ketlen Souza (+186)Best Win for Godinez? Jessica Andrade For Souza? Yazmin Jauregui
Current Streak: Godinez lost her last bout, while Souza has won two straight
X-Factor: Souza can crack
How these two match up: I must confess that I find Godinez fights fairly unwatchable.
Don’t get me wrong, she’s damn good Strawweight. Godinez has solid kickboxing skills, above-average wrestling, and the cardio to push hard for 15 minutes. Unless she’s absolutely out-classing her opponents, however, the chance of a finish is small, while the chance of a competitive decision is high (spoiler alert!). Souza, conversely, is less technical and more fun to watch. She follows in the mold of Jessica Andrade, pushing a hard pace and swinging heavy hooks at the body and chin alike.
Can Souza make a Godinez fight compelling? Possibly! On the feet, she can match her volume and exceed her with pure power, even if her boxing isn’t quite as sharp. The biggest question is whether Souza can withstand the takedowns of Godinez, and that’s where I have much less confidence. It wasn’t all that long ago that Souza lost consecutive fights largely due to takedowns, and those defeats came against lesser wrestlers than Godinez.
Godinez blends her kickboxing into her wrestling well. She might have to survive a couple hard shots or a late surge from the Brazilian, but she’s going to spend a lot of this fight in top position, wearing down her opponent.
Prediction: Godinez via decision
Featherweight: Andre Fili (-150) vs. Kai Kamaka III (+118)Best Win for Fili? Cub Swanson For Kamaka? Bubba Jenkins
Current Streak: Fili has lost his last two, while Kamaka lost his last bout
X-Factor: Both men were stopped by strikes over summer
How these two match up: This collision of Featherweight veterans should be a lot of fun.
Fili has been on UFC’s roster for 13 years now and is starting to climb up the Featherweight records for longevity. A slick distance striker, Fili blasts opponents with powerful kicks from both stances, then times counter shots and takedowns alike when they try to push forward. Kamaka, meanwhile, is on his second UFC stint after a career interlude in PFL. He’s a high-volume combination puncher who sets a heavy pace, and he’s a capable wrestler as well.
Both of these men are hard-nosed vets who rarely shy away from a scrap. I do feel, however, that most of the advantages are on the side of “Touchy.” He’s the more powerful knockout artist, better kicker, holds a five inch reach advantage, and has generally faced the higher level of competition throughout his career. Kamaka’s great edge here is raw output, but one has to assume that the jab and body kicks of Fili will slow him down.
Fili is likely to get the kind of distance striking battle he enjoys here, and his long range weapons should be able to mitigate the boxing of “The Fighting Hawaiian.”
Prediction: Fili via decision
Light Heavyweight: Julius Walker (-295) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+220)Best Win for Walker? Rafael Cerqueira For Meerschaert? Edmen Shahbazyan
Current Streak:Walker has lost two in a row, while “GM3” is “O” for his last FIVE
X-Factor: Meerschaert is heading up to 205 pounds
How these two match up: This is … not great.
Walker made it to UFC too soon. It’s that simple. He has the athletic talent and size to be a UFC Light Heavyweight success, but his game isn’t developed, and learning on the job in a division where everybody hits really hard is a rough gig. He has some wrestling and clinch skills, but he’s just shockingly hittable on the feet, which remains a major liability.
“GM3” has roughly the opposite problem: he’s ancient. With respect to all the 38-year-olds reading this column, I’m more referring to Meerschaert’s overall career. This is his 60th professional fight, and the historically iron chin has definitely declined alongside his general athleticism.
There is, of course, a chance that Meerschaert’s weight class shift will inject some life into his career. Maybe the cut was killing was his performance. On paper, there’s no reason why Meerschaert cannot simply blast his left kick into Walker’s liver then snatch up a guillotine when his opponent frantically tries to wrestle. Five years ago, this kind of style clash would be a layup for the veteran.
Nowadays, I don’t trust it. Meerschaert is too fragile now. At 27 years of age, Walker should be larger, stronger, and full of piss and vinegar to keep his position on the roster. If he shoves his way into the clinch to attack with knees and elbows, I’m not sure Meerschaert will have an answer.
Prediction: Walker via knockout
Bantamweight: Malcolm Wellmaker (-235) vs. Otari Tanzilovi (+180)Best Win for Wellmaker? Cameron Saaiman For Tanzilovi? Guillermo Torres
Current Streak: Wellmaker has lost two in a row, while Tanzilovi recently lost his UFC debut
X-Factor: Wellmaker recently started training at American Top Team (ATT)
How these two match up: We have a classic striker vs. wrestler matchup between Bantamweight prospects.
Wellmaker started his UFC run a fiery pair of knockout wins, immediately gaining some momentum. Alas, consecutive losses to Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz demonstrated there was still more for the athletic knockout artist to learn. Tanzilovi, meanwhile, is still searching for his first UFC win. The Georgian wrestler can be relentless with his takedowns, but he’s struggled to land enough significant offense to sway the judges to his corner in a pair of close losses on Contender Series and in the Octagon proper.
To his credit, Tanzilovi does have seven knockout wins on his record against a lower level of competition.
Tanzilovi is a fairly straightforward challenge, a strong wrestler and good athlete. If Wellmaker — with his size, range and knockout power — cannot handle this matchup, it’s well and truly over. Fortunately, ATT is one of the best gyms in the country to learn how to grapple. Getting up after being taken down is a gym specialty, and they should also help Wellmaker fill in the gaps in his standup, like scoring points while looking for that nasty check hook.
Basically, I still have some faith that Wellmaker can find success in UFC, and so I think he can bounce back here.
